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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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I'm also finally going to get this username changed...no more Hazy for me :lol:

Now that you'll be a resident of Happy Valley, I won't want to hear any complaining about the Allegheny Front eating 90% of our LES action, alright? ;)

At least we shouldn't have to endure another winter like the past one.

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Hopefully we get an average winter. I hope it's not another 04/05 or 06/07 redux.

I'm optimistic about this coming winter just from the simple fact that they don't get much worse than what got thrown at us last year. And if you thought it was bad here, the folks in upstate New York specifically the lake effect areas really got slaughtered on seasonal totals. We had been due to get a 94-95 or 01-02 type winter so hopefully it's out of our system. I do like the early returns on this coming winter with the CFS looking pretty decent and what looks to be possibly a weaker El Nino. I think we'll do okay as long as we don't see the lengthy stretches of highly +NAO/AO (as well as bad Pacific pattern) that plagued last year. And I doubt we see the perfect storm of bad teleconnections for practically the whole winter again this year.

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64.2 right now. Pretty cool for 9:30 on a mid-August night.

Yeah. 68.8° here at the moment. It was nice to be back in the full, vibrant greenery of Central PA after two days of driving across the Desert Midwest and a day in parched Norman, OK. Today will mark the 67th consecutive day without recording even 0.10" of precip there. Crazy.

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Agreed with PennMan -- the weather here in central PA is much more agreeable and the vegetation much greener than what the Midwest and Plains have been facing this summer. Temperatures in northern Illinois, where I was until a few days ago, were running on a record-warm pace for the spring-, summer-, and year-to-date, with 45 days AOA 90 and eight AOA 100 this year so far at my particular location, and precipitation was often scant from mid-May onward. Of course, it seems like it's been on the warmer side of normal here fairly often this year, as well.

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I'll pull a slight.

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The Hazardous Weather Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday the 14th. Areas affected will be southern NY, PA, NJ, MD, much of WV and Northern VA. A low pressure system will work its way up near Lake Erie by afternoon and spawn storms ahead of the trailing cold front. The most likely storm modes look to be multicell and supercells. Damaging wind threat looks to be the highest at this time but, some weak tornadoes can not be ruled out.

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Keep and eye ahead of the surface low, for enhanced shear, and the threat of supercells and a few tornadoes, where that set ups, the 12z NAM has the surface low in SE OH at 18z, and by 00z it's on the New York/Pennsylvania Border, i would say Western and Central PA could have the better severe potential

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Models have cape from 2-3K would say that is really marginal.

They did nudge up a bit with 12z, seeing a lot of 2-2.5K in the vicinity of north-central and northeast PA. Makes me feel a bit more confident, even though I think the biggest thing to be worried about is wind shear and other kinematics. Those do support isolated tornadoes tomorrow.

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