TS Isaac Banter Thread

[Ed Lizard]

OK, since I am just a hobbyist, and not a degreed met, I will post my MS Paint here. Now, I tried to suggest a hint of a slightly South of due West motion in my initial red line forecast, but MS Paint is hard.

There is no high risk yet, just slight risk and moderate risk. Percentages, I don't know, maybe 90% probability inside yellow lines, and maybe 50% probability inside yellow orange lines. Numbers are sort of pulled out of my ear.

Reasoning. Euro and GFS, while not perfect, both show Florida. And with a system coming North out of the Caribbean, and Florida generally having N-S coastlnes, small differences are huge on likely landfall. Euro seems to have ensemble members West of the op, GFS, multiple runs, ensemble members East of the Op. So they cancel out, and I'm thinking Florida. But will consider SE Louisiana to Carolinas, and Carolinas could have second NYC/SNE subforum landfall. (A little ensemble GFS support, and I like those subforums. SE Louisiana is still Louisiana, and would be in Steve's Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana thread in the Central subforum). )As they say at SevereStorm3K, this is an unofficial forecast, by an amateur member who isn't in Jorge/Don/Superstorm.GaWx territory of amateur goodness.

OT thought- speaking of knowledgeable amateurs, and red taggers having a spectrum from very good to not so very good, today would be a good day for the red tag forecast contest, between bendy tree mod and the red tagger who believes he can outforecast him, any day, any system.

[wi_fl_wx]

The comparison to Irene is fair if you consider what the NHC forecast track was for Irene as the storm developed and approached the islands. In fact, the forecast for Irene was almost identical to Ed's forecast for TD9/future Isaac. Obviously in that case the models trended back NE but there's no guarantee that will happen again.

[Isopycnic]

OK, since I am just a hobbyist, and not a degreed met, I will post my MS Paint here. Now, I tried to suggest a hint of a slightly South of due West motion in my initial red line forecast, but MS Paint is hard.

There is no high risk yet, just slight risk and moderate risk. Percentages, I don't know, maybe 90% probability inside yellow lines, and maybe 50% probability inside yellow orange lines. Numbers are sort of pulled out of my ear.

Reasoning. Euro and GFS, while not perfect, both show Florida. And with a system coming North out of the Caribbean, and Florida generally having N-S coastlnes, small differences are huge on likely landfall. Euro seems to have ensemble members West of the op, GFS, multiple runs, ensemble members East of the Op. So they cancel out, and I'm thinking Florida. But will consider SE Louisiana to Carolinas, and Carolinas could have second NYC/SNE subforum landfall. (A little ensemble GFS support, and I like those subforums. SE Louisiana is still Louisiana, and would be in Steve's Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana thread in the Central subforum). )As they say at SevereStorm3K, this is an unofficial forecast, by an amateur member who isn't in Jorge/Don/Superstorm.GaWx territory of amateur goodness.

OT thought- speaking of knowledgeable amateurs, and red taggers having a spectrum from very good to not so very good, today would be a good day for the red tag forecast contest, between bendy tree mod and the red tagger who believes he can outforecast him, any day, any system.

I a'int ridin' that Craz'ed train! You missed a few of the islands.

[toad strangler]

The comparison to Irene is fair if you consider what the NHC forecast track was for Irene as the storm developed and approached the islands. In fact, the forecast for Irene was almost identical to Ed's forecast for TD9/future Isaac. Obviously in that case the models trended back NE but there's no guarantee that will happen again.

Here was Irene at VERY ROUGHLY the same juncture. Irene was a tad further south and nearly 7 further west. I am not up on the basin wide set up with Irene as compared to TD9 and just posting this because it is a little bit interesting.

[Bostonseminole]

OK, since I am just a hobbyist, and not a degreed met, I will post my MS Paint here. Now, I tried to suggest a hint of a slightly South of due West motion in my initial red line forecast, but MS Paint is hard.

There is no high risk yet, just slight risk and moderate risk. Percentages, I don't know, maybe 90% probability inside yellow lines, and maybe 50% probability inside yellow orange lines. Numbers are sort of pulled out of my ear.

Reasoning. Euro and GFS, while not perfect, both show Florida. And with a system coming North out of the Caribbean, and Florida generally having N-S coastlnes, small differences are huge on likely landfall. Euro seems to have ensemble members West of the op, GFS, multiple runs, ensemble members East of the Op. So they cancel out, and I'm thinking Florida. But will consider SE Louisiana to Carolinas, and Carolinas could have second NYC/SNE subforum landfall. (A little ensemble GFS support, and I like those subforums. SE Louisiana is still Louisiana, and would be in Steve's Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana thread in the Central subforum). )As they say at SevereStorm3K, this is an unofficial forecast, by an amateur member who isn't in Jorge/Don/Superstorm.GaWx territory of amateur goodness.

OT thought- speaking of knowledgeable amateurs, and red taggers having a spectrum from very good to not so very good, today would be a good day for the red tag forecast contest, between bendy tree mod and the red tagger who believes he can outforecast him, any day, any system.

looks reasonable at this point, anywhere from eastern gulf to SE US, my folks are in South Florida so I have a heavy stake where this storm goes.

[Damage In Tolland]

Do you really want to get five posted?

For what? Posting a weather related idea in a tropical thread? if they 5 post people for that, then something is wrong

[am19psu]

Please provide examples on how that was a wishcast.

Why was Bob's post allowed to remain? Is that storm related?

I see..Mods banter posts aren't touched, but credible posts from members are. understood

For what? Posting a weather related idea in a tropical thread? if they 5 post people for that, then something is wrong

:lol:

[mappy]

Adam is such a snobby moderator

[wxjim207]

I gotta ask everyone.... have you seen the increasing amount of hype surrounding this storm? As a person that uses twitter a lot to provide my forecast from the VCCJ to the NEK of Vermont, I have seen excessive amount of hype and false information. I have even seen multiple messages from many people warning Florida because they are going to be hit. The very sad part is most of the general public will believe this. I don't know I am just ranting about this because I am learning this is making my job hard as I am not far away from earning that Meteorology Degree. Right now part of the VCCJ I am a On Air Meteorologist and I get it a lot even in the NEK with folks saying they "heard" from someone online this is going to happen when I am forecasting (along with others in the region) something different. I ask where did you hear this? They usually just say oh some person I know or follow on twitter or facebook. A lot of false information & wishcasting going on. Sorry I just had to rant! I welcome your opinion on this matter and comments.

[Ed Lizard]

With 2 official track forecasts out, the second a little North of the first, I wonder if we can still extrapolate from a dOfficialForecast/dTime trend an Eastern Connecticut landfall.

I'm guessing not, but I can't help but root for SNE

[mappy]

I gotta ask everyone.... have you seen the increasing amount of hype surrounding this storm? As a person that uses twitter a lot to provide my forecast from the VCCJ to the NEK of Vermont, I have seen excessive amount of hype and false information. I have even seen multiple messages from many people warning Florida because they are going to be hit. The very sad part is most of the general public will believe this. I don't know I am just ranting about this because I am learning this is making my job hard as I am not far away from earning that Meteorology Degree. Right now part of the VCCJ I am a On Air Meteorologist and I get it a lot even in the NEK with folks saying they "heard" from someone online this is going to happen when I am forecasting (along with others in the region) something different. I ask where did you hear this? They usually just say oh some person I know or follow on twitter or facebook. A lot of false information & wishcasting going on. Sorry I just had to rant! I welcome your opinion on this matter and comments.

Bc most people are morons

[HoarfrostHubb]

I can't believe any reliable media person would say people in such and such an area should prepare

Unless they are in Hispanola or someplace like that

Every TC has become End of the World

[klw]

I gotta ask everyone.... have you seen the increasing amount of hype surrounding this storm? As a person that uses twitter a lot to provide my forecast from the VCCJ to the NEK of Vermont, I have seen excessive amount of hype and false information. I have even seen multiple messages from many people warning Florida because they are going to be hit. The very sad part is most of the general public will believe this. I don't know I am just ranting about this because I am learning this is making my job hard as I am not far away from earning that Meteorology Degree. Right now part of the VCCJ I am a On Air Meteorologist and I get it a lot even in the NEK with folks saying they "heard" from someone online this is going to happen when I am forecasting (along with others in the region) something different. I ask where did you hear this? They usually just say oh some person I know or follow on twitter or facebook. A lot of false information & wishcasting going on. Sorry I just had to rant! I welcome your opinion on this matter and comments.

This is similar to the phenomena related to snowfall forecasts where if there is a range given, much of the public will only hear the top number. Ex. forecast of "4 to 8 inches with spot amounts of 10 inches with higher amounts at the higher elevations of the Greens" is given out. Person A hears this as we are getting 8 to 10 inches or maybe more. "Hey did you hear we are getting like 10 inches or maybe more?" to person B. Person B hears "wow we are getting a foot." Next thing you know St.. Johnsbury is in line for 18 inches.

As to #9, for an Atlantic disturbance is this an unusually large system for this stage of development?

[Derecho!]

This is similar to the phenomena related to snowfall forecasts where if there is a range given, much of the public will only hear the top number. Ex. forecast of "4 to 8 inches with spot amounts of 10 inches with higher amounts at the higher elevations of the Greens" is given out. Person A hears this as we are getting 8 to 10 inches or maybe more. "Hey did you hear we are getting like 10 inches or maybe more?" to person B. Person B hears "wow we are getting a foot." Next thing you know St.. Johnsbury is in line for 18 inches.

The move to public 5 day forecasts by NHC was obviously a horse well beaten to death when it happened, but this is one of those storms where I'm sure in a couple of neurons in the brain whoever is doing advisories 2 days from now is REALLY going to be wishing they hadn't done that. What I love is where for a couple of advisories they desperately try to keep the day 5 dot offshore as long as they possibly can.

Improvements in track accuracy obviously justified the 5 day forecasts which I fully support, but particularly in this situation where intensity is going to be 80% controlled by land interaction, and even without land intensity being a crapshoot, I really wonder if when they went to 5 day forecasts if they shouldn't have not made specific intensity forecasts for hours 72+, and just went with TD/TS/Hurricane.

[bobbutts]

cmc

[MJO812]

I don't know why metfan thinks he's not going to be 5-posted treating this thread as his personal playground. Just because it's a banter thread doesn't mean it's a chat room.

Uh? I'm posting weather related stuff.

[MJO812]

JB has Isaac hitting South Carolina as a cat 3 lol

[am19psu]

JB has Isaac hitting South Carolina as a cat 3 lol

Glad he is putting out my forecast from last Thursday.

[Jimbo!]

worst thing that ever happened to this forum was irene...now every storm in the vicinity of where irene was will be an mid atlantic/ne weenie strike...sigh...watching with eyes peeled from sw fl...

[MJO812]

Glad he is putting out my forecast from last Thursday.

Great minds think alike

[H2O]

Great minds think alike

low blow

[Ian]

worst thing that ever happened to this forum was irene...now every storm in the vicinity of where irene was will be an mid atlantic/ne weenie strike...sigh...watching with eyes peeled from sw fl...

with weather being such big business on the internet especially i don't think we'll ever put the genie back in the bottle re: rampant speculation early in the game. there's too much to be gained by hedging in the interesting direction in most situations.

[ag3]

LOL. 12z Canadian is pretty much Irene part 2.

[bobbutts]

worst thing that ever happened to this forum was irene...now every storm in the vicinity of where irene was will be an mid atlantic/ne weenie strike...sigh...watching with eyes peeled from sw fl...

I'm still watching this storm if I'm anywhere between Cancun and Halifax right now.

[wolfman23601]

Irene was weak sauce. Lost power for 2 weeks for a nothing of a storm. Do not want a redux of that.

[Hugo]

Was there ever a time when CV storms weren't hyped as potential SNE threats?

[mappy]

Was there ever a time when CV storms weren't hyped as potential SNE threats?

Is anything not hyped as an SNE threat?

[Hugo]

Is anything not hyped as an SNE threat?

Nope. Every potentially interesting weather system is going to SNE. That's the way it was back on Storm97 and that's the way it will always be.

[Ian]

Nope. Every potentially interesting weather system is going to SNE. That's the way it was back on Storm97 and that's the way it will always be.

These types of discussion places have always focused on low probability events like they are possible with every storm. The difference is now that speculation is also part of the mainstream dialogue. I can't wait till NHC starts the 7 day.

[Stebo]

It might be a SNE threat, of course after landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast and then running Northeastward in land. The threat would be heavy rain and that is about it... None of these EC/SNE pipe dream landfalls that the CMC keep pumping out. The pattern is not favorable for anything like that.