Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II

[Ground Scouring]

You forgot Hattie 1961, Joan 1988, and Iris 2001. The W Caribbean countries are just as prone to big October cyclones as the USA. And the October majors in FL and Cuba are just as much "exceptions" as the MX landfalls you cite.

I should also point out that the W-Caribbean October landfalls are stronger. No Cat 4 has hit the Gulf Coast or FL in Oct, whereas there have been multiple Cat-4 landfalls in the W Caribbean in Oct.

That is true, but statistics disagree with you re: the vulnerability W-Caribbean countries vs. that of the U.S. or other nations in the Caribbean.

I just checked all the late-season majors--meaning in October or later--that formed in or passed through the W Caribbean, and I found 36 results. Of these, only three major hits--Inez 1966, Roxanne 1995, and Wilma 2005--occurred in MX (8%), while the remaining 33 (88%) hit elsewhere. Of these 33, 20 (61%) hit either FL, Cuba, Haiti, or the NE Caribbean. The three examples that you cited, plus the 1906 Keys hurricane in Nicaragua, were among the relatively smaller number of major hits in the W-Caribbean / Central American countries--and they were definitely, statistically in the minority. It is to be noted that Cuba is tops for Category 4/5 landfalls; compare the hits vs. those of the W-Caribbean or Central-American nations:

CATEGORY 4/5 STRIKES BY REGION

MX / Belize - 3 (Hattie 1961, Iris 2001, Wilma 2005)

Central America - 1 (Joan 1988)

Cuba, FL, or the Antilles - 6 (1882 Cuba, 1924 Cuba, 1926 Cuba, 1932 Cuba, Fox 1952, Michelle 2001)*

*This total may go up if the reanalysis by Landsea and Hagen, which upgrades the October 1944 TC in Cuba and the September 1948 TC in SW FL to Category-4 status each, is approved by the best-track committee.

So I think the data clearly indicate that major hits in October-November, even Category 4/5 landfalls, are favored outside of the W Caribbean and/or Central America, at least historically.

By the way, according to the Climate Prediction Center ONI data, none of the events after 1950 occurred when El Niño was developing...the vast majority occurred in neutral ENSO years, although Lenny 1999 occurred during La Niña.

[am19psu]

Agree with snowflake re: us landfall prospects

[turtlehurricane]

With that huge Bermuda ridge in place--which would shunt everything into MX, rather than FL or the N Gulf, which is more desirable for a big hit in October due to the W-Caribbean formations--and with shear increasing, such a prospect is more laughable and far-fetched than even the most outlandish Canadian model run. I am sorry, but the bolded is just a pipe dream given the upcoming pattern.

Yes, there have been some notable MX majors or substantial hurricanes on the Atlantic side on October--Roxanne 1995 and Wilma 2005, to name a few--but from 1851 to the present, most W-Caribbean majors targeted Cuba, the N Gulf, or FL. And furthermore, the vast majority of those hits occurred when El Niño was not an impediment to contend with. So basically, for practical purposes, the season is over just as others have proclaimed.

Such incredible arrogance declaring the season over on 9/25 since we finally had a few quiet weeks, which is fairly normal. Your tone is horrible too, whenever you reply to me it's just insults. You used to be a good poster but now you're just bitter and trying to start fights... this is not the right place to take out your emotions if you're having problems in life. I have no interest in getting into mean disputes in the tropical threads, I come here to talk the tropics in a laid back environment with my tropical buds.

[andyhb]

I'm virtually willing to give up on the Atlantic Basin at this point and focus on the svr prospects (which may be enhanced by the Bermuda/ST Ridge being in a more favorable position for moisture advection) and the EPAC side WRT tropical action.

[andyhb]

Such incredible arrogance declaring the season over on 9/25 since we finally had a few quiet weeks, which is fairly normal. Your tone is horrible too, whenever you reply to me it's just insults. You used to be a good poster but now you're just bitter and trying to start fights... this is not the right place to take out your emotions if you're having problems in life. I have no interest in getting into mean disputes in the tropical threads, I come here to talk the tropics in a laid back environment with my tropical buds.

Umm...

[Ground Scouring]

Such incredible arrogance declaring the season over on 9/25 since we finally had a few quiet weeks, which is fairly normal.

Two named storms forming in the entire month of September thus far is far from normal; that number is a record low for September since 1900 (or is likely to be since satellite data were not available in the early years) and is even below what one usually sees during Niño years. Such low activity during prime time has also never occurred before in a season with 12+ storms at any point. Also, I do not think there is any secret that conditions in the basin this year have been far less favorable than what is expected for years with 12+ named systems; just look at the manner in which the Plains ridge has resulted in a similar pattern for three straight seasons (highly unusual in a complex fluid atmosphere in which no two years are identical), with the East-Coast trough sweeping systems out to sea and a stable deep tropics hindering development.

Your tone is horrible too, whenever you reply to me it's just insults. You used to be a good poster but now you're just bitter and trying to start fights... this is not the right place to take out your emotions if you're having problems in life. I have no interest in getting into mean disputes in the tropical threads, I come here to talk the tropics in a laid back environment with my tropical buds.

This is rather uncalled for. No one is trying to argue for cheap shots. Also, most people simply disagree with your take on the season and ACE.

[turtlehurricane]

You forgot Hattie 1961, Joan 1988, and Iris 2001-- all Cat-4 Oct landfalls. The W-Caribbean countries are just as prone to big October cyclones as the USA. And the October majors in FL and Cuba are just as much "exceptions" as the MX landfalls you cite.

I should also point out that the W-Caribbean October landfalls are stronger. No Cat 4 has hit the Gulf Coast or FL in Oct in the last 60 years, whereas there have been multiple Cat-4 landfalls in the W Caribbean in Oct.

Yup, October is one of the more active months out of the season. Declaring the season over now is like declaring a football game over in the 3rd quarter. There's been many significant hurricanes even into November, though usually not in the U.S. I will be very surprised if we don't have several tropical cyclones throughout the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with several more in the open Atlantic.

You and I have been in the eye of a category 2 hurricane in October, clearly it isn't an odd month to have hurricanes in the U.S.

Two named storms forming in the entire month of September thus far is far from normal; that number is a record low for September since 1900 (or is likely to be since satellite data were not available in the early years) and is even below what one usually sees during Niño years. Such low activity during prime time has also never occurred before in a season with 12+ storms at any point. Also, I do not think there is any secret that conditions in the basin this year have been far less favorable than what is expected for years with 12+ named systems; just look at the manner in which the Plains ridge has resulted in a similar pattern for three straight seasons (highly unusual in a complex fluid atmosphere in which no two years are identical), with the East-Coast trough sweeping systems out to sea and a stable deep tropics hindering development.

This is rather uncalled for. No one is trying to argue for cheap shots. Also, most people simply disagree with your take on the season and ACE.

Uh huh, completely uncalled for. This was your latest post in response to one of mine on this board before today.

1. Use whom, not who, in the subtitle.

2. Someone should have waited a few years before giving you a met tag. How did that center reformation work out re: Isaac?

3. Where is the write-in, non-partisan option? (That is the one that I will pick this November--a write-in for a fictional candidate, probably.)

[Ground Scouring]

Uh huh, completely uncalled for. This was your latest post in response to one of mine on this board before today.

That was in PR and we all know how things can get in there. I think taking one post that I made elsewhere and posting it here shows that you may be taking little barbs somewhat too seriously. And it is completely unrelated to the tropics. If you want to argue with me, please do so privately. I do not wish to ruin the thread of Josh and create ill will among posters here. Thanks.

And do you care to address the fact-based part of my post that I addressed to you? I think it is more interesting scientifically.

[Ground Scouring]

That is true, but statistics disagree with you re: the vulnerability W-Caribbean countries vs. that of the U.S. or other nations in the Caribbean.

I just checked all the late-season majors--meaning in October or later--that formed in or passed through the W Caribbean, and I found 36 results. Of these, only three major hits--Inez 1966, Roxanne 1995, and Wilma 2005--occurred in MX (8%), while the remaining 33 (88%) hit elsewhere. Of these 33, 20 (61%) hit either FL, Cuba, Haiti, or the NE Caribbean, with notables including Lenny 1999 and Omar 2008. The three examples that you cited, plus the 1906 Keys hurricane in Nicaragua, were among the relatively smaller number of major hits in the W-Caribbean / Central American countries--and they were definitely, statistically in the minority. It is to be noted that Cuba is tops for Category 4/5 landfalls; compare the hits vs. those of the W-Caribbean or Central-American nations:

CATEGORY 4/5 STRIKES BY REGION

MX / Belize - 3 (Hattie 1961, Iris 2001, Wilma 2005)

Central America - 1 (Joan 1988)

Cuba, FL, or the Antilles - 6 (1882 Cuba, 1924 Cuba, 1926 Cuba, 1932 Cuba, Fox 1952, Lenny 1999, Michelle 2001, Omar 2008)*

*This total may go up if the reanalysis by Landsea and Hagen, which upgrades the October 1944 TC in Cuba and the September 1948 TC in SW FL to Category-4 status each, is approved by the best-track committee.

So I think the data clearly indicate that major hits in October-November, even Category 4/5 landfalls, are favored outside of the W Caribbean and/or Central America, at least historically.

By the way, according to the Climate Prediction Center ONI data, none of the events after 1950 occurred when El Niño was developing...the vast majority occurred in neutral ENSO years, although Lenny 1999 occurred during La Niña.

So...let us get back on track and talk some TC climatology!

[HurricaneJosh]

That is true, but statistics disagree with you re: the vulnerability W-Caribbean countries vs. that of the U.S. or other nations in the Caribbean.

I just checked all the late-season majors--meaning in October or later--that formed in or passed through the W Caribbean, and I found 36 results. Of these, only three major hits--Inez 1966, Roxanne 1995, and Wilma 2005--occurred in MX (8%), while the remaining 33 (88%) hit elsewhere. Of these 33, 20 (61%) hit either FL, Cuba, Haiti, or the NE Caribbean, with notables including Lenny 1999 and Omar 2008. The three examples that you cited, plus the 1906 Keys hurricane in Nicaragua, were among the relatively smaller number of major hits in the W-Caribbean / Central American countries--and they were definitely, statistically in the minority. It is to be noted that Cuba is tops for Category 4/5 landfalls; compare the hits vs. those of the W-Caribbean or Central-American nations:

CATEGORY 4/5 STRIKES BY REGION

MX / Belize - 3 (Hattie 1961, Iris 2001, Wilma 2005)

Central America - 1 (Joan 1988)

Cuba, FL, or the Antilles - 6 (1882 Cuba, 1924 Cuba, 1926 Cuba, 1932 Cuba, Fox 1952, Lenny 1999, Michelle 2001, Omar 2008)*

*This total may go up if the reanalysis by Landsea and Hagen, which upgrades the October 1944 TC in Cuba and the September 1948 TC in SW FL to Category-4 status each, is approved by the best-track committee.

So I think the data clearly indicate that major hits in October-November, even Category 4/5 landfalls, are favored outside of the W Caribbean and/or Central America, at least historically.

By the way, according to the Climate Prediction Center ONI data, none of the events after 1950 occurred when El Niño was developing...the vast majority occurred in neutral ENSO years, although Lenny 1999 occurred during La Niña.

My post was primarily focused on the last 60 years. What's interesting here is that a large portion of the Cuba examples are from very long ago-- not the modern era. Looking at just the last 60 years paints a very different picture-- Cuba is not such a late-season hot spot anymore, whereas BZ and MX have gotten nailed hard in October a few times just in the last decade or so.

P.S. Omar did not make landfall, and neither did Lenny as a Cat 4. Near misses don't count in this discussion. Please axe them from your list.

[Ground Scouring]

My post was primarily focused on the last 60 years. What's interesting here is that a large portion of the Cuba examples are from very long ago-- not the modern era. Looking at just the last 60 years paints a very different picture-- Cuba is not such a late-season hot spot anymore, whereas the BZ and MX have gotten nailed hard in October a few times just in the last decade or so.

P.S. Omar did not make landfall, and neither did Lenny as a Cat 4. Near misses don't count in this discussion. Please axe them from your list.

Yes, you have a good point there, and I have excised the latter 1990s-era examples from my list. I think the predominance of the Plains ridge (i.e., due to the possible multi-decadal drought emerging in that area) and the - PDO shift, which began in about 1998-1999, may have something to do with the shift from Cuba to BZ and MX, but I would like some ideas re: this trend.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yes, you have a good point there, and I have excised the latter 1990s-era examples from my list. I think the predominance of the Plains ridge (i.e., due to the possible multi-decadal drought emerging in that area) and the - PDO shift, which began in about 1998-1999, may have something to do with the shift from Cuba to BZ and MX, but I would like some ideas re: this trend.

Thanks!

It does look like there's been some shift W in terms of Oct activity-- because certainly in the earlier part of this century, Cuba was getting nailed in Oct a lot more.

[turtlehurricane]

That was in PR and we all know how things can get in there. I think taking one post that I made elsewhere and posting it here shows that you may be taking little barbs somewhat too seriously. And it is completely unrelated to the tropics. If you want to argue with me, please do so privately. I do not wish to ruin the thread of Josh and create ill will among posters here. Thanks.

And do you care to address the fact-based part of my post that I addressed to you? I think it is more interesting scientifically.

Climatology stats are one of the tools out there, but tropical cyclone climatology is well known to have problems due to low sample size. Yeah we've had one of the most quiet Septembers so far, but that doesn't have prognostic power. The dynamical reason things are quiet is persistent troughing in lots of the Atlantic, this can and will change especially since we're changing seasons and the mid-latitudes are more fluid.

Just don't insult me again and we won't have problems, it's that simple. I don't want to argue with anyone.

[Supercane]

Two named storms forming in the entire month of September thus far is far from normal; that number is a record low for September since 1900 (or is likely to be since satellite data were not available in the early years) and is even below what one usually sees during Niño years. Such low activity during prime time has also never occurred before in a season with 12+ storms at any point. Also, I do not think there is any secret that conditions in the basin this year have been far less favorable than what is expected for years with 12+ named systems; just look at the manner in which the Plains ridge has resulted in a similar pattern for three straight seasons (highly unusual in a complex fluid atmosphere in which no two years are identical), with the East-Coast trough sweeping systems out to sea and a stable deep tropics hindering development.

Just a quibble, but 1990 and 1996 also saw only 2 named storms form in September -- and they finished with 14 and 13 total named storms, respectively. And that's not the record low for September either -- that belongs to 1997 (at least in the satellite era) which only had 1 named storm form in September.

[Ground Scouring]

Well, the 18Z GFS and some previous runs have hinted at development in the Bay of Campeche in five to seven days, but the latest run is most insistent and shows a weak low hitting the Yucatán (108 hours) before taking off in the BOC the next day and then moving NE. What is interesting is that it coincides with the MJO and AAM shift that I, Jorge, and others have alluded to. At least the models are finally showing something, even though I personally do not believe it will develop due to the strong subtropical jet (shear).

[Ground Scouring]

Just a quibble, but 1990 and 1996 also saw only 2 named storms form in September -- and they finished with 14 and 13 total named storms, respectively. And that's not the record low for September either -- that belongs to 1997 (at least in the satellite era) which only had 1 named storm form in September.

Oh, thanks for the correction--1996 was quite unusual in that it coincided with a neutral-cool ENSO yet had such an inactive peak season. Of course, 1997 was the brutal strong Niño year, but even it looks favorable, almost, compared to the crap this year. This year, we have not even had a really interesting, major fish aside from Michael.

[thewxmann]

I'm virtually willing to give up on the Atlantic Basin at this point and focus on the svr prospects (which may be enhanced by the Bermuda/ST Ridge being in a more favorable position for moisture advection) and the EPAC side WRT tropical action.

WPAC has been sizzling hot these past few weeks.

[andyhb]

WPAC has been sizzling hot these past few weeks.

For closer to home activity, although you're right, with four straight Cat 4/5 typhoons.

[Ed Lizard]

Looks like the 0Z GFS almost tries to develop what looks like a cool season-ish coastal trough along the Texas coast as it moves Southward into the BoC

Edit to add- look at the pictures from the bottom up to see a coastal trough try to become a TC and then shear out...

[turtlehurricane]

GFS finally showing a cape verde TC in the next 5 days, but it recurves immediately.

The more interesting development is the trough plaguing the MDR is forecast to move east to just offshore Europe in 6 days. Some cutoff lows are generated in the process which will keep things hostile for at least a few more days after it exits but this might be the change we've been waiting for. See the whole thing on this 300 mb theta-e map, which is approximately theta at such an altitude, and using the thermal wind relationship you can deduce the winds from it. Areas of cooler theta-e in the subtropical Atlantic correspond to troughs and cutoff lows. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012092718&field=300mb+Theta-E&hour=Animation

[Mike.Ventrice]

Well, the 18Z GFS and some previous runs have hinted at development in the Bay of Campeche in five to seven days, but the latest run is most insistent and shows a weak low hitting the Yucatán (108 hours) before taking off in the BOC the next day and then moving NE. What is interesting is that it coincides with the MJO and AAM shift that I, Jorge, and others have alluded to. At least the models are finally showing something, even though I personally do not believe it will develop due to the strong subtropical jet (shear).

I have been monitoring the MJO passage over the Atlantic for approx a month now. Unfortunately, the MJO signal has attenuated. If a tropical cyclone does develop during the next couple of weeks, I'm not sure that we can attribute it to the MJO unless we see it reamplify. I know that I was advocating this MJO passage in previous posts, but it's difficult to predict whether it will maintain its amplitude.

[HurricaneJosh]

Ugh. Is there any good news? It's beyond pathetic.

We've had complete and utter crap for four years in a row now (2009-2012). Feels like the early 1980s. Actually, that's totally rude to the early '80s, as even those pathetic years brought major hurricanes to American shores.

[am19psu]

I have been monitoring the MJO passage over the Atlantic for approx a month now. Unfortunately, the MJO signal has attenuated. If a tropical cyclone does develop during the next couple of weeks, I'm not sure that we can attribute it to the MJO unless we see it reamplify. I know that I was advocating this MJO passage in previous posts, but it's difficult to predict whether it will maintain its amplitude.

Agree, Mike. I was telling Josh this earlier in the week. The Western Hemisphere looks mostly blah over the next two weeks at least, though I would still favor the East Pacific over the Atlantic.

[Amped]

Ugh. Is there any good news? It's beyond pathetic.

We've had complete and utter crap for four years in a row now (2009-2012). Feels like the early 1980s. Actually, that's totally rude to the early '80s, as even those pathetic years brought major hurricanes to American shores.

Yeah, the amount of blue is just ugly. And if it weren't for those two dabs of yellow-- on the Yucatan and in Louisiana-- it would be completely tragic.

The funny thing is, if the season completely craps out from here, I have to grade it a solid B from a chase perspective, as I squeezed two interesting chases out of it. Yeah, they were Cat 1s, but for what they were, they were cool-- 'specially Baby Ernie.

Having 2nd thoughts.

Isaac and Ernesto were annoying. Both had 3 days to stregnthen and waited until 12hrs before landfall to start doing it. The only thing that bugs me more is a hurrricane Lilly type rapid weakening in the final 12 hrs.

So in summary this hurrricane season was just like the average hurrricane season, pretty sucky.

[Amped]

Also found this paper on inner cores. It's a little summerizes and dumbs down some of the research thats been done in the last decade.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/staff/jvigh/documents/IWTC_VI_working_group_report_1_2.pdf

[free_man]

Ugh. Is there any good news? It's beyond pathetic.

We've had complete and utter crap for four years in a row now (2009-2012). Feels like the early 1980s. Actually, that's totally rude to the early '80s, as even those pathetic years brought major hurricanes to American shores.

Yeah, Alicia for one, that was a nasty landfall and a fairly "easy" chase lol

[Ed Lizard]

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al962012.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201210011850

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

...

AL, 96, 2012100118, , BEST, 0, 124N, 332W, 25, 1008, LO,

Good that something will replace Nadine for a few more weeks.

[Thunder Road]

What have the XTRP's verification scores been like so far this season?

[GaWx]

Since 1940, only three seasons had no new TC form 9/12-10/1, inclusive: 1997, 1991, and 1986. All three were El Ninos though all were stronger than weak.

[Radius]

Wish I lived in the Azores...