nflwxman Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 GISS global land and sea anomaly: +0.47°C (+0.13°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. YTD: +0.493°C. Northern Hemisphere for July was 3rd warmest on record (+0.75°C) and Northern Hemisphere land areas were 2nd warmest (+0.97°C). A more detailed analysis will be posted this evening. I noticed something strange about the +0.13 C above the 1981-2010 baseline in July. Is that supposed to say +0.23 C? The reason I ask is because June came it at +0.56 C (1951-1980 baseline) and +0.33 C (1981-2010 baseline). Wouldn't a drop of 0.1 degrees C off the 1951-1980 baseline in July should be close to a 0.1 degree C drop off the 1981-2010 baseline? Or is the baseline anomaly that different from month to month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 I noticed something strange about the +0.13 C above the 1981-2010 baseline in July. Is that supposed to say +0.23 C? The reason I ask is because June came it at +0.56 C (1951-1980 baseline) and +0.33 C (1981-2010 baseline). Wouldn't a drop of 0.1 degrees C off the 1951-1980 baseline in July should be close to a 0.1 degree C drop off the 1981-2010 baseline? Or is the baseline anomaly that different from month to month? The baseline differs from month to month. The average July anomaly (1981-2010) was around +0.34°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 The baseline differs from month to month. The average July anomaly (1981-2010) was around +0.34°C. Upon looking at the graph, I might have made a typo in the opening message. The 1981-2010 baseline for June might have been +0.333°C. I'll check the numbers tonight and correct the error if, in fact, there's an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 GISS global land and sea anomaly: +0.47°C (+0.13°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. YTD: +0.493°C. Northern Hemisphere for July was 3rd warmest on record (+0.75°C) and Northern Hemisphere land areas were 2nd warmest (+0.97°C). A more detailed analysis will be posted this evening. Don, Could you post the stats for the Southern Hemisphere and the Globe? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 Correction: The June anomaly was +0.217°C above the 1981-2010 baseline of +0.333°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 Don, Could you post the stats for the Southern Hemisphere and the Globe? Thanks in advance. Snowlover 123, The +0.47°C anomaly (+0.13°C above the 1981-2010 baseline) was the global anomaly. The Southern Hemisphere anomalies are as follows: Land: +0.33°C (-0.094°C vs. the 1981-2010 baseline) Land & Ocean: +0.21°C (-0.119°C vs. the 1981-2010 baseline) -- coolest since 2004 there. The Southern Hemisphere's smaller warm anomaly (cool vs. 1981-2010 baseline) partially offset the very warm Northern Hemisphere anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Snowlover 123, The +0.47°C anomaly (+0.13°C above the 1981-2010 baseline) was the global anomaly. The Southern Hemisphere anomalies are as follows: Land: +0.33°C (-0.094°C vs. the 1981-2010 baseline) Land & Ocean: +0.21°C (-0.119°C vs. the 1981-2010 baseline) -- coolest since 2004 there. The Southern Hemisphere's smaller warm anomaly (cool vs. 1981-2010 baseline) partially offset the very warm Northern Hemisphere anomalies. Thanks Don, What place did this July 2012 rank when compared to past Julys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 Thanks Don, What place did this July 2012 rank when compared to past Julys? Globally, it ranked 13th warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 July 2012 Summary: Globally, the temperature was +0.47°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. July 2012 was the 13th warmest July on record. Overall, July 2012 was +0.128°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. Most of the Northern Hemisphere saw warm anomalies in July. In the Southern Hemisphere, most of Australia, parts of South America, and parts of Antarctica saw cool anomalies. The first 7 months of 2012 had a temperature anomaly of +0.493°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. January-July 2012 ranks as the 10th warmest year on record for that timeframe. 2006 was slightly warmer with a 7-month anomaly of +0.497°C. Overall, the January 1-July 31, 2012 timeframe had an anomaly of +0.121°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. July 2012 was also warmer than the 30-year moving average (1983-2012). That moving average was warmer than the current 1981-2010 baseline, indicating that global temperatures were continuing to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Thanks for the update, Don. Kind of interesting that GISS has been running a bit cooler than the UAH satellite-based record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 Globally, the temperature was +0.56°C above the 1951-1980 baseline during August. August 2012 was tied with 2007 and 2009 for the 6th warmest on record.. Overall, August 2012 was +0.215°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. August 2012 was also +0.184°C above the 30-year moving average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 August 2012 Summary: Globally, the temperature was +0.56°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. August 2012 was tied with 2007 and 2009 for the 6th warmest August on record. Overall, August 2012 was +0.215°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. Most world saw warm anomalies in August. The first 8 months of 2012 had a temperature anomaly of +0.494°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. January-August 2012 ranks as the 10th warmest year on record for that timeframe. Overall, the January 1-August 31, 2012 timeframe had an anomaly of +0.118°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. August 2012 was also warmer than the 30-year moving average (1983-2012). That moving average was warmer than the current 1981-2010 baseline, indicating that global temperatures were continuing to increase. Finally, some might note that despite the +0.56°C anomaly in August, the 8-month anomaly was only slightly higher than the 7-month figure reported at the end of July. That's because January and February saw downward revisions. January's anomaly was reduced from +0.34°C to +0.32°C and February's was pared to +0.37°C from +0.40°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 August 2012 Summary: Globally, the temperature was +0.56°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. August 2012 was tied with 2007 and 2009 for the 6th warmest August on record. Overall, August 2012 was +0.215°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. Most world saw warm anomalies in August. The first 8 months of 2012 had a temperature anomaly of +0.494°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. January-August 2012 ranks as the 10th warmest year on record for that timeframe. Overall, the January 1-August 31, 2012 timeframe had an anomaly of +0.118°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. August 2012 was also warmer than the 30-year moving average (1983-2012). That moving average was warmer than the current 1981-2010 baseline, indicating that global temperatures were continuing to increase. Finally, some might note that despite the +0.56°C anomaly in August, the 8-month anomaly was only slightly higher than the 7-month figure reported at the end of July. That's because January and February saw downward revisions. January's anomaly was reduced from +0.34°C to +0.32°C and February's was pared to +0.37°C from +0.40°C. Oh my Don, no way. Ole Jimmy Hansen is freezing the books now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 September 2012 Summary: Globally, the temperature was +0.60°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. September 2012 was the 4th warmest September on record. Only September 2005, 2009, and 2003 were warmer. Overall, September 2012 was +0.263°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. Most of the world saw warm anomalies in September. The first 9 months of 2012 had a temperature anomaly of +0.503°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. January-September 2012 ranks as the 10th warmest year on record for that timeframe. Overall, the January 1-September 30, 2012 timeframe had an anomaly of +0.133°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. September 2012 was also warmer than the 30-year moving average (1983-2012). That moving average was warmer than the current 1981-2010 baseline, indicating that global temperatures were continuing to increase. Finally, the August-September period had a mean anomaly of +0.585°C. It is possible that the recent increase in global warm anomalies may have reflected warmth in the ENSO 3.4 region. However, in recent weeks, the warm anomalies have all but disappeared there, though it's too soon to be sure that the emergent El Niño has collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Very interesting Don that the surface temperatures have been consistently running cooler than UAH/RSS this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2012 Author Share Posted October 15, 2012 NCDC Global Land & Ocean Temperature Data: September 2012: Anomaly: +0.6716°C (2nd warmest on record) Anomaly vs. 1981-2010 climatology: +0.289°C Anomaly vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.260°C January-September 2012: Anomaly: +0.572°C (8th warmest on record) Anomaly vs. 1981-2010 climatology: +0.151°C Anomaly vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.128°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 NCDC Global Land & Ocean Temperature Data: September 2012: Anomaly: +0.6716°C (2nd warmest on record) Anomaly vs. 1981-2010 climatology: +0.289°C Anomaly vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.260°C January-September 2012: Anomaly: +0.572°C (8th warmest on record) Anomaly vs. 1981-2010 climatology: +0.151°C Anomaly vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.128°C NCDC has been coming in a bit warmer than GISS this year. Does anybody know which data set carries more measurement points? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Quick October 2012 GISS Summary: Monthly Anomaly: +0.69°C (2nd warmest on record). Only October 2005 (+0.73°C) was warmer. Year-to-Date Anomaly: +0.526°C (10th warmest on record). The 3-month moving average anomaly has risen further to +0.627°C. That's the highest 3-month figure since November 2010 (+0.630°C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 October 2012 Summary: Globally, the temperature was +0.69°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. October 2012 was the 2nd warmest October on record. Only October 2005 was warmer. Overall, October 2012 was +0.344°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. Most of the world saw warm anomalies in October. The Arctic and Antarctic regions were much warmer than normal. The first 10 months of 2012 had a temperature anomaly of +0.526°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. January-October 2012 ranks as the 10th warmest year on record for that timeframe. Overall, the January 1-October 31, 2012 timeframe had an anomaly of +0.155°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. October 2012 was also warmer than the 30-year moving average (1983-2012). That moving average was warmer than the current 1981-2010 baseline, indicating that global temperatures were continuing to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Certainly impressive with the weakest solar max in a hundred years. It's actually weaker than expected so it could be longer than that. The ENSO state and -PDO as well. I think it's far to early to put any kind if prediction on 2013 for warmest year on record. Folks who know a whole lot more than I do seem to think the chances for NINO are dead. But there appears to be quite a bit of warm water pooled subsurface out in the equatorial Pacific It's almost guarenteed the July-Sep update will be a new record high since SST's have been at yearly max's during said period as well as ENSO conditions became much warmer during this period. That region is basically the only place globally not above normal OHC wise. November is going to come in probaby in the top 5 on GISS and UAH. The arctic region is on fire and sst's so far are stil running pretty warm global inspite of ENSO. If those sub surface waters make it to the surface who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Certainly impressive with the weakest solar max in a hundred years. I agree. It's another hint that solar activity is not driving global temperature trends. Some additional details for October: Land & Ocean Anomalies: Global: +0.69°C (2nd warmest) Northern Hemisphere: +0.77°C (9th warmest) Southern Hemisphere: +0.60°C (warmest on record; old record: +0.51°C, 2005) Land Anomalies: Global: +0.92°C (3rd warmest) Northern Hemisphere: +1.02°C (7th warmest) Southern Hemisphere: +0.82°C (warmest on record; old record: +0.79°C, 2005) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Interestingly, Oct 2012 had a .294 anomaly for RSS, which was 6th warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I agree. It's another hint that solar activity is not driving global temperature trends. Some additional details for October: Land & Ocean Anomalies: Global: +0.69°C (2nd warmest) Northern Hemisphere: +0.77°C (9th warmest) Southern Hemisphere: +0.60°C (warmest on record; old record: +0.51°C, 2005) Land Anomalies: Global: +0.92°C (3rd warmest) Northern Hemisphere: +1.02°C (7th warmest) Southern Hemisphere: +0.82°C (warmest on record; old record: +0.79°C, 2005) Can you explain how solar was measured in the 1930's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Can you explain how solar was measured in the 1930's? The measures are not as precise as today's, even when one compares sunspot data (which in the past was based strictly on physical observation from telescopes). Statistically, the relationship between TSI and global temperatures has weakened over the past 30 years. Clearly, TSI has an influence, it just isn't the leading influence in recent decades. Were solar activity the leading driver, one should have seen a much more dramatic response to the deepest and longest solar minimum since at least the early 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vergent Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Can you explain how solar was measured in the 1930's? http://www.griffitho...rg/obshist.html http://www.griffithobservatory.org/exhibits/bcoelostat.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 November 2012 Summary: Globally, the temperature was +0.68°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. November 2012 was the 2nd warmest November on record. Only November 2010 was warmer with a +0.72°C anomaly. Overall, November 2012 was +0.347°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. Most of the world saw warm anomalies in November, but pronounced cool anomalies were located over Asia and parts of North America. The Arctic region was much warmer than normal. The first 11 months of 2012 had a temperature anomaly of +0.539°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. January-November 2012 ranks as the 9th warmest year on record for that timeframe. Overall, the January 1-November 30, 2012 timeframe had an anomaly of +0.142°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. November 2012 was also warmer than the 30-year moving average (1983-2012). That moving average was warmer than the current 1981-2010 baseline, indicating that global temperatures were continuing to increase. 2012 is all but certain to finish as the 9th warmest year on record. Only a +0.25°C December anomaly, the coldest month since January 2008 and coldest December since 2000 would knock it to 10th place. A +0.80°C anomaly (5th warmest on record) and warmest December on record would tie it for 8th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Also, Fall 2012 ranked as the 2nd warmest autumn (September-November) on record in terms of global land and sea temperature anomalies. Only Fall 2005 was warmer. The five warmest autumn temperature anomalies are: 1. +0.683°C, 2005 2. +0.660°C, 2012 3. +0.640°C, 2009 4. +0.627°C, 2010 5. +0.600°C, 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Don If Arctic ice, snow & permafrost melting had held steady over the period, are there any indications of where global temperatures would now stand? Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Don If Arctic ice, snow & permafrost melting had held steady over the period, are there any indications of where global temperatures would now stand? Terry Perhaps slightly cooler, assuming the same levels of atmospheric CO2 (the thawing permafrost could eventually accelerate the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations). The September-November period has been warming a little faster in the Northern Hemisphere than the world as a whole. Declining summer sea ice and emerging Arctic amplification during the fall may be contributing to that somewhat faster warming. However, at least to date, I haven't seen any literature that makes definitive estimates so a lot of caution is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Don If Arctic ice, snow & permafrost melting had held steady over the period, are there any indications of where global temperatures would now stand? Terry The relatively small albedo changes I have calculated elsewhere should give some indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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