CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 So where are we going? Here is a look at the 00z GEFS and 00z EC ensembles at d10. I think this gives an idea heading into late October. Here is the difference. Notice the difference in blocking up by the Aleutians. Why is this? Well it may be related to what's going on with tropical convection in the west PAC. While the tropical convection as modeled doesn't completely agree with the so called temp correlations in October and what is forecasted (a reason why I'm not a big fan of using these in the Fall), the physical forcing behind them could be enough to adjust the height anomalies. Also, there is a TC modeled in the carb on all models. If this moves east well off the East coast. this may act to pull down colder air from Canada. If it moves in the Gulf of Mexico, we may see ridging over the east. So, lots to think about here, and it could be an interesting end to October over parts of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 What you don't see going forward, is the EC cooling off the nrn tier, while the GEFS remain milder with a more -PNA pattern. You can see how that begins looking at hr 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 That is a pretty significant difference in the placement with that High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 That is a pretty significant difference in the placement with that High Yeah that means a significant discrepancy exists. What I could see going forward, is a pattern that maybe features a cold shot..then maybe a low cutting west and then another cold shot..perhaps deeper than the one before...possibly something like that. Maybe the north central US takes the brunt of any colder air. I'm not sure of any extended cold or warm anomalies here, but we'll see what the 12z suite brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Yeah that means a significant discrepancy exists. What I could see going forward, is a pattern that maybe features a cold shot..then maybe a low cutting west and then another cold shot..perhaps deeper than the one before...possibly something like that. Maybe the north central US takes the brunt of any colder air. I'm not sure of any extended cold or warm anomalies here, but we'll see what the 12z suite brings. Well the 12z GFS at least still shows the trough just off the west coast and Torch city for the central and eastern us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Well the 12z GFS at least still shows the trough just off the west coast and Torch city for the central and eastern us Ends on a cold note, but I could buy something like what it shows. Not verbatim, but sort of a swing in temps. Just speculation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 The end of the run is cold! no torch at all Well the 12z GFS at least still shows the trough just off the west coast and Torch city for the central and eastern us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 What a fantastic day blue skies warm sun and fresh cool air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 i would also venture that some of that blocking differential is because the Euro-based products (as far as I am aware) still carry a modest bias to dig heights SW under mid latitude ridges to prodigiously. that then feeds back on having a bigger height gradients and tendencies toward Rex configuraitons. word on the tropics though! the whole thing gets moot in a hurry if a recurve resumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 i would also venture that some of that blocking differential is because the Euro-based products (as far as I am aware) still carry a modest bias to dig heights SW under mid latitude ridges to prodigiously. that then feeds back on having a bigger height gradients and tendencies toward Rex configuraitons. word on the tropics though! the whole thing gets moot in a hurry if a recurve resumes. Yea possible I suppose. We may see both model suites slowly relinquish their stubborness over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Well the 12z GFS at least still shows the trough just off the west coast and Torch city for the central and eastern us I don't think that's what this particular run is showing. The lower tropospheric features/evolution would only allow for a transient warmer than normal period 2 to perhaps 3 days. Then, big cold for this early in the season predominates the la-la range. I'd call that seasonally warmer than normal - code for not too extreme but yes above normal, and only 2 or 3 days But that's this run per se - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Top 3 Autumn day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Any thoughts on the hour 192 range? The ECM and CMC show a ridge covering the eastern US while the GFS drops another trough and focuses the ridge over the central US. The GFS sometimes has these outlier long range solutions but I've seen plenty of cases as well where large ridges like the one on the ECM in the longer range fail to materialize. I'm in the Hudson Valley but thought I'd join in at times on the pattern discussions. The Hudson Valley subforum is usually quiet anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 12z GEFS keeps the colder air along the US/Canadian border towards the end of the run into extreme NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Having an awesome day late fall fishing. Nice cool winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Having an awesome day late fall fishing. Nice cool winds. Did you catch any poisson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Photos from over the weekend at my house during sunrise. (No, that is NOT a 3 sided outhouse) Crappy resolution taken from Blackberry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Photos from over the weekend at my house during sunrise. (No, that is NOT a 3 sided outhouse) Crappy resolution taken from Blackberry. Nice, colors exploded yesterday, lots of yellows and reds. 169 looks awesome in Canterbury. New Euro is an all day soaker for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 while not as cool as the air mass over the weekend, we are advecting in 30-32F dp llv air, and with winds suggesting several decoupled hour prior to sun-up tomorrow, am wondering if a 33/34F type frost can occur overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Nice, colors exploded yesterday, lots of yellows and reds. 169 looks awesome in Canterbury. New Euro is an all day soaker for Sat. F.uck the Eurotrash. Europeans are so over dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 12z ECMWF has backed off big time with next week's "warm-up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 12z ECMWF has backed off big time with next week's "warm-up." yeah, nuances in the mid levels causing some confluence in S-SE Canada, and there's consequentially more surface polar type +pp forcing the boundary to wedge south under the northern rim of that transient ridge. I also think the later middle range has too much digging SW with the heights along that outside runner moving down the WC - if so, that probably relays a false feedback into said ridge downstream to begin with. We'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 12z ECMWF has backed off big time with next week's "warm-up." It looks closer to the GFS' solution with a trough in the NE and a ridge in the central US. Not too surprising given how far out this time frame is and that some of the big ridges in the longer range fail to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 welp - good ole NCEP's finally released their outlook for eternity ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 What a torch... people are going to be crying for their mamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 What a torch... people are going to be crying for their mamas. lol torch through Dec 2013. Hey, at least Florida has a few below normal months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Nice to see the Euro speeding up the fropa a bit on Sat. Maybe all of pumpkin prancing will be rain free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 LOL--an eternal blowtorch. God Forbid if that verifies-this place will be a mess beyond belief. even the NCEF folks must chuckle at those maps...when have they ever put out anything but warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 LOL--an eternal blowtorch. God Forbid if that verifies-this place will be a mess beyond belief. even the NCEF folks must chuckle at those maps...when have they ever put out anything but warmth? lol With the new climate regime why not go AN. You'll probably be right most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 lol With the new climate regime why not go AN. You'll probably be right most of the time. True..but in years like 02-03, 09-10, 10-11 they bust horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.