HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The 0z Euro and 0z/06z GFS demonstrates some of the points outlined. 0z GFS is too far south, and it opens back into a TW. 0z Euro is too far north and crashes with Hispaniola and is kept very weak because is under the influence of the TUTT. Finally, 06z treks over Barbados, a bit north of the 0z run, and fares a lot better, keeping a distinct circulation until it reaches the W Caribbean, where it restrengthens before visiting Chetumal. P.S. Split the difference between the 00Z Euro and the GFS, and you have a nice track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 P.S. Split the difference between the 00Z Euro and the GFS, and you have a nice track. It depends how this intensifies, but the 06z may not be a bad guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I see Phil is here... Interested in what he is seeing this morning. EDIT: 12z SHIPS was switched to the BAMM track. The change in shear from the 6z run is actually quite funny. Not gonna post it here since it will just add to confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 New month, new thread! I see exciting events starting in this here thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Don't mind me, just moved some of the last couple posts over to this thread so conversation can continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 New month, new thread! I see exciting events starting in this here thread. You mean after 99L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 You mean after 99L? Oh snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Huh, 12z SHIPS might have been run off of the 6z BAMM. Not 100% sure because I'm multi-tasking like crazy right now, but I dont even think the BAM suite made it in for 12z due to the supercomputer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 does anyone feel that it could hit the East Coast, because I am going to Myrtle Beach Saturday for a week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 does anyone feel that it could hit the East Coast, because I am going to Myrtle Beach Saturday for a week? Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Sweet!! Thanks am19psu appreciate it!! I love hurricanes but not when I am supposed to be going on vacation! Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 does anyone feel that it could hit the East Coast, because I am going to Myrtle Beach Saturday for a week? The center should cross the coast 5 miles W of Myrtle Beach with wind of 160 kt. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The center should cross the coast 5 miles W of Myrtle Beach with wind of 160 kt. Enjoy! HAHAHA Funny Josh!!! oh btw did you go to the weather conference last month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The center should cross the coast 5 miles W of Myrtle Beach with wind of 160 kt. Enjoy! You mean the center will fall apart like Don as it makes it approach to land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 HAHAHA Funny Josh!!! oh btw did you go to the weather conference last month? Yes, I did. You mean the center will fall apart like Don as it makes it approach to land You forget the rest of my illustrious portfolio: http://icyclone.com/chases/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 ..and suddenly this becomes a banter thread. Some new TOTs (Tropical Overshooting Tops) are developing in the region where 99L needs them the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Not a chance. TVCN consensus and UK Met says not to give up on Florida yet, although the UK Met almost destroys it crossing the long way over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 IMO, the first real recon mission of the season will be tomorrow. Debby was just a complete horror-show to follow. 1. SUSPECT AREA.....APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- A. 02/1800Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 02/1530Z D. 12.4N 54.4W E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was just issued by the guys at NRL. Convection starting to blossom near the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 ..and suddenly this becomes a banter thread. All in good time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Given what I've seen on visible imagery and the recent microwave passes, its likely that 99L already has a surface circulation, and whether or not this system gets upgraded to a TD will likely be due to how its convective organization progresses over the next 12-18 hours. That convective organization is not a given yet. We are still in the middle of a battle for synoptic pattern dominance. In one corner, we have a strong upper level trough thats still inducing significant westerly shear over the Atlantic basin, especially between 40-60W 15N and above. On the other, we have a significant convectively coupled kevin wave (CCKW) which should enhance upper level easterlies after its passage. As many people have already mentioned this morning, the track of 99L is becoming critically important. A track further south will likely keep it away from the strongest shear of the TUTT, while allowing it to take advantage of the easterly flow and upper level divergence of the CCKW. However, this might make its track across the Caribbean more difficult hugging the South American coastline where the low-level easterly flow is strongest. On the flip side, if the storm goes too far north, the upper level westerlies will almost certainly rip it apart and decouple the low/mid level circulation centers. However, it might have a chance to better survive in the Caribbean and re-develop in the Western Caribbean. These two scenarios are highlighted by the ECMWF and the GFS models. The GFS takes the storm further south, and thus, it survives longer than the ECMWF under more favorable upper level conditions. However, the storm struggles when it gets in the Caribbean. The ECMWF is much faster and further north, resulting in less influence of the CCKW (its influence decreases with latitude). In addition, the vertical wind shear is higher which leads to center decoupling from the mid-level center and the system falls apart well before reaching the Lesser Antilles. Looking at the short term trends on visible today, the center is around 12N, 47.5W. This is slightly further south than the ECMWF and slightly faster than the GFS. Thus its really tricky to figure out at this time which model is right. However, if the storm remains further south today, I would lean toward the GFS solution, which should result in the system not accelerating since the synoptic low-level flow should actually slow down after the kelvin wave passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Phil nailed it. Either stays south into Central America or runs into shear-mageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 <snip> shear-mageddon ™ FYP. Deserves a trademark (see: slopgyre™ ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Almost to the wave number truncation and new GFS holds out hope for Gulf Cancun excitement. Edit for 12 more hours of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navywxman Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was just issued by the guys at NRL. Convection starting to blossom near the LLC. TCFA's are actually issued by the Fleet Weather Center in Nofolk, Va It is automatically posted to the NRLs website... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 TCFA's are actually issued by the Fleet Weather Center in Nofolk, Va And they're actually tied directly to NHC going high risk, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 ^^ Thanks for the correction. Used to know that, but I haven't been using the FNMOC site lately. 99L looks somewhat decent on visible with an evident LLC, but IR depicts a sheared mess. 12z GFS looks remarkably similar to the 6z FIM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navywxman Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 And they're actually tied directly to NHC going high risk, right? Not directly tied but they do collaberate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. IR looks ghastly, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Later today or tonight and only 70%? Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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