SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I posted that a couple of times tonight, the agreement is actually pretty dam good this far out. I have seen much much worse agreement in past storms at this stage. But you ignore the Euro...sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEM ensembles are surprisingly fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hey 10 percent aint bad. Most exciting weather since last years snowtober. OT but figured Id post this http://imageshack.us...451/imagehz.jpg Wouldnt you love seeing a WSW and a Tornado warning in the same county. Pretty awesome. No but not at 930MB or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I know someone's posted this before but this really tells the story To be fair, none of them showed an EC hit at 12z. But "trends" don't really matter at this point in the game. We need to take a step back and focus on large scale things, like what Paul was saying before, rather than over-analyze every little nuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A retrograding superstorm would be so fascinating to watch from a meteorological prospective. Just imaging it would be so freakin incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 I do not think the story is anywhere close to being told. GFS ENS are so much different than EURO ENS, GGEM ENS that it creates doubt. I think there are a few possible outcomes here. 1) ridging breaks down just enough to the NE of Sandy that the storm is able to drift ENE from the Bahamas and escape. 2) Ridging keeps the storm paralleling the eastern seaboard but the upstream flow remains relatively flat or the shortwaves just don't time out and the storm is never captured. Solutions here range from strong hybrid kind of storm that brushes, a Noel solution, or a drift OTS. 3) Apocalyptic Euro/GGEM combo. I'd say 1 and 2 are about equally likely. 3 is exceptionally unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEM ensembles are surprisingly fast. GGEM is surprisingly fast, and not 24 hrs faster but days and days faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEM ensembles are surprisingly fast. Clearly an LI Express 2 is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And when you look at the tropical models on Sandy, many of them are GFS based so obviously there is a right bias there. To be fair, none of them showed an EC hit at 12z. But "trends" don't really matter at this point in the game. We need to take a step back and focus on large scale things, like what Paul was saying before, rather than over-analyze every little nuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 I posted that a couple of times tonight, the agreement is actually pretty dam good this far out. I have seen much much worse agreement in past storms at this stage. To be fair, none of them showed an EC hit at 12z. But "trends" don't really matter at this point in the game. We need to take a step back and focus on large scale things, like what Paul was saying before, rather than over-analyze every little nuance. Oh, no doubt. And I actually meant that they tell the story in that there are several viable options. The main cluster is OTS with a weakness in the ridge but there are outliers that are quite interesting. That's what I meant in that post not that the model consensus on the GEFS was OTS so no worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEM ensembles are surprisingly fast. The OP GGEM was also quite fast as well, no? It was making landfall in S NJ just before day 7 whereas the Euro didn't hit Boston until day 10, practically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think there are a few possible outcomes here. 1) ridging breaks down just enough to the NE of Sandy that the storm is able to drift ENE from the Bahamas and escape. 2) Ridging keeps the storm paralleling the eastern seaboard but the upstream flow remains relatively flat or the shortwaves just don't time out and the storm is never captured. Solutions here range from strong hybrid kind of storm that brushes, a Noel solution, or a drift OTS. 3) Apocalyptic Euro/GGEM combo. I'd say 1 and 2 are about equally likely. 3 is exceptionally unlikely. fully agree I lean to option 1 or a mix of option 1 and 2, not as far east as the GFS but still hundreds of miles off the coast and if it does phase, it will be NE of the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 The OP GGEM was also quite fast as well, no? It was making landfall in S NJ just before day 7 whereas the Euro didn't hit Boston until day 10, practically. Yeah the op GGEM was very fast. Over us by like 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This storm is like a severe weather setup during the spring or summer. You know something will happen, but you dont know where, dont know when, and dont know how strong. You just wait, and the circle will eventually get smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 John, with your post above regarding the navy model...what the heck is pulling it back in so hard toward the end of that run? it looks like the storm gets captured by the trough...does the trough just go crazy negative after that? What sends the trough crazy like that...the dying low in northern canada? I used the humor "event horizon" earlier as a quipped metaphor - there is something to be said of that metaphor though. TCs always take the path of least resistance/steering. Initially, the steering (GFS is out to lunch imo) is straight N/NNE in that run. Up comes a 'cane. As the trough goes negatively tilted and begins to close off the entire domain is shifting in axis that leans backwards - that directs the steering field toward the NW as the trough closes off. The TC is at the point in time too close to the trough and it slips inside; once inside, there is no escape. That 6 hour period creates a huge feed-back to intensity as this goes into a hybrid phase state because it is infusing a tremendous amount of bouyancy into the heart of negatively differentiating heights - that creates some fantastic upward vertical motion. That is why counter to intelligence this blows up as it passes over the shelf waters, and we see the deepest solutions being N of the Gulf Stream as the system is nearing land - it's getting just a massive baroclinic assist at those points in time. Following, at that point the TC is entirely already captured and resumes a motion toward the west around the N wall of the deeper layer closed off low as a transitioning phase. This storm is entirely cold core by the time its winding down 24 hours later. Might even slam in with a dose of 70dp air that's secluded, and that same region could have wet flakes of snow in backside CAA 2 days later. The other aspect in play is latent heat injected into the down stream ridge near NS - as the TC comes up it's bringing a massive dose/infusion of latent heat that gets dumped into that ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A retrograding superstorm would be so fascinating to watch from a meteorological prospective. Just imaging it would be so freakin incredible. Well March 2001 (2000?) was pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 fully agree I lean to option 1 or a mix of option 1 and 2, not as far east as the GFS but still hundreds of miles off the coast and if it does phase, it will be NE of the United States. I have been peaking in at this subforum to view some of the varying thoughts across the regions. Do you really need to keep stating your thoughts? You are beating a dead horse. I think we all know that you think it will go wide right. You've probably said it 30 times this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I used the humor "event horizon" earlier as a quipped metaphor - there is something to be said of that metaphor though. TCs always take the path of least resistance/steering. Initially, the steering (GFS is out to lunch imo) is straight N/NNE in that run. Up comes a 'cane. As the trough goes negatively tilted and begins to close off the entire domain is shifting in axis that leans backwards - that directs the steering field toward the NW as the trough closes off. The TC is at the point in time too close to the trough and it slips inside; once inside, there is no escape. That 6 hour period creates a huge feed-back to intensity as this goes into a hybrid phase state because it is infusing a tremendous amount of bouyancy into the heart of negatively differentiating heights - that creates some fantastic upward vertical motion. That is why counter to intelligence this blows up as it passes over the shelf waters, and we see the deepest solutions being N of the Gulf Stream as the system is nearing land - it's getting just a massive baroclinic assist at those points in time. Following, at that point the TC is entirely already captured and resumes a motion toward the west around the N wall of the deeper layer closed off low as a transitioning phase. This storm is entirely cold core by the time its winding down 24 hours later. Might even slam in with a dose of 70dp air that's secluded, and that same region could have wet flakes of snow in backside CAA 2 days later. The other aspect in play is latent heat injected into the down stream ridge near NS - as the TC comes up it's bringing a massive dose/infusion of latent heat that gets dumped into that ridge Hazel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well March 2001 (2000?) was pretty close. Before my time of having a clue unfortunately. 04/05 I was about 13/14 and just catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well we could still get a hurricane lol. The Euro is not going to happen however. A 927mb low south of MVY moving to the NW???? No effin way. It sure as hell would be a first - Buuut, you have to concede to one point; there's been millions of years of data on the eastern seaboard that man kind is not privy too, and it is impossible to say that at some point in that eternal length of time something similar has never happened. Hell, maybe this is an artifice of GW, where that somehow causes early season convoluted flows that risk exotic capture scenarios. I understand that "no way" though. I tell you what - if that happens, that's a killer. And I don't mean that as a euphemism - that will kill people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 It sure as hell would be a first - Buuut, you have to concede to one point; there's been millions of years of data on the eastern seaboard that man kind is not privy too, and it is impossible to say that at some point in that eternal length of time something similar has never happened. Hell, maybe this is an artifice of GW, where that somehow causes early season convoluted flows that risk exotic capture scenarios. I understand that "no way" though. I tell you what - if that happens, that's a killer. And I don't mean that as a euphemism - that will kill people. It would be a 1938/Hazel kind of scenario. I feel like we've seen a number of storms that the models have tried to take NW into the Delmarva or NJ or SNE only to have them slide safely OTS. Maybe we've been lucky (what if Isabel was 200 miles north?) but I just feel like this kind of event is so unusual and the models seem to always be a bit phase happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It would be a 1938/Hazel kind of scenario. I feel like we've seen a number of storms that the models have tried to take NW into the Delmarva or NJ or SNE only to have them slide safely OTS. Maybe we've been lucky (what if Isabel was 200 miles north?) but I just feel like this kind of event is so unusual and the models seem to always be a bit phase happy. Yes, but I was referring to 927 nightmare. Agreed with the unusual nature, wholeheartedly. It may not be so much a matter of luck but shear mathematics in the matter. There's just such a narrow physical parameters that would cause the "perfect" integration. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It would be a 1938/Hazel kind of scenario. I feel like we've seen a number of storms that the models have tried to take NW into the Delmarva or NJ or SNE only to have them slide safely OTS. Maybe we've been lucky (what if Isabel was 200 miles north?) but I just feel like this kind of event is so unusual and the models seem to always be a bit phase happy. next 2 to 3 days should be key then...we should see them start to move away from the solution if that's the case.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 next 2 to 3 days should be key then...we should see them start to move away from the solution if that's the case.... Yeah I think in the next 2-3 days we should see whether or not the downstream ridging will indeed be sufficient enough to take a op GFS solution off the tabel and keep this thing within striking distance of the east coast. Once we nail that down we'll have to figure out how/where/when a phase will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Man, I guess is cool to be conservative now, sometimes is fun to get excited you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Hazel? There would have to be a comparative re-analysis of the differentiation between symmetric to asymmetric phase transition with both, but unfortunately we won't know until this one's in the books. If it ever gets there. In other words, a discrete analysis. The governing set up similar, but the devil's in the details. I think that one thing that differentiates this from Hazel is that the trough that captured Hazel was no longer deepening at the time that contact was ingested. In this case, the Euro modeled trough is just turning negative and deepening on its own rite when gulp - in slips even a tropical storm is huge - it's timing. The Euro fuses at just the right time where the physics appear to use the actual TC vortex, and converts IT into the negative tilted trough's position for the wave. So what do you have - at that point you have an already deep spiral in the column that taps directly into difluence aloft - holy shistle. That's why its deepening it so madly. It really is a perfect scenario. I think the longer odds are again that timing in this is a real, real delicate procedure - it's doing this from a 6 or 7 day lead, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yes, but I was referring to 927 nightmare. Agreed with the unusual nature, wholeheartedly. It may not be so much a matter of luck but shear mathematics in the matter. There's just such a narrow physical parameters that would cause the "perfect" integration. Fascinating. 927 is as close to impossible as you can come, its 99.99999% impossible. Its a known bias of the Euro, we saw this with Irene it had it hitting NJ with a presure in the 930s, it will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 927 is as close to impossible as you can come, its 99.99999% impossible. Its a known bias of the Euro, we saw this with Irene it had it hitting NJ with a presure in the 930s, it will not happen. Please explain, in detail, the physical dynamics preventing Hazel from achieving 927 in the NE or SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 927 is as close to impossible as you can come, its 99.99999% impossible. Its a known bias of the Euro, we saw this with Irene it had it hitting NJ with a presure in the 930s, it will not happen. And you know this because - no, your logic is entirely flawed comparing Irene to what's modeled by the GGEM and Euro, and NOGAPs by the way. Hell, the NOGAPS takes the thing to 940!! Irene's leading synoptics bear 0 likeness physically to these model solutions. Settle down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 927 is as close to impossible as you can come, its 99.99999% impossible. Its a known bias of the Euro, we saw this with Irene it had it hitting NJ with a presure in the 930s, it will not happen. Unless if its a warm seclusion then anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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