icebreaker5221 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 It was actually 2010. Last year, the op model actually regressed, but the experimental EnKF version did a good job. Now that they've implemented the EnKF-hybrid, I suspect it should remain good this year. Oh ok. I wasn't sure if it was 2010 or the beginning of 2011. I guess it depends upon which upgrade you're referring to. - The major resolution and physics upgrade was 07/27/10, and seemed to make a big difference in terms of track and genesis. - A slightly less major upgrade on 05/09/11 made some smaller physics / radiation changes as well as some small changes to the 3d-var DA scheme (e.g. use of radiances). I'm not sure that there was much improvement in the tropics (Adam says a degradation) - The EnKF / hybrid DA upgrade on 05/22/12, which appears to have been an improvement so far this tropical season. You can see a list of implementations here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I guess it depends upon which upgrade you're referring to. - The major resolution and physics upgrade was 07/27/10, and seemed to make a big difference in terms of track and genesis. - A slightly less major upgrade on 05/09/11 made some smaller physics / radiation changes as well as some small changes to the 3d-var DA scheme (e.g. use of radiances). I'm not sure that there was much improvement in the tropics (Adam says a degradation) - The EnKF / hybrid DA upgrade on 05/22/12, which appears to have been an improvement so far this tropical season. You can see a list of implementations here: http://www.emc.ncep....ov/GFS/impl.php It was the July 2010 one I believe. Just going off memory. Thank for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 i think in a few days the african dust cloud should disperse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 That wave that just came off of Africa looks very impressive on visible satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 it does look impressive and i think the dust cloud will not be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 That wave that just came off of Africa looks very impressive on visible satellite imagery. This one? @RyanMaue: Can watch African wave over Ethiopia in GFS 00z turn into monster hurricane 16-days later ... hypothetical of course. http://t.co/vCznJbqJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Newest GFS does a nice explosion of tropical development across the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 has this paper been linked here if so apologies. klotzbach EL Nino MJO and Cyclone Rapid Intensification http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/klotzbach2012.pdf what stage of MJO are we in ( i'm strapped for time at work) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 If 99L doesnt get it's act together soon, Euro hints at the possibility of the latest TW near Africa to rob Ernesto's name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 has this paper been linked here if so apologies. klotzbach EL Nino MJO and Cyclone Rapid Intensification http://hurricane.atm...otzbach2012.pdf what stage of MJO are we in ( i'm strapped for time at work) weak 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 If 99L doesnt get it's act together soon, Euro hints at the possibility of the latest TW near Africa to rob Ernesto's name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 http://www.americanw...008-mb-w-20mph/ I meant TD 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 I meant TD 5 It was clear what you meant-- I don't know where the confusion was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 It was clear what you meant-- I don't know where the confusion was. Just making sure he knew there was a system out there, Mr. Snotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Just making sure he knew there was a system out there, Mr. Snotty. I think that is your name. Of course Jorge knows there's a system out there, and it was just a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Just making sure he knew there was a system out there, Mr. Snotty. I'm probably one of the top posters in that thread...but it's ok, no harm done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 This new wave that just entered the Eastern Atlantic means business and the 12z Euro developed it immediately. If Ernesto hits central America and this one goes Fishing; the conus will once again be very lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 This new wave that just entered the Eastern Atlantic means business and the 12z Euro developed it immediately. If Ernesto hits central America and this one goes Fishing; the conus will once again be very lucky. Yeah...um it's a tad early for this kind of talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Yeah...um it's a tad early for this kind of talk. Wouldn't be surprised if it happened. This is the 12z euro with 'Florence' way out in fishland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if it happened. This is the 12z euro with 'Florence' way out in fishland. Yea this wave is a guaranteed fish... there is a huge upper level trough in the middle of the Atlantic that won't allow anything except a very low amplitude wave (such as what was Ernesto) to make it past 60W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if it happened. This is the 12z euro with 'Florence' way out in fishland. Yeah but I don't even know why you are talking about the US getting lucky considering either system has a lot of distance and a myriad of obstacles get through (Ernesto with shear, land masses, etc), the second wave is going to fish anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Yeah but I don't even know why you are talking about the US getting lucky considering either system has a lot of distance and a myriad of obstacles get through (Ernesto with shear, land masses, etc), the second wave is going to fish anyway... We are going to have some heavy landfalling canes this year, unlike the past few years. I stand by my prediction that Ernesto will become a major hurricane at some point. Lucky because the pattern is very under conductive for US landfalls anywhere. I do see changes in the long-range but if it's anything like the 1950's, stuff will be moving south to north and not east to west because of the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 We now have Invest 90L. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al902012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208030916 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012080306, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902012 AL, 90, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 124N, 239W, 25, 0, DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 looks like it has a shot at developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 90 L got a orange on the 8 am NHC update. Also has a lemon drop for the Tropical wave just east of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 90 L got a orange on the 8 am NHC update. Also has a lemon drop for the Tropical wave just east of Florida. Wow-- yeah. It's a fruit salad this morning. I wish all this crap could pool energies and make one, single, quality system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 the wave near florida seems mildly interesting this morning. i wonder if it can stall out and develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 the wave near florida seems mildly interesting this morning. i wonder if it can stall out and develop. Indeed. Steering currents would favor an increasing convective threat as well along the east coast the next several days. (if it were to develop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 it seems to be in a moist environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al912012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208031635 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012080312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012 AL, 91, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 226N, 771W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 233N, 778W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 240N, 785W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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