CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12" of rain followed by days of 50 knot winds? Who thinks the GFS will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Have to really watch how the models handling the blocking they are developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The GFS is really remarkable. Let's hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 GGEM is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I actually think the 12z GGEM solution is the most reasonable. Storm remains separate and stays out to sea while a lot of moisture gets thrown back to the coast and you wind up with a large area of QG lift on the east coast that's just loaded with tropical moisture. Hydro issues are a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'll post this one here too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Lots of spread in the GEFS members. Ensemble mean is fast too... off ACK by 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I actually think the 12z GGEM solution is the most reasonable. Storm remains separate and stays out to sea while a lot of moisture gets thrown back to the coast and you wind up with a large area of QG lift on the east coast that's just loaded with tropical moisture. Hydro issues are a distinct possibility. Yeah I think the moisture will somehow get involved here. It's obviously early, but I don't see a big reason not to think at least some of its moisture gets involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The op GFS is weird. It's really the downstream ridging that you mentioned... at 180 hours or so there's not a big trough digging/cutting off over the Great Lakes that you'd expect to see. An odd synoptic evolution IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The op GFS is weird. It's really the downstream ridging that you mentioned... at 180 hours or so there's not a big trough digging/cutting off over the Great Lakes that you'd expect to see. An odd synoptic evolution IMO. Yeah when I first saw it, I thought maybe OTS. However the ridging goes nuclear off to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I think tides are high towards the end of the month perhaps? Didn't look, figured Sultan would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Joe Joyce talked about the potential storm in his blog and also pretty much promised accumulating snow for the Boston area in November... That is exactly what is happening in this upcoming week, -NAO, blocking high over Greenland and a developing trough along the east coast for late October into early November. The pattern with make for some unsettled weather up the east coast toward Halloween, but the real story will be the cold invasion into the US which may stick around through much of the month of November in a more highly amplitude pattern, which will be more favorable for storms and snow. Expect an early outbreak of lake effect snow across the Great Lakeswith this cold. The Climate Prediction Center issued their 8-14 day forecast and it looks much colder all the way down to the Gulf. I am pretty sure we will likely pick up our first accumulating snow in the month of November, at some point. This should get mighty interesting. Miss summer yet? We are just getting started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12" of rain followed by days of 50 knot winds? Who thinks the GFS will verify? Ha! you're conservative on the QPF when the hashed out area 9+ inches has a 20" bull's eye a mere 100 miles south of CT. anyway, the NOGAPS jumped on board on this 12z run so yeah - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I ultimately believe that the presence of a 100 kt easterly jet at 250 mb, just east of Newfoundland, is the number one indicator of the potential for an historic event at this lead-time. First, this feature is an indication of how blocked the pattern is, and will allow a system to retrograde into the northeast. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I suspect the u component of wind is approaching 5 sigma below normal. Second, the potential for co-location of the left exit region of this easterly jet (which happens to be to the south of the jet) with the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast will create a large region favorable for massive height falls. This could potentially allow the system to continue to deepen even after becoming extratropical and / or moving over land. Whether or not this feature actually verifies in conjunction with a tropical / subtropical / extratropical entity will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I ultimately believe that the presence of a 100 kt easterly jet at 250 mb, just east of Newfoundland, is the number one indicator of the potential for an historic event at this lead-time. First, this feature is an indication of how blocked the pattern is, and will allow a system to retrograde into the northeast. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I suspect the u component of wind is approaching 5 sigma below normal. Second, the potential for co-location of the left exit region of this easterly jet (which happens to be to the south of the jet) with the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast will create a large region favorable for massive height falls. This could potentially allow the system to continue to deepen even after becoming extratropical and / or moving over land. Whether or not this feature actually verifies in conjunction with a tropical / subtropical / extratropical entity will be key. Good catch with the erly jet. Wow, that has to be close to 5 sigma SD. LOL, you never see that so far south this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Good catch with the erly jet. Wow, that has to be close to 5 sigma SD. LOL, you never see that so far south this time of year. Wow, yeah. Wasn't even paying attention to that. I saw the monster height anomalies but that is one hell of a block. That is the setup for something historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z ECMWF is further west and faster than the GFS by 132 hours. Just really weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I ultimately believe that the presence of a 100 kt easterly jet at 250 mb, just east of Newfoundland, is the number one indicator of the potential for an historic event at this lead-time. First, this feature is an indication of how blocked the pattern is, and will allow a system to retrograde into the northeast. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I suspect the u component of wind is approaching 5 sigma below normal. Second, the potential for co-location of the left exit region of this easterly jet (which happens to be to the south of the jet) with the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast will create a large region favorable for massive height falls. This could potentially allow the system to continue to deepen even after becoming extratropical and / or moving over land. Whether or not this feature actually verifies in conjunction with a tropical / subtropical / extratropical entity will be key. It's interesting you brought this up because I was just taking note of that powerful jet just N of Maine, and noting a study that showed most EC/New England hurricanes also had that feature. The jet east of NF is interesting, though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Good catch with the erly jet. Wow, that has to be close to 5 sigma SD. LOL, you never see that so far south this time of year. The -NAO is a for real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z ECM is just off of the east coast of Florida by 144 hours. 500mb anoms by 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 looks like this run is a tamer straight up TC threat followed by a pattern change - ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 lol the Euro is going to be fun. Watch how the storm strengthens as it approaches the coast. Definitely looks hybrid-like with getting a monster baroclinic assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro moves it towards the MA coastline at hr 180. And congrats SW Michigan on a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks like right into DE coast with big winds in NJ per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Look at that 1035 high to the north. Winter harbinger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 970mb low over IPT on the Euro. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Right into ern PA as a bomb. Big winds on the coast, but DC is washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Look at that 1035 high to the north. Winter harbinger? Yeah that's a blizzard further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 And some snow for IN/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wow, just like that - all majors onboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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