phil882 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I'll go ahead and start this thread since it seems likely this is getting upgraded momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Interestingly ImpactWeather had TD Five posted on their tropics page at 3:10pmCDT, but for some reason decided to take it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Are we expecting a 5 pm EDT upgrade? I love even the possibility of a Caribbean Cruiser. We haven't had a good one in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Omg, I just had a mild freakout at the initial forecast track/intensity! Omg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Omg, I just had a mild freakout at the initial forecast track/intensity! Omg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Omg, I just had a mild freakout at the initial forecast track/intensity! Omg! I'm going to throw some cold water on you: Keep in mind that this storm's name will be Ernesto... a very much cursed name in terms of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 18z plots for TD5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Judging from the means, a lot, maybe most, of the Euro ensembles kill it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 For the record: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012 DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Judging from the means, a lot, maybe most, of the Euro ensembles kill it... The means can be smoothed out so you have to be careful. The Spag plots look to keep it moving through the Carb. I usually look at ensembles more for the track, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The means can be smoothed out so you have to be careful. The Spag plots look to keep it moving through the Carb. I usually look at ensembles more for the track, anyways. Free Euro spaghetti available anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 For the record: That is quite an agressive forecast by the NHC. While I have been in support of the GFS's solution over the ECMWF (and thus far it has prevailed) I am still very concerned over the next 24-48 hours as the storm will continue to be under moderate westerly shear. If we get a surge of low level easterlies over the Lesser Antillies and West Caribbean, it could easily cause vortex decoupling. However, the CCKW might be able to negate this potential by increasing the divergent outflow as it passes by TD5, and maybe that is why the GFS is hanging on to the TC while in the Western Caribbean the last few model cycles. It is also worth noting that the 12z ECMWF has come much more in line with the slow and somewhat more southerly solution the first 24 hours or so of the forecast. However, in the medium range, it starts to diverge again from the GFS and take the system further north. Its short term self correction, however, might be pointing toward the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Euro spaghetti plots are available on NOAA's HFIP site out to 120 hours when there is at least a TD: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/. However, these plots usually come out several hours after the Euro ensemble finishes. Free Euro spaghetti available anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Free Euro spaghetti available anywhere? None that I am aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Models way underdid felix.. However that is an exception, I expect it will strugle for the next five days at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I'm going to throw some cold water on you: Keep in mind that this storm's name will be Ernesto... a very much cursed name in terms of development. Has anyone ever done a Lameness Index of the unretired storm names? Some sort of weighted scale based on the maximum S-S category or windspeed of each storm with the name? I know Ernesto is up there but there are a bunch of A & B names that have to be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Has anyone ever done a Lameness Index of the unretired storm names? Some sort of weighted scale based on the maximum S-S category or windspeed of each storm with the name? I know Ernesto is up there but there are a bunch of A & B names that have to be worse This year's name list is full of disappointment. Florence? Gordon? Helene? yawnnn I'm eager for 2014. Hurricane Fernand. Or 2015, Hurricane Gonzalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I'm still very uneasy about this one. It has to have an impressive DMAX to have a prayer to survive tomorrow. Any resemblance of a Chris (2006), Ernesto (2006), or Tomas...and I'm out. Very weary of pathetic systems. EDIT: Really liking the new inner-nest of the HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I'm still very uneasy about this one. It has to have an impressive DMAX to have a prayer to survive tomorrow. Any resemblance of a Chris (2006), Ernesto (2006), or Tomas...and I'm out. Very weary of pathetic systems. EDIT: Really liking the new inner-nest of the HWRF. Just my personal opinion, but I think what will likely become Ernesto will get sheared a lot more than currently forecasted. Its asymmetrical appearance isn't to my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Still seeing UK ensembles on that website above, can anyone verbally describe what Euro spaghetti looks like? The Chris mention, anyone remember that little low level swirl just going off by itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Still seeing UK ensembles on that website above, can anyone verbally describe what Euro spaghetti looks like? The Chris mention, anyone remember that little low level swirl just going off by itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I don't do the D-Min/D-Max thing, but D-Min to the nth power... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 TD5 is naked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Stewart comes through again with a nice 11 pm EDT Discussion. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Stewart comes through again with a nice 11 pm EDT Discussion. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. Yep, things look better once around Jamaica longitude...it should slow down a bit then, and under the influence of a decent anticyclone...and most probably steered by zonal ridging....could be one of those whose trajectory is very clear cut and with good model support...but even those can throw a screwball or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 TD #05L - won't be long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Classic behavior for a tropical depression approaching the islands, vertical wind shear in the easterly trade winds is killing it. Really curious that the NHC discussion doesn't mention vertical wind shear when it's probably the biggest issue right now. I smell a bust at least in the short term, but this could become something later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Probably wished they had waited for recon to get in there tomorrow, but it did look good this afternoon. I remain glass 15/64th that 05L may eventually be named a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I was visiting here and Wallops Island area in 2006 and Ernesto clobbered the beach and cut off that town(Chinkateage). Uncle says stormy in DC at same time, 35mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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