TWC going to name winter storms this winter

[mappy]

quiet

[stormitecture]

this is kind of funny coming from the guy who co-authored a book titled:

Snowmageddon: Washington's Record-breaking winter of 2009-10

Zing!

[Srain]

ALEET!!1!! ALEET!!1!!....

[Ed Lizard]

I must have missed the article/link that stated TWC will be naming systems three days before its forecasted to impact an area, as well as where they said they will be issuing separate statements/watches/warnings from NWS where they would include said named winter storm.

Can you share that with me? Thanks.

See OP. TWC may name systems up to 72 hours in advance. And I never said they'd issue their own watches and warnings. But they probably will use the name of their storm in their local forecasts, and saying Winter Storm Nemo is expected to produce 8 inches of snow within 48 hours blurs the line between official watches and warnings and a TWC produced forecast.

I know you love being snarky and sarcastic, but if I didn't say something, please don't claim I said something.

Speaking of watches and warnings, BTW, since TWC did say they might go off of forecasted systems, what if their in-house forecasts differ from HPC guidance and local office forecasts. We see model wars all the time. Again, issuing a forecast that runs on the locals on the 8 for Winter Storm Q when NWS thinks it is going out to sea, that will be interesting.

If NWS forecast offices and HPC guidance is forecasting a storm TWC forecasters aren't enthusiastic about, will the public, even with NWS official warnings as part of the TWC local forecast, be as enthused if the system isn't named.

Unless, of course, TWC starts slavishly following HPC guidance. Which is still tricky, it appears, from distant memory of long ago tropical systems here, NHC/TPC and the local forecast offices coordinate, and I'm unaware if HPC and local offices coordinate as closely. I don't ever recall seeing "that the forecast is subject to change pending the coordination call with HPC" in an HGX AFD.

[mappy]

See OP. TWC may name systems up to 72 hours in advance. And I never said they'd issue their own watches and warnings. But they probably will use the name of their storm in their local forecasts, and saying Winter Storm Nemo is expected to produce 8 inches of snow within 48 hours blurs the line between official watches and warnings and a TWC produced forecast.

I know you love being snarky and sarcastic, but if I didn't say something, please don't claim I said something.

Speaking of watches and warnings, BTW, since TWC did say they might go off of forecasted systems, what if their in-house forecasts differ from HPC guidance and local office forecasts. We see model wars all the time. Again, issuing a forecast that runs on the locals on the 8 for Winter Storm Q when NWS thinks it is going out to sea, that will be interesting.

If NWS forecast offices and HPC guidance is forecasting a storm TWC forecasters aren't enthusiastic about, will the public, even with NWS official warnings as part of the TWC local forecast, be as enthused if the system isn't named.

Unless, of course, TWC starts slavishly following HPC guidance. Which is still tricky, it appears, from distant memory of long ago tropical systems here, NHC/TPC and the local forecast offices coordinate, and I'm unaware if HPC and local offices coordinate as closely. I don't ever recall seeing "that the forecast is subject to change pending the coordination call with HPC" in an HGX AFD.

I was actually being serious, Ed. If I missed where TWC said they would be naming systems in advance, please link me up as I missed it.

And why shouldn't they include the name when they are on-air talking about the impacts of the storm? They named it.

They won't however include the name in OFFICAL NWS PRODUCTS.

So, save your "I know your snarky but.." crap, because I was being serious. Thanks.

[Ed Lizard]

The Weather Channel says naming will occur no more than three days before a winter storm's expected impact, so forecasters are confident it could have a significant effect on large populations.

[famartin]

Their arguments are maddeningly poor so far.

Do you remember the North American blizzard of February 4, 2010? No? Well, do you remember Snowmageddon, the massive February 2010 Nor'easter that dumped up to 38" of snow in the mid-Atlantic, and killed 41 people? The two storms are the same, but having a simple name for the snowstorm like "Snowmageddon" helps us identify and remember the impacts of the storm.

http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2247

I am willing to bet that as many or more people refer to the storm as the Feb 2010 blizzard (1 or 2) then Snowmageddon. Not to mention the storm didn't happen on the 4th.

I'm not willing to make that bet. I've heard references to that name years later.

[mappy]

The Weather Channel says naming will occur no more than three days before a winter storm's expected impact, so forecasters are confident it could have a significant effect on large populations.

See...that wasn't so hard. Thanks

[Ed Lizard]

The 3 day thing, I remember the Boxing Day happy storm, as I was lurking frequently in the NYC subforum, and remember the joy of the more frum members of the forum when they logged on Saturday evening to discover blizzard warnings. Busts happen, which means they will almost certainly name some busts, and fail to name busted not much/no snow forecasts that turn out to be happy storms.

[Ellinwood]

I'm pretty sure any and all post-event names, while being used as a basis for argument, have less to do with naming a winter storm while still in the forecast/nowcast stages than people think. I messaged Eric Fisher and Tom Niziol RE: Naming storms before they form... Eric responded saying that he thinks the 72-hour rule could apply to storms before they even form, if confidence is high enough that said system will form and have a name-worthy impact. I have yet to hear back from Tom.

Bottomline, they are a private company. If they want to name a system, they can name a system. If people want to follow, they'll follow. There is one aspect that not sure 146 replies has mentioned: it is an SEO win. That alone is why I favor it.

SEO will definitely be a win... if everyone complies. Otherwise, the bolded is a very narrow way of viewing the potential societal impacts.

[Ed Lizard]

See...that wasn't so hard. Thanks

That was from the OP.

Rumor has it congratulations are in order, although I'm banned from knowing that officially.

But congratulations. And if nothing life changing is happening, congratulations for driving safely today.

[Ian]

I'm not willing to make that bet. I've heard references to that name years later.

Well it's been used multiple times--apparently first in Canada prior to 2010. It's a pop-culture thing. Almost everyone I talk to about it here says "remember the big snowstorm in Feb 2010" or something.

[mappy]

That was from the OP.

Rumor has it congratulations are in order, although I'm banned from knowing that officially.

But congratulations. And if nothing life changing is happening, congratulations for driving safely today.

I didn't actually click the link, hence the "if I missed it" remark

And thank you - here's hoping it doesn't happen during Winter Storm Athena

[andyhb]

This is assuming of course that there are any winter storms to name (*cough* last winter *cough*)...

[stormitecture]

This is assuming of course that there are any winter storms to name (*cough* last winter *cough*)...

TWC doesn't just name for our area. They cover the entire US

[BucksCO_PA]

I for one am happy to see that TWC has come a long way from the days of broadcasting Animal Storm Stories during the height of the JAN 2005 blizzard

[Ed Lizard]

TWC doesn't just name for our area. They cover the entire US

I thinks it is already clear that population density/impacts will be a partial determinant on what gets a TWC name, which implies another low snow Winter in the I-95 Corridor will diminish greatly the number of storms they name.

And they admitted the nets are lower for places like Atlanta. I just don't see any storm, even a 5 foot plus on the peaks monster, getting named in the Sierra Nevada, for instance. Unless they expect it to affect population centers further East.

[hurricaneschwartz]

As one of those evil media people (AND an employee of the same company that owns TWC), I am fascinated by the reaction. There are significant concerns from my point of view.

The biggest problem is if another private company decides to follow the lead and comes up with their own storm names. That will create chaos, and totally defeat the purpose of naming them in the first place. "Remember that storm in 2014-it was "Caesar" I think. No, it was Debby." Who says both companies will name the "C" storm at the same time? It might be the "D" storm from Company X.

What if the storm is named 2 days in advance? Let's say it's a Miller B that isn't even on the map. TWC is predicting 6-12" for the Phila. area, but my forecast is much lower. Then the storm slams NYC and New England, developing later than expected. Yes, the storm "verifies" for TWC, but it's a bust for the Phila. area. People here had been talking about "Caesar" for 2 days, and then we get a mere couple of inches. Who gets blamed? EVERYONE-even the ones who got it right.

In theory, it's a harmless, possibly fun way to report the weather. But......

Glenn

[The_Global_Warmer]

I think the decision to choose this specific.... style of name... is distasteful in many ways. These storms they are talking about may very well injure people and cause people to lose their lives.

One would think that NBC will use the names as well, so basically all "national outlets" will adopt the practice. Or maybe they won't...

I really do not appreciate the idea of children losing a parent, a parent losing a child, a friend losing a friend, people losing their home... to something called "Caesar", "Magnus", "Triton" and I don't think I'm alone in this.

There is still a lot of time for them to change it.

Tropical names do not trivialize that the storm may have emotional impact.

If I died somehow in one of these storms.

My friends and Family would find levity,humor, and solace overtime in the fact that Locutus of Borg did me in.

Personally if I have to choose the name of the blizzard that kills me, I prefer Vegeta.

[CT Rain]

As one of those evil media people (AND an employee of the same company that owns TWC), I am fascinated by the reaction. There are significant concerns from my point of view.

The biggest problem is if another private company decides to follow the lead and comes up with their own storm names. That will create chaos, and totally defeat the purpose of naming them in the first place. "Remember that storm in 2014-it was "Caesar" I think. No, it was Debby." Who says both companies will name the "C" storm at the same time? It might be the "D" storm from Company X.

What if the storm is named 2 days in advance? Let's say it's a Miller B that isn't even on the map. TWC is predicting 6-12" for the Phila. area, but my forecast is much lower. Then the storm slams NYC and New England, developing later than expected. Yes, the storm "verifies" for TWC, but it's a bust for the Phila. area. People here had been talking about "Caesar" for 2 days, and then we get a mere couple of inches. Who gets blamed? EVERYONE-even the ones who got it right.

In theory, it's a harmless, possibly fun way to report the weather. But......

Glenn

As another evil media person who works for the same company I agree with this.

I think it could be fun... I don't see a lot of downside... but I'm also not sure I get the argument that this will "improve communication" like TWC indicates it will. At the end of the day random wx viewer A wants to know when the snow will start, how much will fall, and what impact will it have. Name or no name you still have to answer those questions.

I don't mind with a storm getting a "name" and going on to hit other cities harder... as long as I'm able to effectively frame the forecast that "Cesar will just brush by CT but slam Boston and NNE" ... similar to a hurricane sliding east of ACK.

It will be interesting to see if the other NBC networks (MSNBC/NBC News/10 O&O stations) follow suit. If that happens then these names will begin catching on quickly.

I hope the names are reserved for truly significant/historic storms... otherwise the whole idea gets diluted.

[famartin]

My friends and Family would find levity,humor, and solace overtime in the fact that Locutus of Borg did me in.

I can't wait for that one!!!!

[hm8]

Chirst. This thread.

To everyone whining...here's a question: What could the negative effects of this possibly be?

[Avdave]

Chirst. This thread.

To everyone whining...here's a question: What could the negative effects of this possibly be?

Negative affects, you need to go back and re read this thread, there are plenty

[isohume]

Chirst. This thread.

To everyone whining...here's a question: What could the negative effects of this possibly be?

Negative effects, you need to go back and re read this thread, there are plenty

[CT Rain]

I suspect that due to the fact other organizations, and the government, are highly unlikely to follow TWC's lead on this may actually hurt them in the end. People will wonder "why is TWC naming silly winter storms and no one else is?"

I'm not sure the average weather consumer makes those kinds of distinctions. If they flip on TWC and hear it and they happen to catch "Today" while on the treadmill and hear it it may catch on.

I think, in general, weather hobbyists (and some mets) take things like this a bit too seriously. TWC has a tremendous brand... a really a monopoly on national weather competition... why not do something a little fun? They want to promote storms and give them names let them do it. I really don't think it will hurt anyone.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Negative affects, you need to go back and re read this thread, there are plenty

Not really the general public doesn't care.

When they b**ch about weather busts they really don't care.

When we worry they tune us out because of busts, they tune us out because they don't care, they hype and drama pre-storm gives them continuity social collectiveness, conversation fillers, ice breakers to hit on chicks, topics for old folks to speak about, reasons to stay home and play on the internet, reasons to splurge on food. Reasons to feel important, when it's over unless folks are personally devastated they don't care anymore regardless of outcome.

Busted named storms won't cause them to tune forecasts out, the fact that they do not care will cause them to tune it out.

Fact is, chances of dying in a blizzard are like 10000x less than dying from a drunk driver and most people don't even care about how serious of an issue that is, people drink,murder, smoke, sex, eat there way to death by the millions almost annually and they for the most part do not care.

Conclusion: Most in this thread like I do in the Climate Forum take it to serious because ego = self importance and self riteousness when in reality outside of our little community(and other weather groups and online forums) of weather obsessed freaks no one else cares.

Edit: care if Khan was worth being named Khan, not if the forecast is sunny and dry and their golf game is deluged. I don't want pro forecasters to think I am saying they do hard for nothing.

[hm8]

Negative affects, you need to go back and re read this thread, there are plenty

Nope, effect.

Negative effects, you need to go back and re read this thread, there are plenty

Haven't seen any legitimate ones. Private sectors each coming up with their own names an causing "chaos"? Not really. They may not have legitimate set of criteria to name a storm? ...Regardless, the forecasts for amount of snow, etc will remain the same whether it has a name or not. It's not as if TWC is assigning a strength category to storms.

[isohume]

Nope, effect.

Haven't seen any legitimate ones. Private sectors each coming up with their own names an causing "chaos"? Not really. They may not have legitimate set of criteria to name a storm? ...Regardless, the forecasts for amount of snow, etc will remain the same whether it has a name or not.

Cool, you don't get it. I am not going to rehash all the points made earlier.

[Avdave]

Nope, effect.

Haven't seen any legitimate ones. Private sectors each coming up with their own names an causing "chaos"? Not really. They may not have legitimate set of criteria to name a storm? ...Regardless, the forecasts for amount of snow, etc will remain the same whether it has a name or not. It's not as if TWC is assigning a strength category to storms.

Tell me the need why they need to do this? Have we been missing out on this for the last few decades? if it isnt broke, why try and fix it?

It is just a ridiculous idea and no need for it. Even without knowing criteria they are going to use, it is dumb to do this.

[GaWx]

I can see it now. Tornado outbreaks named Auntie Em, Dorothy and Toto. Flooding events named Noah. Heat waves named Martha Reeves, Linda Ronstadt, Marilyn Monroe, and Irving Berlin. Cold waves named Mr. Freeze and Knut.

I hope this naming of winter storms fails so miserably that they terminate doing it pretty quickly.