Hoosier Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Although it is still several days out, I have seen enough signals and consistency in the modeling to start this thread. Nearly all models are on board with an expanding heat dome as we head into next week. By the end of the week, an 850 mb thermal ridge may send 850 mb temps soaring into the mid/upper 20C range across a large chunk of the area. Recent runs of the ECMWF are the most ominous/impressive and would suggest possible record breaking heat on the 28th and/or 29th. After this the pattern continues to look warm to hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 IND is on board. Point and click for LAF has 97 for Thursday and 95 for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow. EDIT: Woops, cutoff the C temps, but the first level of purple is 28°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow. EDIT: Woops, cutoff the C temps, but the first level of purple is 28°C. Those must be 850mb's? So far I have low 90s forecast. Will be interesting to see how (or if) this tropical system interacts with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Euro has surface temps above 110 in northeast Nebraska Wednesday and above 100 pretty much everywhere Thursday with Chicago even above 104. I sure hope it doesn't get that hot on top of the dryness. I'm pretty sure Cedar Rapids' last 100 degree temp was 1995. Before that it was probably during the late 80s drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Those must be 850mb's? So far I have low 90s forecast. Will be interesting to see how (or if) this tropical system interacts with the pattern. Likely wouldn't dampen the heat, if anything subsidence to the north would increase and heating could be even a bit more amplified. Biggest impact would likely be to cut off any moisture flow from the Gulf, which would be a saving grace with temps in the 100s. 12z Euro has dew pts 55-60 Thursday afternoon over nrn IL. As was mentioned earlier on the general thread, dews during the 95 heat wave were 75-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 2m Euro temps have me 104-111 on Thurs afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Likely wouldn't dampen the heat, if anything subsidence to the north would increase and heating could be even a bit more amplified. Biggest impact would likely be to cut off any moisture flow from the Gulf, which would be a saving grace with temps in the 100s. 12z Euro has dew pts 55-60 Thursday afternoon over nrn IL. As was mentioned earlier on the general thread, dews during the 95 heat wave were 75-80. Exactly what I was typing up to say (regarding subsidence) ... in my opinion (and I think climatology would lend some support), this is a more likely scenario than some of the earlier GGEM runs showing a Louisiana or mid-Texas landfall and remnants tracking due north to the Midwest. Another thing to consider ... if GoM moisture is "choked off," the fact that less moist air parcels have lower heat capacities can, in itself, lead to higher temperatures. Indeed, that is why drought does what it does to temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 DVN just bumped up temps a few notches for Thursday for their zones. Now in the 96-97 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 LOT bumped temps up across the CWA to the 97-99F range for Thurs. AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF SUMMER HEAT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THURSDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO TOP THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY TRANSPORT VERY HOT AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 850 TEMPS ARE AS WARM AS 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY. I HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD STILL BE TOO COOL...AS TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 My point for Wed-Fri. has bumped up to: 89, 95, 90. I'll take one really hot day over several very warm/hot days. Edit: I see on the EURO a front drops south and give parts of the lower lakes some clouds and may even some showers on Friday. Looks like highs in the 80s from what I can tell around here. Then Saturday it's back into the upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wednesday is sort of a sleeper day. Could be very warm depending on how fast the ridge builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I know the signal is strong but can't remember TWC with 102 for here 5 days out, which they currently have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 I know the signal is strong but can't remember TWC with 102 for here 5 days out, which they currently have. Wow. Looking at some maps from previous well-known hot spells, what's being progged by the model consensus is right up there. Given the dry soils across much of the area, there is the potential for something pretty extraordinary if recent runs hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 saw this from someone on Twitter for Franklin Park, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Numbers to beat in Indiana for the June 28-30th period. June 28th Evansville: 102º in 1936 Fort Wayne: 102º in 1934 Indianapolis: 101º in 1934 South Bend: 103º in 1934 June 29th Evansville: 103º in 1936 and 1952 Fort Wayne: 99º in 1952 Indianapolis: 100º in 1934 South Bend: 102º in 1934 June 30th Evansville: 100º in 1933 and 1952 Fort Wayne: 99º in 1953 Indianapolis: 97º in 1913 and 1933 South Bend: 97º in 1913 All time highest temperature in June Evansville: 104º on June 26, 1954 Fort Wayne: 106º on June 25, 1988 Indianapolis: 102º on June 25, 1988 and June 26, 1954 South Bend: 106º on June 1, 1934 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 saw this from someone on Twitter for Franklin Park, IL lol, just put Franklin Park into my iphone (as shown above), just to see. Sure enough...106º on Thursday. Much tamer for Chicago and Kankakee with both at 100º, and a relatively cool 97º for LAF. Not that we'll know, but I'll take the under on that 106º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Been a long time since i've seen such a detailed AFD from ILN. Long term section is the most detailed concerning the heat and possible (can't believe i'm saying this) 100 degree temps. They have me at 98 on thursday and 97 Friday at this point. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HAVE GONE WITH A ECMWF/HPC BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY IN TERMS OF LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS AN UPR LVL RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VLY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AS WAA COMMENCES ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 80S. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ECMWF CONTINUES TO PIVOT UPR LVL RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE IS INTERESTING. IT PUMPS HOT AIR EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION WITH FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 24 C TO 27 C RANGE. GRANTED THE ECMWF TYPICALLY HAS A WARM BIAS WITH THESE VALUES BUT IT SEEMS TO BE GIVING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HOT WEATHER. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE FLIRTING CLOSED TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME BACKGROUND INFORMATION IS NEEDED ON THIS. BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH...THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE NECESSARY TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK ACRS THE CWFA: 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 23 C...SOUTHWEST TO WEST SFC FLOW OF AT LEAST 10 KNOTS...AND 850 MB FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. ANOTHER IMPORTANT INGREDIENT THAT WEIGHS INTO THE EQUATION IS THE SOIL MOISTURE. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT A SIZABLE DROUGHT AREA HAS BEEN GROWING ACRS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN CWFA. WITH A DRY SOIL...ENERGY IS NOT EXPENDED ON EVAPORATING MOISTURE...AND THE AIR NEAR THE SFC IS EASILY HEATED MORE. SO...BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...WILL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES UPWARD. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE FOLLOWING REASONS: TIME FRAME AS TO WHICH THIS IS TO OCCUR (FACTORING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY)...100 DEGREE HEAT AT KCVG...KDAY...AND KCMH IS REMARKABLY UNCOMMON GIVEN 100 PLUS YEARS OF CLIMATE DATA...AND THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE AT KCVG...KCMH...AND KDAY ARE 102 DEGREES. RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 100S. THE LAST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT THE BIG THREE ARE: KCVG...SEPTEMBER 2011...KCMH...JULY 1999 AND KDAY...AUGUST 1988. THE ECMWF MAY BE FORECASTING AN EXTREME EVENT...SO SOME CAUTION WILL BE EMPLOYED AT THIS JUNCTURE. DEWPOINTS IN A SOUTHWEST/WEST SFC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE ONLY NEAR THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR 100. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPR LVL RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I was looking at the EURO for Friday and I noticed a front drops in from the north into the northern suburbs of Chicago and kind of sits there during the day. Some moisture returns coming off it too. If that's the solution then there could be quite a contrast in temperatures from north to south across the area. Right now it looks like one really hot day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 This is pretty amazing (large area of 30C). I remember the NAM doing something like this in the past and not quite panning out so it will be interesting to watch the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Here was the 12z ECMWF...Only because of how unusual it is. It's been consistent run after run, so it will be interesting to see if that continues and if it's correct in the end. If it is, it deserves every bit of credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I think people need to exercise a little caution with the extreme model solutions. Been there done that many times, haven't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 I think people need to exercise a little caution with the extreme model solutions. Been there done that many times, haven't we? You know you want to get on board with big heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 I wish I could see Euro soundings but it must have decent mixing to be spitting out 2m temps like that. Mixing 28C from 850 mb to the surface would result in mid to upper 100's which is basically what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You know you want to get on board with big heat. It's obviously going to be wicked hot, but it's like GHD all over again. Widespread 30"+ amounts : widespread 105º+ temperatures. It's kinda silly really. Models always seem to go overboard with progs in situations like this...but we'll see. You know me, I hate heat with a freaking passion. That being said, I'm also interested in seeing how high we go. Should be "fun". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 It's obviously going to be wicked hot, but it's like GHD all over again. Widespread 30"+ amounts : widespread 105º+ temperatures. It's kinda silly really. Models always seem to go overboard with progs in situations like this...but we'll see. You know me, I hate heat with a freaking passion. That being said, I'm also interested in seeing how high we go. Should be "fun". I agree that caution is warranted at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Anyways, 12z MEX is the lolz. 91º for Thursday and 89º for Friday for LAF. Climo be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I agree that caution is warranted at this range. Well I'm just saying. But the Euro is fascinating. Doubtful it verifies verbatim, but fascinating nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 850mb temps sometimes do have a tendency to ratchet back a bit as we get closer to the event, so we'll just have to see how things go. Seeing the NAM join the party with the extreme 850 temps though is pretty encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well I'm just saying. But the Euro is fascinating. Doubtful it verifies verbatim, but fascinating nonetheless. Even knocking a few degrees off of the Euro would still make it a pretty impressive event by late June standards, which is still a little before the typical peak heat. I just noticed that 106 in South Bend on June 1. That is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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