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August 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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It's interesting that temps this August are turning out somewhat like last August. Just like last August, Newark only

made it to 95 degrees at the beginning of the month. My guess is that we are finished with the

real hot temperatures of 95 and above. The only question now is will we just see future readings

like last August and September top out in the upper 80's on occasion or do we get to 90 degrees

again in the hotspots like Newark?

We have a good shot to hit 90 Friday and Saturday.

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Stationary storm between Verona and Bloomfield, NJ.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

416 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

* AT 411 PM EDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM A THUNDERSTORM

OVER THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED AN

ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...

OVERPECK CREEK...SECOND RIVER...PASSAIC RIVER...WEASEL BROOK...BERRYS

CREEK...SPROUT BROOK...HACKENSACK RIVER...MILL CREEK.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL

CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES

AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE

ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS

SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE

PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS

SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY

AUTOMOBILE.

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At Jones Beach now. Great weather. After a cool BKN start it's brightening and warming. The water is very warm, probably close to air temperature right now.

Yeah, the bouys are in the 74-78 range now which is really warm for late August.

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8/22 Dailies some more clouds than I had thought and those in Essex county - some heavy rain from a stray storm

TEB: 89/64 (+2)

NYC: 82/68 (+0)

EWR: 84/98 (+1)

LGA: 83/72 (+2)

JFK: 82/67 (+1)

ISP: 81/63 (+0)

NBSNWK: 86/58 (-1)

TTN: 84/62 (+0)

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Some more clouds nearby the coast today but otherwise a very nice day in the low and mid 80s. Great stretch of weather. Still looks warmer as we head towards the wekend and into the closing week of August. Isaac may muddy up the weather the end of next week thu - sat but still plenty of time to see how things progress.

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The Euro ensemble mean is on board for another day of 95 degrees or a little higher at a place like Newark

near the end of the month. The heat can really build with with the extreme drought conditions over the

center of the country.

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both 1957 and 2002 had low 90's in September for the max...This is what I think we will see in September this year for a day or two...No doubt we will see some heat before the Summer is over...95 for Newark sounds right and 92 for Central Park...TWT...

I think the heat could be exaggerated. May get some warmer weather, but I just don't see extreme heat or many 90s. Some of that heat may try to work east, but fronts could save the day.

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The 18z GFS also has a torrid end to August with 20C 850s over the region:

post-475-0-89909100-1345763235_thumb.gif

Despite the cooler conditions over the center of the country so far this month, all it takes is for the upper ridge

to build back over the extreme drought areas and the heat builds right back.

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Despite the cooler conditions over the center of the country so far this month, all it takes is for the upper ridge

to build back over the extreme drought areas and the heat builds right back.

It does take the right alignment, and the models don't have this lasting long anyway. Back to just warm by day 10.

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I think the heat could be exaggerated. May get some warmer weather, but I just don't see extreme heat or many 90s. Some of that heat may try to work east, but fronts could save the day.

I doubt the heat lasts long as the northern stream may get a front in, as you say, but I do think we'll witness 2-3 more days of 90s for the major NYC/PHL stations. It almost always occur that we have a cool-down in late August and then warm back up around Labor Day/1st day of school. My classroom is air conditioned at my new school in Brooklyn, thankfully.

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I doubt the heat lasts long as the northern stream may get a front in, as you say, but I do think we'll witness 2-3 more days of 90s for the major NYC/PHL stations. It almost always occur that we have a cool-down in late August and then warm back up around Labor Day/1st day of school. My classroom is air conditioned at my new school in Brooklyn, thankfully.

Possible that PHL has 3 more because they run as one of the hotter stations. Hopefully this will be the last 90s chance.

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