dilly84 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 All thermals look good now. Gfs is still a tad warm in Cmh and cuts the qpf in half compared to other models. Map coming Soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ok, so as of 18 hours ago, who had given up on this storm. I know I had lol. I did based on the models going nw. They're coming back se now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 cmh needs about a 25 mile shift se. it all depends on whether this is a true trend or it was a hiccup and they correct back nw a bit. I'm hoping its a trend based on the models picking up the progressive nature of the pattern as well as a stronger block. then again, we might get too much of a good thing and tomorrow it's a southern OH, KY blitz on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is great to see a storm move in our favor...i would take 2-4..4-6...5-10..just glad models moving in the right direction for once!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 cmh needs about a 25 mile shift se. it all depends on whether this is a true trend or it was a hiccup and they correct back nw a bit. I'm hoping its a trend based on the models picking up the progressive nature of the pattern as well as a stronger block. then again, we might get too much of a good thing and tomorrow it's a southern OH, KY blitz on the models I wouldn't be surprised to see the storm shift SE even further. No major shifts but I think from CMH to CLE is a good spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 cmh needs about a 25 mile shift se. it all depends on whether this is a true trend or it was a hiccup and they correct back nw a bit. I'm hoping its a trend based on the models picking up the progressive nature of the pattern as well as a stronger block. then again, we might get too much of a good thing and tomorrow it's a southern OH, KY blitz on the models Kind have to wonder how much of that shift had to do with it being fully sampled now. That makes it sound more legit. I'm waiting for the KING to speak at 1pm and see if it concurs. I would almost willing to say the 12z GFS thermals could be cooler than the 0z Euro. Hard to say, maybe not. I was running with ILN on a slightly modified forecast from the Euro but may have to go GFS/Euro straight up. I'm very surprised ILN didn't mention much of an ice threat in their forecast. Like for CMH it just says rain and snow. Yet the 0z GFS has 0.20" of liquid falling below freezing? Latest GFS also shows at least 0.20" falling before getting to 32. Granted it would be before sunrise so I guess not a major deal but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 idk how good the 4KM NAM is to use with BUKFIT but I just discovered penn state has it available...Holds CMH below frz the entire time with 0.71" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 No ice please....still remember 2004 quite well.. An inch of ice...snow please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DT's 1st guess is pretty generous for most of the state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Will take that map and run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Will take that map and run!! DT is always a little too generous... but good nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z GEM looks like a beauty. 850 0C line never gets north of downtown Cincy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.9 -0.1 1012 82 100 0.21 552 542 WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.8 1005 89 100 0.56 545 540 THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -3.2 1005 89 92 0.14 542 538 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.0 -6.9 1009 91 79 0.01 544 537 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.5 1016 88 69 0.01 548 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.9 -0.1 1012 82 100 0.21 552 542 WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.8 1005 89 100 0.56 545 540 THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -3.2 1005 89 92 0.14 542 538 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.0 -6.9 1009 91 79 0.01 544 537 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.5 1016 88 69 0.01 548 536 About .9, all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 About .9, all snow? A bit more, but yeah, it would appear to be all snow. Straight 10-1 would be approaching 10", 12"+ with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 saw this off DT's site... euro looks SAFELY snow here... that line is much further south than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 I love the fact that a storm goes in our favor for once..instead of trending NW...got to love the snow totals!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I wonder how much longer Wilmington will keep us in rain for Weds considering the "king" is now on board?? BTW, Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow..Ky going with a blizzard watch or warning..saying the low goes from middle TN to eastern KY..i would have to say a perfect track for us here in ohio..when will they hoist some watches and warnings..NWS still saying rain and 37 wed..REALLY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The Euro forecast soundings still show a warm layer just above freezing at 12z Wed so I expect at least some sleet to mix in. Freezing rain possible too more south/east of Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z nam only out to 30+ but comparing to 12z at 500mb...should be ticking east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Alright I'm 4-6 snow and sleet so far for Columbus...Here are my thoughts and latest map; http://www.examiner.com/article/updated-forecast-significant-ice-and-snow-on-the-way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Alright I'm 4-6 snow and sleet so far for Columbus...Here are my thoughts and latest map; http://www.examiner....snow-on-the-way looks reasonable. wonder if those totals north of columbus aren't high enough though. NAM looks SICK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ILN hasn't updated...I would imagine their northern tier counties further east go under a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 looks reasonable. wonder if those totals north of columbus aren't high enough though. NAM looks SICK Yeah went closer to the GFS which shows some lower totals I think because the primary is dying. The NAM does look amazing though haha. If I see a higher QPF trend in the GFS/Euro I will be upping totals for sure. Just gotta keep in mind NAM at this range is often too high on QPF and this is an 18z off hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Got the winter storm watch! ILN also going 4-6 snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec.......I would say that the GFS is pretty juicy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm shocked no one is jumping for joy at the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm shocked no one is jumping for joy at the 0z NAM It is definitely crazy. GFS looks identical with way less qpf. I went with 8-12 through central Ohio. Im more interested in the fact that models continue showing high winds. Dare I say the "b" word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I got home from a family function a little bit ago and I'm quite pleased to see winter storm watches are now up. A couple of slush inches still on the ground too. December is quickly trying to make up some ground here in central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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