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Summer update III: SNE region's 4 primary climo sites all remain solidly above normal as of the closing of July 14.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I, and I suspect a few others, are interested in genuine Meteorological discussion/obs/ and forecast speculation based upon clad reasoning more than that nonsense that now describes the last 5 or so pages of the last thread. Lets keep this one clean? Thanks!

* * *

What I find fascinating is this is the AO/NAO are positive, and neutralizing respectively from today going forward, yet these operational versions seem to be "cheating" in a sense. The domain of the NAO is clearly positive heading into D7 in the operational runs (CPC's nightly computation has it at near 0.0, about a total 1.5SD recovery in all members), yet they are still balling up this -3SD quasi closed polar stream vortex and trundling it through Ontario. At 72 hours the 12z Euro even plots an area near 0C at 850mb near the SE tip of James Bay! By then, its depiction of the surrounding medium has the D. Straight and Greenland regions neutralized to even ever so slightly negative; which in effect means that trough core in Ontario should not exists. Yet here we are a mere 72 hours out and both operational Euro and GFS won't give up.

Back when the current 72 hour prog was still the late middle to extended ranges, the region was supposed to be up under a ridge. The depictions back then were, and still are actually a much better fit. This is could a text lesson in anomalies relative to anomalies, which does sometimes occur. Frankly, all of last winter was that if you ask me ... but that's a different debate. Originally, we were set to have a 2 shot at warmth, followed by a brief recess with convection - that's tonight actually - but then as the shear axis left over from the Midwest came through, the ridge was then set to bulge in, probably bringing us the hottest regional verification of the year. Thankfully for those that hate heat, this anomalous flow that has evolved in the models since then may just save the area.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Will today be day 4 straight for BOS? Day 5/6 see easier so if it happens today it will be the longest run since 2002?

Thats pretty impressive in a summer with weak heat waves Jerry, Very quietly we are approaching the point of no return in regards to warmest year in recorded history.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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So lets run down on the next hour will go. Pete will come in and say a bear went through his shed and paste the p & C for 2k and claim it has not been warm. Kevin will then post the dewpoint of some offshore buoy and verbatim give an incorrect depiction of the d10 euro op. Just another morning in the SNE subforum.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

The 5th heatwave of this nasty hot summer begins today in CT,

Euro aboslutely torches us again days 8-10. Hopefully Don was correct

That's such a weak stat. Because Sunday failed to deliver we'll have two measley 3 day heat waves. Instead of one more impressive streak that turned into a fail.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

That's such a weak stat. Because Sunday failed to deliver we'll have two measley 3 day heat waves. Instead of one more impressive streak that turned into a fail.

Yup..would have been nicer if we could have done 7 straight days of over 90..instead we have 2 heatwaves broken up by a day of light sprinkles/showers for 95% of us..and dews in the 70's

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I don't quite see it as a cool down, unless somehow waves develop along the front and we get rain. Looks like AWT...above normal but no blowtorch.

I would call Thur- Sat and then later next week a warm down. A warm down is when temps and dews drop some, but still are above normal.

A mild down is when temps drop to normal or even slightly below.

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