Research ("space weather") driven severe weather forecasts

[Roger Smith]

I will post some research-driven severe weather outlooks in this thread during the heat wave situation (which the research helped to predict, see long-range forecast thread).

Without going into a lot of detail at first (maybe after the summer) this research looks at interactions between the Sun and Jupiter, and how this affects the earth's upper atmosphere when we're in the way (sometimes these interactions take place in sectors of the solar system not occupied at that time by the Earth).

As a first approximation, and details will be added once we get through the summer and the forecasts, the "ring of fire" phenomenon is a predictable consequence of the earth being in position to interact with the "J-field" system which occupies about 20% of the inner solar system at any time. The energy packets in the ring of fire correspond to disturbances generated at Jupiter's intense magnetic field and transmitted inwards by what appears to be a laser-like phenomenon that operates much, much more focused in energy than conventional gravitation or even electro-magnetism might suggest. The energy rotates counter-clockwise and peaks at predictable times for reasons that I will outline after the summer. But there are cycles in this, notably, 3.55 days, 7.1 days, and 2.6 days.

The first forecast to be published here is for the overnight period Friday July 6 to Saturday July 7.

A major energy peak occurs at 03z on Saturday 7th. This should activate a strong meso-scale type event and most likely will focus in on the wave moving across the plains states towards the Lake Michigan region. My preliminary assessment is that a strong frontal wave will evolve into a powerful MCS around DBQ-RFD affecting parts of eastern IA, southeast MN, southern WI and northern IL. As this thread moves forward, I will list some times and approximate locations for future and even "over-the-horizon" events but want to underline that the main intention here is to explain rather than predict -- prediction requires a full understanding of the second-order variations in an already approximately-positioned variable (the J-field) and so it's the timing that is of more interest. In any case, the main application of this research would be to short-term severe weather forecasting.

The bottom line on this first prediction is, watch out northern IL for the effects of this MCS as it rotates southeast across Chicagoland.

Would appreciate if we can time discussion so that for the summer of 2012 it's mostly about predictions and then in the autumn we could get into the theory as I am able to refine the explanation and parameters.

[Mallow]

Why would this target specific regions?

Why the US?

Can you give me a less ambiguous physical explanation of the processes you believe are at play?

Can you point to a verification of multiple forecasts that show that there is statistically significant skill with this methodology?

[Msalgado]

I'm also very interested in the methodology of this forecast. Even if the forecast verifies, it would be nice to judge it on the methods and not simply the results.

[Roger Smith]

I will try to answer questions like these in more detail, thought it might be interesting to look at a few examples of the severe storm application before going into such an explanation, because would imagine that just the basic theory without reference to some real-time examples would be quickly incomprehensible.

Have only a few mins here before time out (not at home) but the basic reason why in US and not elsewhere is assumption that effect focuses into magnetic field at its strongest point which is defined (as per some earlier threads I posted) as "timing line one" which is more or less the point where due north is also magnetic north. It is also the axis of the trough that exists in upper levels running approx SSE from Manitoba to South Carolina. Warming events reverse this trough to a ridge and to make it very brief, J-field warmings are strongest therefore ridge is largest, etc. But this thread will be about rotating disturbances in said field.

[Ed Lizard]

Any literature on the "J field" you can link to? Any other work on orbits of other planets and Earth weather?

[WxMidwest]

I hope your prog is right, I'd love to see some real action around here @ RFD..

[Mallow]

I will try to answer questions like these in more detail, thought it might be interesting to look at a few examples of the severe storm application before going into such an explanation, because would imagine that just the basic theory without reference to some real-time examples would be quickly incomprehensible.

Have only a few mins here before time out (not at home) but the basic reason why in US and not elsewhere is assumption that effect focuses into magnetic field at its strongest point which is defined (as per some earlier threads I posted) as "timing line one" which is more or less the point where due north is also magnetic north. It is also the axis of the trough that exists in upper levels running approx SSE from Manitoba to South Carolina. Warming events reverse this trough to a ridge and to make it very brief, J-field warmings are strongest therefore ridge is largest, etc. But this thread will be about rotating disturbances in said field.

Sorry, just not buying it as of yet... I'm skeptical and this is vague.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

I'm curious about this process, and although it sounds to good to be true. I will give all literature a chance to verify and the ability to explain the science behind the thoughts.

[Derecho!]

I can't find any related peer-reviewed literature re: the j-field.

I've always been a bit surprised at how much this guy is indulged here.

[Ed Lizard]

If the "J Field" can be used as a predictive tool, than obviously it can either measured and quantified, or accurately predicted itself.

I'll settle (for now) for links about J Field measurement or prediction.

[Derecho!]

I'm curious about this process, and although it sounds to good to be true. I will give all literature a chance to verify and the ability to explain the science behind the thoughts.

This forecast was posted here after SPC had already placed the area/time period discussed in the forecast in a 15% area. The SPC area is a tad further N and W, but close enough that I'm sure verification of SPCs forecast will also be proclaimed as verification of Roger's forecast.

Now MY forecast thoughts....

Without going into a lot of detail at first because I'm still making up stuff as I go along, my research looks at the interactions between the Sun and the Moons of Pluto. I won't bore you with actual details, but the Earth is in position to intereact with with the "BS-field" which is generated as the orbital period of Pluto's moon Charon causes a proton-beam like phenomenon much more focused in energy than "conventional "gravitation or even boring old electro-magnatism might suggest (hint hint folks, given that I'm not talking about the Strong Force or the Weak Force, I'm talking about a completely undiscovered 5th force of nature being key to my forecast). This energy rotates counter-counter-clockwise and backwards in a triple helix moebius strip.

The first forecast to be published here is for the afternoon of Friday the 6th.

A major energy peak occurs at 18-20z on Friday the 6th. This should activate a strong heating-type event and most likely will focus in on the mid-Atlantic states. As this thread moves forward, I will list some times and approximate locations for future and even "over-the-horizon" events but right now I want to focus on duplicating forecasts already made by legitimate scientific methods so I can claim credit for them. Just in case this prediction fails, I want to underline that the main intention here is to explain rather than predict. Prediction requires a full understanding of the watchimacallits in a already approximately hand-waved pseudo-variable (the BS-field) and so it's the timing that is of more interest; oh wait, I said I was more interested in explaining than predicting timing before; nevermind In any case, the main application of this research would be to befuddling people on weather boards with gobblygook.

The bottom line on this first prediction is, watch the DC area for the effects of this extreme heat!

[OSUmetstud]

I'm kinda interested in how this MCS is going to plow through the center of the upper level ridge.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

This forecast was posted here after SPC had already placed the area/time period discussed in the forecast in a 15% area. The SPC area is a tad further N and W, but close enough that I'm sure verification of SPCs forecast will also be proclaimed as verification of Roger's forecast.

Now MY forecast thoughts....

Without going into a lot of detail at first because I'm still making up stuff as I go along, my research looks at the interactions between the Sun and the Moons of Pluto. I won't bore you with actual details, but the Earth is in position to intereact with with the "BS-field" which is generated as the orbital period of Pluto's moon Charon causes a proton-beam like phenomenon much more focused in energy than "conventional "gravitation or even boring old electro-magnatism might suggest (hint hint folks, given that I'm not talking about the Strong Force or the Weak Force, I'm talking about a completely undiscovered 5th force of nature being key to my forecast). This energy rotates counter-counter-clockwise and backwards in a triple helix moebius strip.

The first forecast to be published here is for the afternoon of Friday the 6th.

A major energy peak occurs at 18-20z on Friday the 6th. This should activate a strong heating-type event and most likely will focus in on the mid-Atlantic states. As this thread moves forward, I will list some times and approximate locations for future and even "over-the-horizon" events but right now I want to focus on duplicating forecasts already made by legitimate scientific methods so I can claim credit for them. Just in case this prediction fails, I want to underline that the main intention here is to explain rather than predict. Prediction requires a full understanding of the watchimacallits in a already approximately hand-waved pseudo-variable (the BS-field) and so it's the timing that is of more interest; oh wait, I said I was more interested in explaining than predicting timing before; nevermind In any case, the main application of this research would be to befuddling people on weather boards with gobblygook.

The bottom line on this first prediction is, watch the DC area for the effects of this extreme heat!

I'm not going to lie, I LOL'd hard. I give everyone a chance to explain themselves before today dismissing ideas, I think it is only fair to have him explain further in depth, and to provide some information on his or others ideas. Sure it sounds like BS, but I'm willing to at least he hear him out.

[Roger Smith]

My research is ongoing and no attempt has been made to publish since a much earlier stage in the mid-1990s. I am under no illusions about how difficult it might prove to be for publication to occur, but I thought some people here might be interested in these concepts. I am not trying to "sell" them, but some forum members have noted a higher accuracy level in recent seasonal forecasts.

The concept of a J-field system (leaving aside this application to severe weather) is not very complicated and I'm frankly surprised it hasn't been noticed by other (published) researchers. Since I've devoted most of a lifetime to doing this research, I have naturally gone through a career path that makes publication all the more difficult. Nothing I can do about that, actually the concern for me now is more that I could quite easily die soon and the research would just die out. I am making various efforts to avoid this, although to some extent the journey itself was the main justification.

Now, if you wanted to see some proof of an effect on earth's weather from a postulated set of J-field sectors, I could show a graph that I have derived from 178 years of data at Toronto (which would be fairly similar, I assume, to locations between Chicago and Boston) of daily anomalies in a 398.9-day synodic year period. Synodic sounds vaguely religious but in astronomy means the period between oppositions. Jupiter is moving about one-twelfth of our orbital speed, on average, and it takes the earth an extra 34 days to catch up to the slow-moving Jupiter. In more complicated analysis, the orbit of Jupiter being more elliptical than ours, it's possible to divide the data into segments where the actual length of year (which I call J-year) is more specific to the orbit, and it varies from 395 to 405 days. We've recently passed the perihelion of Jupiter and so the data set for this particular J-year would include all similar cases where Jupiter's opposition date was in a set range of dates from mid-November to mid-December.

I have the graph of the raw data (all 178 years at the more crude 398.9-day period) on screen on another computer and could show this, but I've found that the results are much better to apply to forecasting from segments of data since it appears that the J-field system is not a static set that is dragged along, but that it tends to flex slightly so the features in the raw data are more separated out in the longer segments. Since the data begins in 1841, a year with a June 5 opposition of Jupiter, the most recent "J-year" is just starting up. In other words, the graph I am about to describe applied most recently to the 13-month J-year from June 2011 to June 2012 inclusive.

The raw data begin with about 2 months of mainly above normal temperatures, then go to a period of 2-3 months with below normal readings. This first peak is evidence of the first of four components in the set of J-fields. The second peak occurs around the Jupiter opposition indicating (in long-term average) a field sector that is linear between the Sun and Jupiter. A third and more intense warming takes place about two months after that, followed by a relatively low segment (around the ninth month of this 13-month period). The last three to four months are warmer than average and the warmest day of the series (day 364) reaches an average anomaly of +2.4 F deg.

Sketched out, this gives an overview of a system with two field segments connecting Jupiter to the Sun (one linear and one curved in front of that) and then two more field segments as reflections through the inner solar system to the opposite side of the solar system from the first two segments. The more detailed segment analysis (segments of time) shows how these four field sectors show variations in intensity and position that seem to indicate that the system is expanding near perihelion and flexing (achieving a wider separation of sectors).

So, the theory goes that when the earth is in one of these field sectors, a warming of the atmosphere (especially the upper atmosphere) develops in some form of magnetic field interaction between the geomagnetic and surrounding solar system magnetic fields, and this helps to create surface weather pattern anomalies. The J-field system is not the only variable in the research model, but its energy rotation systems are by far the strongest.

It's really more about these rotating energy systems that might create interest for short-range forecasting. Most of the other research theory potentials are in long-range or climate modelling areas. Now, the energy rotations in the J-fields are apparently created at source and aimed in towards the Sun, at light speed, and in some sort of laser process because they are far stronger than you could expect using any sort of conventional gravitation or electro-magnetic physics. I've been watching these processes for quite a long time now and feel quite certain that they are real, as well as being the best possible evidence for the larger field structure (since otherwise, what could be transmitting the energy from Jupiter to the inner solar system). I should mention to forestall needless discussion that obviously I don't visualize heat transfer from planet to planet, these are entirely magnetic disturbances that operate within atmospheric systems that are themselves the actual cause of heat or energy systems.

Getting back to the periods of these energy systems, as some have apparently guessed, I am going to be relating events to the orbits of Jupiter's larger moons and also its Great Red Spot which is apparently a strong modulator of the magnetic field, as are the moons (you can find literature on this subject without the connection to earth's atmosphere, it has been discovered since the 1977-1981 space probes to Jupiter and Saturn that the two largest planets have powerful magnetic fields that are strongly modulated by their larger moons). The only thing I am adding to that is the space weather connection.

A lot of information here that I was hoping to work into the discussion more slowly with more examples of the systems on the table first, but whatever, I have plenty of time here. Don't get me wrong, I am under no illusions that these are very difficult processes to accept (perhaps not so difficult to visualize, this is not exactly the Higgs boson we are talking about). Seeing examples might help, especially if we take the future predictable energy peaks and see how they work out.

I will post separately in a few minutes what the periods and events are in this J-field system, but for now, would leave with this observation, the current J-field episode is likely to remain in place for most of the summer and then fade out in September-October, so we should be able to speculate about events well into August and then see how random or otherwise the results appear to be.

[Roger Smith]

There are two basic sets of high-energy J-field systems, but before describing these, you can find a visual display of J-moon system dynamics at this link:

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/objects/javascript/3307071.html#

(press on the red text for the display, can't link directly to it)

Now to visualize the general connection, the J-field energy rotates around the postulated warm ridge (often identified as a ring of fire by meteorologists) in the clockwise direction. Visualize the system as the Jupiter analogue being at the centre of rotation, inner elements having a shorter and closer loop and outer elements having longer and wider loops.

The orbital dynamics of the three large inner satellites, Io, Europa and Ganymede, are locked into an interesting pattern that prevents them from all being in the same orbital longitude together. Each set of two overtakes the other one extra time in a complex 437.6-day (approx) cycle that repeats. In each case, the "overtaking" point moves slowly back around the orbital cycles as seen from earth (or the Sun's perspective which is the more significant) so that, as you can test out with the diagram in the link, every 3.55 days, J-I (Io) overtakes J-II (Europa) slightly earlier in the orbital cycle. We will soon reach a point where this occurs in our line of sight (and shortly after that in the Jupiter-Sun line which is currently angled off slightly to the left of our perspective as we swing around in our orbit towards a late autumn opposition with Jupiter). What this means to the energy system is that the periodic J-II and J-I energy reinforcement takes place a little closer to the most energetic position, the top of the loop, and this position is moving coutner-clockwise against the motion of the energy rotations. To set it into a terrestrial framework, the mutual energy peaks are moving west while the components are rotating clockwise. So visualize a system of rotating energy that has a strong flare or peak every 3.55 days with an irregular westward drift. This drift is irregular because positions of other players in the complex system are distorting the simplicity of the J-field's location, and leading to a rather jumpy sort of progression that over a 2-3 month J-field episode will eventually show an eastward component as the entire system tends to move from west to east as we move through. All things considered, there are enough compensating features to provide the illusion of a steady-state system that tends to lock in a storm track and place severe weather in a predictable zone (and with reference to my summer forecast, the zone was reasonably well predicted).

These 3.55 day energy peaks come twice every 7.1 days which means that they tend to occur the same day of the week, at two opposite times of day, with a slow drift forward from the 0.1 day part of 7.1 days. This current week, the peaks were or will be around 22z Tuesday and 11z Saturday. If you run the diagram, you may notice that shadows of J-II then J-I cross Jupiter in advance of the moons -- this is because the sun-Jupiter line is currently angled off to the left of the diagram and so the shadows hit first. Since the theory postulates that the energy peaks are derived from Sun-Jupiter magnetic interactions, I use the heliocentric data rather than geocentric, although this leads to a maximum displacement of about 10-15 days of earth time at most, in the longer term energy cycles (on that 437.6-day cycle). Understand that these two weekly peaks in J-I/J-II energy will move slowly forward in the calendar of each week, as the events move slowly "backward" in the orbital cycles to reach the point of "mutual transit" in early August. So, for the rest of the summer, the peaks will be moving slowly through early Wednesdays (UT, Tuesday evenings CDT or EDT) and Saturdays into early Sundays (UT), taking until September to reach Thursdays and mid-August to reach Sundays.

The weather pattern correlation with these peaks involves a strong frontal wave with parallel bands (the old P and M fronts from a long time ago) of showery and usually thundery weather conditions on the northern edge of the ring of fire, usually. (J-III energy peaks tend to be larger low pressure areas situated well to the north of the area of interest of this forum, into the core of the jet stream). I don't claim that my research is anywhere near finished, as the locations of successive events can jump around considerably and I am still working on fully predictive systems. However, you may recall last Friday's derecho event from Ohio to Maryland, and now the next "Friday" component (really overnight Fri-Sat) appears to be the developing system over South Dakota that is progged to move into s MN, central WI and eventually w MI.

We could expect a whole series of these, moving more into daytime Saturdays as we move into later July and early August, and showing a gradual tendency to locate further east (Great Lakes, New England).

The other set (Tuesday 3rd, 22z ...) should become overnight peaks for much of late July then early to mid-day Wednesday peaks in August. Obviously peaks that occur between about 06z and 15z will be statistically less prolific severe storm producers as they interact with the diurnal energy cycle. The Friday into Saturday series is approaching this condition, while the Tuesday into Wednesday series is probably approaching its peak timing series relative to the diurnal.

Just in passing, I will note that there are also sets of J-II/J-III energy peaks and these rotate around every 437.6 days as well. As we've passed the mutual transit point for these last winter (hmm, northerly storm track forcer) the next opportunity to study a set of J-II/J-III energy peaks will occur in the spring of 2013. At present, J-III is at transit around early Mondays. There are series of J-I/J-III mutual transits that occur three times in the long cycle of 437.6 days and one of these shorter (145.9 days) cycles also peaks later this summer. So the overview of the J-moon "weekly planner" for this summer and this current J-field warming episode would look like this:

MON ... series of J-III transits, soon followed by J-I/J-III peaks

WED ... series of J-I/J-II energy peaks, moving gradually from early overnight towards afternoon hours by August

THURS ... J-III in eclipse (energy rotation westward below ridge),

SAT ... J-I/J-II ebergy peaks, moving gradually from morning hours to late evening then overnight into Sunday.

This, however, turned out to be only half the picture, as my research unfolded through the 1990s to establish these energy peaks.

As I tracked the energy peaks during severe weather (in particular when the J-fields are early-phase, centered ahead of the earth and the focus is on the central plains states), it became obvious that there were faster rotational systems closer to the centre of rotation. These often became tornadic when they passed the J-I energy whether it was peaking with J-II or on its own. I was able to establish that two of these "inner energy loops" were rotating with the same periods as moon J-V (just a touch under 12.0 hours) and Jupiter's surface feature, the Great Red Spot (GRS) which rotates with Jupiter in 9h 50 min (approx). These two have a mutual cycle of 2.45 days, and as three times 2.48 is 7.44, you can see that an inner loop energy peak occurs about 0.34 days later with respect to each successive J-I/J-II energy peak (in the alternating series), which means that a close timing overlap will not be repeated in that series for about eight events, or 56-57 days. So, with this late Friday early Saturday series, we are about to witness a rare quadruple energy peak, as the J-V energy will overtake the GRS energy at about 09z Saturday.

GRS transits can be found at this link:

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/objects/planets/3304091.html?page=1&c=y

Note, click on "initialize to today" to see current date's GRS transits. The transit in close proximity to the forthcoming major energy peak is listed for 0330z.

Meanwhile, the J-V transits of Jupiter (the energy for this only comes into any sort of visible focus when aligned with other elements) occur around 0230z and 1430z. These times will move earlier in the day at the rate of about five minutes a day.

Okay, a lot of information here, but the overview is as follows (consult the two links for visual or statistical evidence) ...

at about 0330z Sat, J-II in transit, J-V has moved past transit, GRS at transit, J-I approaching transit (this means GRS overtakes J-I earlier at about 0130z)

at about 0730z J-I in transit, J-V and GRS nearing overtake position

at about 0830z J-I close to overtaking J-II (at 11z) and GRS overtaking J-V

This sequence should lead to the following evolution of the complex four-part energy system:

J-II energy will move slowly east at about 45-46 N

J-I energy will gradually overtake along 43-44 N (N-S overtake around 06z, the system is aligned NNW-SSE in the magnetic field so geomagnetic overtake would be around 11z, predicted location central Lake Michigan)

J-V energy will flare after 02z around 42-43 N and show east then southeast motion

GRS energy possibly tornadic supercells will phase with each element above also close to 42N but this may expand rapidly southeast after 02z.

----------------------

My overall prediction from this would be that severe storms could move further south eventually than the current (last I saw anyway) SPC slight risk zone. The conventional meteorology would force the frontal wave largely east but these J-field dynamics could attempt to spin up a strong MCS. I have come to associate the MCS formation with the inner J-field energy peaks because these have the required rate of spin, the J-I/J-II energy peaks tend to be forced into more of a zonal evolution.

I'm sure people will want to see "proof" of all parts of this theory but I doubt that it will be possible to do much more than give an overview and some examples, proof I think probably requires working with the systems for a while and a leap of faith. I can't say that I would have accepted this theory either, all in one day.

This 2.48-day cycle of inner energy peaks implies a very gradual clockwise rotation of the orientation of the peak (at about 4 or 5 deg per successive overtake). The forthcoming peak for GRS and J-V at 0830z Saturday is at the eclipse position (the bottom of the loop in the atmospheric system). The next one around 20z Tuesday will occur slightly later in the loop than eclipse, but it will be near the end of the J-field passage in late August before these start to reach the most energetic point, at the top of their energy loops. The Monday (15h CDT) peak will coincide with the later stages of the J-I/J-III ebergy peak, so that one may also lead to severe weather, most likely to be moving ESE across central Ontario into northern NY and New England with the inner loop catching up during more of a southward moving phase of the larger energy loops. Sounds like a good set-up for almost a back-door type cold front into NYC.

I mentioned that it will be 56-57 days (35.5 actually) to the next overlap of the two energy systems with the Saturday series, so the next one to get this additional boost will occur on September 1st after the best aligned "heliocentric" mutual transit of J-I and J-II on August 11th, but the next overlap of the inner energy loop with the mid-week series will occur on the night of Tuesday July 31 into Wed August 1st. With this event, we also reach the point where geocentric transits are mutual (Io and Europa will be on the face of Jupiter together) although the heliocentric mutual transit comes on the 11th. Here's the agenda for the four-part energy peaks on August 1 and 11:

2316z Jul 31 ... GRS transit

0030z Aug 01 ... J-V transit

0300z Aug 01 ... J-I overtakes J-II

(this should lead to a very energetic severe weather event around 22z to 03z)

(note, the next in this series on August 8th around 04z also well aligned)

The best aligned event on August 11th is timed for 1630z mutual heliocentric transit of J-I and J-II, with the inner loops well out of phase.

The September 1st quadruple event has these timing parameters:

20z ... inner loops at mutual transit, J-I and J-II heliocentric alignment, with J-I then at transit 22z and J-II at transit 00z Sep 2.

This is a very close quadruple alignment near transit and so I hope that we are still in the J-field this late into the summer to see what might be the best aligned of all the J-field events (around 20z to 23z September 1st).

Okay, from now to then, I will confine my comments to daily (or several times weekly) brief notations on J-field activity as analyzed, and leave it to readers to speculate as to whether these are random occurrences, or structured events that have some capacity to be predicted.

An independent set of lunar-geomagnetic energy peaks may be referenced at times, this would always be focussed on "timing line one" so it helps to have the J-field systems close to timing line one (a curved line that runs approx DLH-MSN-IND-CAE) for best reinforcement of what may be observed as two independent energy systems.

(Pluto has nothing to do with it, sorry)

[Ed Lizard]

Ok, Jupiter has moons, and a red spot, I understand that, More about the actual "J Field" itself please. How Jupiter and its moons can cause a regional MCS episode, I can wait, I suppose.

[Ellinwood]

Show us the data, show us the graphs and show us the correlations. That would answer a lot of people's questions. I'm tired of this "here's some results, general ideas and descriptions of data but not the actual data itself" routine.

[Roger Smith]

I will post some maps during the summer as these series of events unfold. Then we can discuss the patterns and whether they show any possible cause and effect significance or if unbiased observers can see either randomness or alternate explanations. Since these severe weather outbreaks tend to strike in different locations as the field episode unfolds, it is not feasible to show data from one location as proof. The pattern is fairly obvious day to day, for example if you look at today's satellite imagery animation, you can easily find the J-III energy moving retrograde across the base of the postulated field, and I'm now watching the later energy peak developing over MN-WI. The faster moving "inner" loops often don't show up until near their peak, so would currently analyze the J-II energy near DLH and J-I energy over central MN. Sketching in the future arrival of inner energy loops, that currently places east-central WI and west-central MI in line for the early stages of an MCS event around 00z-03z and from rotation would suggest sw MI, n IN and nw ON into sw ON as the eventual target of the closing stages of the overnight MCS. Chicago may get some late tail-end activity from that.

Anyway, let me construct some maps from the observations made in July and August (I will post them in stages after a few events) and this should be plenty of illustration of the theory in action. I will work on three maps, one showing the major events every 3.5 days, one for the 2.5 day peaks, and one for the third set discussed above (J-I / J-III).

[Mallow]

I will post some maps during the summer as these series of events unfold. Then we can discuss the patterns and whether they show any possible cause and effect significance or if unbiased observers can see either randomness or alternate explanations. Since these severe weather outbreaks tend to strike in different locations as the field episode unfolds, it is not feasible to show data from one location as proof. The pattern is fairly obvious day to day, for example if you look at today's satellite imagery animation, you can easily find the J-III energy moving retrograde across the base of the postulated field, and I'm now watching the later energy peak developing over MN-WI. The faster moving "inner" loops often don't show up until near their peak, so would currently analyze the J-II energy near DLH and J-I energy over central MN. Sketching in the future arrival of inner energy loops, that currently places east-central WI and west-central MI in line for the early stages of an MCS event around 00z-03z and from rotation would suggest sw MI, n IN and nw ON into sw ON as the eventual target of the closing stages of the overnight MCS. Chicago may get some late tail-end activity from that.

Anyway, let me construct some maps from the observations made in July and August (I will post them in stages after a few events) and this should be plenty of illustration of the theory in action. I will work on three maps, one showing the major events every 3.5 days, one for the 2.5 day peaks, and one for the third set discussed above (J-I / J-III).

You're going to have to use a more statistical approach to pique my interest. Just saying "this astronomical event occurred here and then we had this event" isn't enough. You need to show that there is a statistically sigificant difference between "events" and "non-events". A few 'examples' isn't anywhere near sufficient.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

You guys are awefully hard on Roger, I would at least give him a chance to provide some information on the process. It might not be exactly all the proof you are looking for, but this is how research starts out. I for one am pretty excited to at least hearing something new, and who knows, maybe there is some correlation to all of this.

[Roger Smith]

No worries, not feeling much hardship. But the event developing at present is looking very interesting now, there seems to be a slow breakdown of CIN and I see the J-I energy beginning to reach borderline severe levels (with 7-9 hours to go before event peak) on the MN-WI border. For this event to make it to a full-blown MCS there will need to be rapid development around 02z in the "inner loops" which have been showing some point convection in the past two hours while still out of phase with the main event.

Clearly this one is fighting against a very hot and dry environment but with all this latent energy available, it could become explosive. Target still appears to be central WI to southern MI.

[OSUmetstud]

his forecast busted anyway...

[DoctorMu]

Jupiter's magnetosphere is about 7 million miles in diameter. Impressive, but obviously not a factor on the Earth's weather.

Khurana, K.K.; Kivelson, M.G. et al. (2004). "The configuration of Jupiter's magnetosphere". In Bagenal, F.; Dowling, T.E.;

"The interior of Jupiter is the seat of a strong dynamo that produces a surface magnetic field in the equatorial re- gion with an intensity of ∼ 4 Gauss. This strong magnetic field and Jupiter’s fast rotation (rotation period ∼ 9 h 55 min) create a unique magnetosphere in the solar system which is known for its immense size (average subsolar mag- netopause distance 45-100 RJ where 1 RJ = 71492 km is the radius of Jupiter) and fast rotation (see Figure 24.1 for a schematic of Jupiter’s magnetosphere). Jupiter’s magne- tosphere differs from most other magnetospheres in the fact that it derives much of its plasma internally from Jupiter’s moon Io."

[cooling climate]

I will post some research-driven severe weather outlooks in this thread during the heat wave situation (which the research helped to predict, see long-range forecast thread).

Without going into a lot of detail at first (maybe after the summer) this research looks at interactions between the Sun and Jupiter, and how this affects the earth's upper atmosphere when we're in the way (sometimes these interactions take place in sectors of the solar system not occupied at that time by the Earth).

As a first approximation, and details will be added once we get through the summer and the forecasts, the "ring of fire" phenomenon is a predictable consequence of the earth being in position to interact with the "J-field" system which occupies about 20% of the inner solar system at any time. The energy packets in the ring of fire correspond to disturbances generated at Jupiter's intense magnetic field and transmitted inwards by what appears to be a laser-like phenomenon that operates much, much more focused in energy than conventional gravitation or even electro-magnetism might suggest. The energy rotates counter-clockwise and peaks at predictable times for reasons that I will outline after the summer. But there are cycles in this, notably, 3.55 days, 7.1 days, and 2.6 days.

The first forecast to be published here is for the overnight period Friday July 6 to Saturday July 7.

A major energy peak occurs at 03z on Saturday 7th. This should activate a strong meso-scale type event and most likely will focus in on the wave moving across the plains states towards the Lake Michigan region. My preliminary assessment is that a strong frontal wave will evolve into a powerful MCS around DBQ-RFD affecting parts of eastern IA, southeast MN, southern WI and northern IL. As this thread moves forward, I will list some times and approximate locations for future and even "over-the-horizon" events but want to underline that the main intention here is to explain rather than predict -- prediction requires a full understanding of the second-order variations in an already approximately-positioned variable (the J-field) and so it's the timing that is of more interest. In any case, the main application of this research would be to short-term severe weather forecasting.

The bottom line on this first prediction is, watch out northern IL for the effects of this MCS as it rotates southeast across Chicagoland.

Would appreciate if we can time discussion so that for the summer of 2012 it's mostly about predictions and then in the autumn we could get into the theory as I am able to refine the explanation and parameters.

I think this definitely belongs in the twilight zone category. I was going to say science fiction

category but any reference what so ever to science would be totally wrong.

I do not mean to offend if I did I would have said this is total bulls--t.

[Roger Smith]

I guess the questions that researchers would need to ask and answer might include these:

Are there rotating sectors in the solar system magnetic field, and are some of them apparently modulated by Jupiter?

If yes (which I think my temperature analysis demonstrates) then are these sectors capable of transmitting signals from Jupiter's (agreed) strong magnetic field inward towards the Sun?

If so, what happens when the earth is in the way?

Following is a sketch map of the energy loops as observed over a number of past occasions with earth in a postulated J-field sector.

The dashed black line running west to east is the postulated path in our atmosphere of this system, it is not postulated that the system remains stationary as shown. This is approximately the position observed over the past ten days.

I will drop in some maps of observed positions of J-field events as the summer progresses.

Some of the predictive framework has already been mentioned above, there are going to be a series of J-I/J-II mutual transits over the next two months. The energy loops all work the same way, energy is expected near the top of the loop (in this map example, where the loops cross "timing line one") at the time of heliocentric transit at Jupiter, and the energy then rotates around the loop clockwise, with a retrograde motion observable near "eclipse" ... note the loops are each identified by I, II, III, IV, V and GRS to identify the various components. The IV loop takes quite a wide swing to the north off this grid at transit (reaching 60-65 N lat).

Although the forward motion of the entire rotating system is generally prograde there are times when the system shifts back to the west slightly then resumes forward motion. This is being investigated, and possible reasons would include second-order variations caused by the Moon's orbital position, oscillations caused at Jupiter, or quasi-random shuddering effects in space of the field sector.

Next "inner loop" energy peak is timed for 2025z today. Will post an analysis plus a post-mortem on the Saturday July 7th (early) 03-09z peak which turned out weak but in the expected location in n-c WI.

Hoping this map will now upload and appear here.

[OSUmetstud]

Is there anywhere I can find current conditions for Jupiters magnetic field?

Also I believe that HM has posted that high solar activity and more particles actually decrease trospheric instability. Why would energy emmissions from Jupiter that reach our atmosphere result in the opposite?

[Sunny and Warm]

I googled "effect of Jupiter's magnetic field on the Sun".

I got only this:

http://wattsupwithth...-cycles-linked/

first strike: WUWT champions the idea.

second strike: Nicola Scafetta wrote the article.

WUWT certainly does NOT champion planetary effects on the sun. Quite the opposite actually. They do allow opposing views to be posted, but Anthony Watts has a low tolerance for any of the planetary theories. If you can find where he does, I'd be happy to rescind what I've just said.

[WxUSAF]

This is kooky talk in terms of space physics, planetary science and meteorology. Even if there was a timing coincidence between something relating to Jupiter and weather phenomenon, that does not imply causation. Far from it. As far as I can tell, there is no timing coincidence anyway, so probably we should stop there. Trying to make pseudo-astrology sound "science-y" by throwing out science-like words and terminology does not lend any credence to batsh-t crazy ideas.

[Brian5671]

bust on the mcs

[Ed Lizard]

I'm still waiting for credible links about 'The J-Field" and its measurement and prediction. I can wait on how a field from a large but distant planet can cause severe weather in a regionally specific region.