bluewave Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I wanted to start a new thread on the anniversary of the Great 1938 Hurricane. There was a a recent presentation done on the hurricane earlier this year in New Orleans. I don't think that the whole presentation is available free on the internet yet, but I provided the abstract. There are also a few linked papers below that provide a great amount of detail on the hurricane. The reanalysis maps are available at this link: http://www.esrl.noaa...hem_images.html https://ams.confex.c...aper201950.html 25 January 2012 The Rarity of the 1938 New England Hurricane As a Case of Extratropical Transition Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center ) Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL The 1938 hurricane is well known to not only locals of New England, but also to the (re)insurance industry. Very often, many ask "what would happen if the storm were to occur again?", in light of not only the dramatic coastal and financial growth in the region, but also the dramatic improvement in technology. Further, we still do not know exactly what the structure was of the storm as it made landfall: pure tropical cyclone, transitioning tropical cyclone, post-tropical cyclone, or the most deadly (but rare) warm-seclusion cyclone? The presentation begins by analyzing trajectories from 1957-2002 using ERA40 reanalysis to quantify the rarity of a parcel of air originating along the hurricane's track eventually reaching southern New England. This analyzes in a generic way the frequency with which the overall large-scale pattern supports a flow into New England from the source region. The results show that at most 1-2 days a year is such a path permitted. Combination with the rarity of having a tropical cyclone in that location (at the same time), the rarity of the New England landfall and track from the SSE is illustrated. New global reanalysis grids from NOAA/CIRES (20th Century Reanalysis Project) uses surface-only data to produce global 3D atmospheric grids back to the 19th century. This permits for the first time numerical simulations of the 1938 hurricane. Further, the reanalysis project produces 56 ensemble members that permits quantification of the uncertainty of the numerical simulations, in terms of track, intensity, and structure, before and after landfall. The presentation concludes with an examination of the variability of this 56 member of track, intensity, and structure ensemble. The structural analysis in particular is intriguing, since it argues for a predominance of the (most dangerous) warm-seclusion lifecycle into and beyond New England, which is more typically seen over the maritime far north Atlantic. However, the structural uncertainty overall of the cyclone is far greater than that seen for ensemble simulations of other New England hurricanes (e.g., Donna, Gloria, Bob, Floyd). Landfall timing is approximately nine hours late (the actual storm landfalls 9 hours earlier than the model forecast). This timing bias is not only consistent with operational forecasts of the prior mentioned storms, but also with a nightmare scenario where emergency preparedness and evacuations are not completed before the storm makes landfall at an intensity and speed likely in doubt based upon long-term climatology. http://www.aoml.noaa...sea/12Tides.pdf http://docs.lib.noaa...067-08-0237.pdf http://docs.lib.noaa...084-07-0261.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Thanks Bluewave! My favorite weather event in history. Any idea what the damage was like in LB? I assume not that bad as the classic original Reynolds houses built decades earlier remain undamaged. I would love to know the true storm surge values in Wantagh and LB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Thanks Bluewave! My favorite weather event in history. Any idea what the damage was like in LB? I assume not that bad as the classic original Reynolds houses built decades earlier remain undamaged. I would love to know the true storm surge values in Wantagh and LB. I found an old account of the 1938 Hurricane in Long Beach a while back. The surge swept over the West End causing flooding from the ocean to the bay. Jack Dawson's Restaurant burned down during the hurricane which was located at Wyoming and the beach. I found a photo from that spot right after the hurricane. The ocean also was high enough to push water and debris from the beach down National Blvd to around Park Ave. Wyoming and the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Wow...Dr. Hart's hypothesis is very intriguing, concerning and frightening all at once. And guess what? He's presenting this topic next month at Western Connecticut State University's Fourth Tri-State Weather Conference: https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Awesome setup. +NAO, Cutoff trough going negative, and a strong ridge ontop of it. Rare, but im sure this will happen again as history repeats itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Here's the 1938 20th century reanlysis map I put together. Does not show the core to well but you can see the H5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 The implications of the above are staggering...a hurricane making landfall in NY/SNE much more quickly than anticipated, and maybe even at a category (or more?) higher intensity than expected. We saw the latter happen with Hurricane Juan (2003) in Nova Scotia: Cat 1 intensity expected, Cat 2 intensity received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Wow...Dr. Hart's hypothesis is very intriguing, concerning and frightening all at once. And guess what? He's presenting this topic next month at Western Connecticut State University's Fourth Tri-State Weather Conference: https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference Are you going? I'm thinking about attending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 The implications of the above are staggering...a hurricane making landfall in NY/SNE much more quickly than anticipated, and maybe even at a category (or more?) higher intensity than expected. We saw the latter happen with Hurricane Juan (2003) in Nova Scotia: Cat 1 intensity expected, Cat 2 intensity received. It is a frightening proposition. I'm more concerned about the early landfall than forecast intensity. A cat 5 approaching HSE that's forecast to slam into the NYC metro within 24 hours will yield all the hype necessary to get the emergency plans in action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Are you going? I'm thinking about attending. Would love to see Dr. Hart's presentation a few others. Would have to cancel a prior commitment and go on my own dime, since the NWS budget for non mission critical travel is nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 It is a frightening proposition. I'm more concerned about the early landfall than forecast intensity. A cat 5 approaching HSE that's forecast to slam into the NYC metro within 24 hours will yield all the hype necessary to get the emergency plans in action. They've been evacuating Detroit since the 1950s and its still 60% full. On a serious note NYC has not learned the lessons that NO has. Plenty of people have nowhere to go. A 15 ft storm surge would cripple the infrastructure for weeks. A Juan like storm at high tide might even be able to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Would love to see Dr. Hart's presentation a few others. Would have to cancel a prior commitment and go on my own dime, since the NWS budget for non mission critical travel is nil. You could take a detour and visit your favorite town of Sherman... that would make the cost all worthwhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 You could take a detour and visit your favorite town of Sherman... that would make the cost all worthwhile! That blasted town in northernmost Fairfield County CT...severe thunderstorm verification killer! I seriously asked if WFO Albany could take it off our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 They've been evacuating Detroit since the 1950s and its still 60% full. On a serious note NYC has not learned the lessons that NO has. Plenty of people have nowhere to go. A 15 ft storm surge would cripple the infrastructure for weeks. A Juan like storm at high tide might even be able to do that. Yes and no. I've watched enough TV (better than Wiki) to know the lower Manhattan subways would be crippled for weeks, but much of NYC has plenty enough topo relief (hiils in Brooklyn & Queens > 200' ASL, one in Staten island is 400' ASL) it wouldn't be difficult escaping the surge. Now, feeding a million or four in a city w/o power might be tricky, and I have no idea if the water that flows downhill into NYC from the Catskills has sufficient 'head' (not a dirty term, actually) to flow from at least lower floor taps without lift pumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Yes and no. I've watched enough TV (better than Wiki) to know the lower Manhattan subways would be crippled for weeks, but much of NYC has plenty enough topo relief (hiils in Brooklyn & Queens > 200' ASL, one in Staten island is 400' ASL) it wouldn't be difficult escaping the surge. Now, feeding a million or four in a city w/o power might be tricky, and I have no idea if the water that flows downhill into NYC from the Catskills has sufficient 'head' (not a dirty term, actually) to flow from at least lower floor taps without lift pumps. Still not a pretty seen. ANd there is a lot we haven't thought of that can go wrong. Thats the problem with disater plans, you don't know the full scope of the disaster, until it actually happens. The disaster response tests don't simmulate the real world too well. Here's a good read. It lists some of the utilites in the zones http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/section_3f_coastal_storm_hazard_analysis.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 http://www.mefeedia.com/watch/45624044 I was able to find a video of Dr. Hart's great presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 http://www.mefeedia.com/watch/45624044 I was able to find a video of Dr. Hart's great presentation. You da man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 http://www.mefeedia.com/watch/45624044 I was able to find a video of Dr. Hart's great presentation. Fantastic. Fascinating. Concerning! I hope this kind of storm is not outside the realm of predictability, where we all figure on a weakening Cat 1 and instead get an accelerating Cat 2/3 due to asymmetric warm core (re)intensification. Recurvature back to the NNW before landfall may be an important factor, which makes sense--at the very least it implies greater phasing with the baroclinic upper low that captured it. Also...in such cases I hope that NHC abandons a pure science approach to storm typology, does not convert it to post-tropical, and keeps it a hurricane at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Saw this thread and figured I would bump it. Watched the presentation, very interesting wrt left turning cyclones and warm seclusion. Not that I am tryin to use this as an analog, but certainly mateiral in here relevant to the current forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Fantastic. Fascinating. Concerning! I hope this kind of storm is not outside the realm of predictability, where we all figure on a weakening Cat 1 and instead get an accelerating Cat 2/3 due to asymmetric warm core (re)intensification. Recurvature back to the NNW before landfall may be an important factor, which makes sense--at the very least it implies greater phasing with the baroclinic upper low that captured it. Also...in such cases I hope that NHC abandons a pure science approach to storm typology, does not convert it to post-tropical, and keeps it a hurricane at landfall. I never EVER thought this could actually have potential to happen only a month later. I'm keeping my mouth shut from now on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I never EVER thought this could actually have potential to happen only a month later. I'm keeping my mouth shut from now on! WOW amazing! I never thought I would see it in my lifetime let alone a month later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Thanks for bumping this. It's fascinating to watch the models try and deal with it. If anything, this situation cautions against using traditional thumb rules and past analogs. We really don't have a past analog to compare it to (since 1938 was so data sparse). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 For those who haven't seen it already, this full length documentary concerning the 1938 hurricane is well worth the watch. Its a full length video (about an hour and a half), from the history channel. Commentary from survivors as well as aftermath video/pictures. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4Lf5uIoQKU&feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Good post Bluewave! Those before and after aerial images of the barrier islands are incredible! Looks like a lot of extra sand got deposited in those splay formations on the lagoon side. I know just south of Ocean City the 1933 hurricane took out an entire stretch of a barrier island (what was there before Assateague Island). Today Assateague Island replaced the other barrier island to the south of Ocean City, but it has formed closer to the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 1938 redux? The graph posted earlier depicting the storm track looks somewhat similar to what were seeing today. The difference being that Sandy is moving slower and recurves to the NW upon landfall, or makes a loop in the Long Island Sound according to the GFS, either way its modeled to be potentially worse IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 1938 redux? The graph posted earlier depicting the storm track looks somewhat similar to what were seeing today. The difference being that Sandy is moving slower and recurves to the NW upon landfall, or makes a loop in the Long Island Sound according to the GFS, either way its modeled to be potentially worse IMO There is no way this will be as bad as 38 was just to the east of its center. This could be bigger cost wise because it will be moderately bad over a larger area but what happened in 38 just east of the center was an epic disaster on the coast with a 15 foot storm surge on eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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