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Who Needs Hazel When You Have Sandy


CT Rain

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I actually think the 12z GGEM solution is the most reasonable. Storm remains separate and stays out to sea while a lot of moisture gets thrown back to the coast and you wind up with a large area of QG lift on the east coast that's just loaded with tropical moisture.

Hydro issues are a distinct possibility.

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I actually think the 12z GGEM solution is the most reasonable. Storm remains separate and stays out to sea while a lot of moisture gets thrown back to the coast and you wind up with a large area of QG lift on the east coast that's just loaded with tropical moisture.

Hydro issues are a distinct possibility.

Yeah I think the moisture will somehow get involved here. It's obviously early, but I don't see a big reason not to think at least some of its moisture gets involved.

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The op GFS is weird. It's really the downstream ridging that you mentioned... at 180 hours or so there's not a big trough digging/cutting off over the Great Lakes that you'd expect to see. An odd synoptic evolution IMO.

Yeah when I first saw it, I thought maybe OTS. However the ridging goes nuclear off to the northeast.

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Joe Joyce talked about the potential storm in his blog and also pretty much promised accumulating snow for the Boston area in November...

That is exactly what is happening in this upcoming week, -NAO, blocking high over Greenland and a developing trough along the east coast for late October into early November. The pattern with make for some unsettled weather up the east coast toward Halloween, but the real story will be the cold invasion into the US which may stick around through much of the month of November in a more highly amplitude pattern, which will be more favorable for storms and snow.

Expect an early outbreak of lake effect snow across the Great Lakeswith this cold. The Climate Prediction Center issued their 8-14 day forecast and it looks much colder all the way down to the Gulf. I am pretty sure we will likely pick up our first accumulating snow in the month of November, at some point. This should get mighty interesting. Miss summer yet? We are just getting started!

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12" of rain followed by days of 50 knot winds? Who thinks the GFS will verify?

Ha! you're conservative on the QPF when the hashed out area 9+ inches has a 20" bull's eye a mere 100 miles south of CT.

anyway, the NOGAPS jumped on board on this 12z run so yeah -

lol

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I ultimately believe that the presence of a 100 kt easterly jet at 250 mb, just east of Newfoundland, is the number one indicator of the potential for an historic event at this lead-time.

First, this feature is an indication of how blocked the pattern is, and will allow a system to retrograde into the northeast. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I suspect the u component of wind is approaching 5 sigma below normal. Second, the potential for co-location of the left exit region of this easterly jet (which happens to be to the south of the jet) with the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast will create a large region favorable for massive height falls. This could potentially allow the system to continue to deepen even after becoming extratropical and / or moving over land.

Whether or not this feature actually verifies in conjunction with a tropical / subtropical / extratropical entity will be key.

post-378-0-51582900-1350842755_thumb.gif

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I ultimately believe that the presence of a 100 kt easterly jet at 250 mb, just east of Newfoundland, is the number one indicator of the potential for an historic event at this lead-time.

First, this feature is an indication of how blocked the pattern is, and will allow a system to retrograde into the northeast. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I suspect the u component of wind is approaching 5 sigma below normal. Second, the potential for co-location of the left exit region of this easterly jet (which happens to be to the south of the jet) with the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast will create a large region favorable for massive height falls. This could potentially allow the system to continue to deepen even after becoming extratropical and / or moving over land.

Whether or not this feature actually verifies in conjunction with a tropical / subtropical / extratropical entity will be key.

post-378-0-51582900-1350842755_thumb.gif

Good catch with the erly jet. Wow, that has to be close to 5 sigma SD. LOL, you never see that so far south this time of year.

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Good catch with the erly jet. Wow, that has to be close to 5 sigma SD. LOL, you never see that so far south this time of year.

Wow, yeah. Wasn't even paying attention to that. I saw the monster height anomalies but that is one hell of a block.

That is the setup for something historic.

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I ultimately believe that the presence of a 100 kt easterly jet at 250 mb, just east of Newfoundland, is the number one indicator of the potential for an historic event at this lead-time.

First, this feature is an indication of how blocked the pattern is, and will allow a system to retrograde into the northeast. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I suspect the u component of wind is approaching 5 sigma below normal. Second, the potential for co-location of the left exit region of this easterly jet (which happens to be to the south of the jet) with the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast will create a large region favorable for massive height falls. This could potentially allow the system to continue to deepen even after becoming extratropical and / or moving over land.

Whether or not this feature actually verifies in conjunction with a tropical / subtropical / extratropical entity will be key.

post-378-0-51582900-1350842755_thumb.gif

It's interesting you brought this up because I was just taking note of that powerful jet just N of Maine, and noting a study that showed most EC/New England hurricanes also had that feature. The jet east of NF is interesting, though .

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