Drought in Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley

[B-Rent]

I wonder what we looked like in 1988. Either the drought monitor maps weren't done then or they are not available online. Can look at the Palmer stuff though.

The DM started in 2000 I believe. I've seen a few references to the "12 year history" of the drought monitor this summer.

[LizardMafia]

Yeah, it was on Indy tv. I read somewhere else, but I cant find it now, that the soil is drying out up to 4' sub surface. We had a crap ton of rain here today radar estimate is only about 1/2 though.. Looked like there is quite a bit of runoff though, my street was flooded. I hope it didn't come down too fast to be of real benefit.

Lebanon right in the middle of the dry slot, just like during the winter..

[Hoosier]

Digging into the stats a bit more, the 53.61% of Indiana in D3/D4 is by far the highest since the drought monitor started.  Before this year, the previous high was 20.27%.

[snowstormcanuck]

Never seen a drought like this in my 25 years. Sitting on 0.11" for the month, and just 0.51" since June 13th. 11.41" since Jan 1st. All the grass is dead. Not endemic, but a few maples and lindens have turned partially yellow/brown. Fall foliage is going to suck this year.

Only upside I can think of is that the last truly dry summer (2007) lead into the winter of 2007-08. Unfortunately the ENSO state will be completely different, so I'm definitely not betting the farm on that.

[Chicago WX]

Never seen a drought like this in my 25 years. Sitting on 0.11" for the month, and just 0.51" since June 13th. 11.41" since Jan 1st. All the grass is dead. Not endemic, but a few maples and lindens have turned partially yellow/brown. Fall foliage is going to suck this year.

Only upside I can think of is that the last truly dry summer (2007) lead into the winter of 2007-08. Unfortunately the ENSO state will be completely different, so I'm definitely not betting the farm on that.

What's up Mike? Hope things are well. And yep, this drought blows.

[Chicago WX]

Oh and 0.70" of rainfall at LAF with this evening's storms, though I think some rain was missed/not recorded with this morning's storms. Regardless, most rainfall in a calendar day there since May 7 (0.76").

[Geos]

Almost 2-3" of rain last night along the border region of IL & WI will likely knock the drought status back to high end D1 and low end D2. Lots of things greening up today. Too bad it was too late for the corn already.

[Chicago WX]

Even in droughts, daily precipitation records can be broken.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

0441 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT SOUTH BEND...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.06 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT SOUTH BEND TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.04 SET IN 1896.

[WxMidwest]

Geos, that may be a little steep, 2-3 inches of rain followed by the next heat wave(temps likely in the 100's next week) without much rain in the future will keep thing at least High end 2 or higher. Also, the Wis/ILL Line us still on the boundary of a Extreme Drought classification. It's awesome stuff is greening up, but all this H20 in the ground is gonna be gone in a few weeks. I suppose I'm more pessimistic about it.

About the drought:

Some good news in yesterday, the GWO Stage moved into Stage 2, but,it's not a trend yet. If it continues, we will see more precipitation then we have had recently. The La Nina Atmospheric Base State in Stage 1 (+/- 0.5) or on the txt file below (5-15) is the worst position that correlates to a ridge over the center of CONUS in Summer. Getting to 20 or higher consistently will be the key to eventually getting to Stage 3. Stage 3 is the EL Nino ATM Base State which has yet to be expressed in the Mid Lattitudes or higher. We can't say the same for the tropics, Nino Region 1 & 2 are shearing the Atlantic Basins Now & Helping the EPAC. This is why we have seen little development this July in the GOM. On another note, the Saharan Air Layer is well entrenched around the Cape Verde area, supressing that end of the ATL basin as well. Basically we have a La Nina Atmospheric Circulation Feature not in sync with the building Oceanic El Nino State.

Once it associates, the pattern will change for the good around here. The MJO is forecasted, (1st time in a long time) to move into octants 3 & 4, which is also away from the La Ninaesque octants of 8-1-2 which it has be hovering/circulating in as of late. The only bad thing about the EL Nino pattern, if it becomes a classified Moderate EL Nino or higher via the ONI. Is that winter over the Plains/Midwest could get overwhelmed with Pacific Jet Warm air, with less snowfall/precip. This is why ,probablity wise, I want to see a Weak El Nino or a displaced El Nino Modoki so we can actually get a decent mix of Cold Air and Moisture this winter to help snowpack alleviate the drought conditions come Spring.

Note: These things actually have to happen for things to get better.

JULY GWO Numbers

---------------------STAGE

------------------------XX

349 2012 7 1 -1.89 0.17 10 2.5 1.9

350 2012 7 2 -1.85 0.50 10 2.5 1.9

351 2012 7 3 -1.78 0.46 10 2.5 1.8

352 2012 7 4 -1.74 -0.08 10 2.5 1.7

353 2012 7 5 -1.78 0.14 10 2.5 1.8

354 2012 7 6 -1.68 1.31 15 3.5 2.1

355 2012 7 7 -1.44 2.44 15 3.5 2.8

356 2012 7 8 -1.09 2.42 15 3.5 2.7

357 2012 7 9 -0.86 1.28 15 3.5 1.5

358 2012 7 10 -0.75 0.83 15 3.5 1.1

359 2012 7 11 -0.68 -0.71 5 1.5 1.0

360 2012 7 12 -0.90 -1.63 5 1.5 1.9

361 2012 7 13 -1.01 0.06 10 2.5 1.0

362 2012 7 14 -0.91 1.07 15 3.5 1.4

363 2012 7 15 -0.78 0.63 15 3.5 1.0

364 2012 7 16 -0.74 0.53 15 3.5 0.9

365 2012 7 17 -0.63 1.19 15 3.5 1.3

366 2012 7 18 -0.46 1.21 20 4.5 1.3 <---------------

[knitwx]

Some parts of northern Starke county Indiana near Koontz Lake picked up 4" of rain.

[snowstormcanuck]

What's up Mike? Hope things are well. And yep, this drought blows.

Waiting patiently for winter Tim.

~3.5 weeks the daily average temps start to decrease.

[Chicago WX]

0.40" in the last 24 hours at IND, which puts them close to the record for the driest July on record...set all the way back in 2011. 80% chance of storms/rain today, so that may take care of that matter.

0.40" in 2012 (through this morning)

0.47" in 2011

0.49" in 1914

0.55" in 1997

0.67" in 1936

0.82" in 1881

And this one is toast as expected earlier today. 0.28" additional this evening puts this July into 5th place for Indianapolis.

[Chicago WX]

Waiting patiently for winter Tim.

~3.5 weeks the daily average temps start to decrease.

Looking forward to it my friend.

[bowtie`]

Oh and 0.70" of rainfall at LAF with this evening's storms, though I think some rain was missed/not recorded with this morning's storms. Regardless, most rainfall in a calendar day there since May 7 (0.76").

Must be nice. Only 0.02 in my tippy bucket. I could see it pouring just to my north. Just barely got enough to make the pavement wet and that was it here. Still in the dry slot. Even Indy got ten times the amount I got.

[Geos]

- WxMidwest. Yeah maybe not D1 quite yet, but D2 for sure in this area on the next update. I'm hoping the soil moisture will keep temperatures in the low to mid 90s this go around next week. The moisture goes deep in the ground here. A weak El Nino would be very welcome. Moisture is usually generous during weak El Niño's.

This was encouraging to see on the CPC update for the GL's.

[wxman1952]

What a difference a few miles makes. Last night I recieved .27" while 3 miles east of me only got .07". About 15 miles NE of me another recording place got 1.68"

[daddylonglegs]

Drove north of here about 50 miles today...the cornfields along the way look horrible. Some were almost completely brown. In a few areas some crops did look good so either they got hit by stray showers/,more rain when it did rain or maybe soil types were different in those spots...but that was rare.

On my brother's land..the corn looked good, but it was just forming ears..going to need some rain soon...soil was rock hard.

[QVectorman]

My sister is an agronomist for a crop company in Michigan and said the areas that didn't see any rain have about 2 weeks before the corn crop will be entirely wiped out. Or basically if it doesn't rain before it tassels (2 weeks away). She said it's already a given that the yields are going to be drastically impeded with corn that has survived thus far. But that many farmers have already lost their corn in SE Michigan.

Colleagues in Indiana told her that most of the state's corn has already tasseled and they have unofficially lost most of their corn crop.

Soy beans aren't great, they have aborted flowering for now which dictates the amount of beans each plant will produce but say they have a chance to bounce back to 100% if the region gets decent rain by early/mid August.

Things are not looking good for the top 3 producing states of corn and soybeans. If they don't get a decent soaking of rains in the next two weeks (since the crops across the midwest are almost all at the same development stage for the most part) the U.S. could lose most of it's corn and soybean crop. That means huge price hikes at the grocery store and probably the pump...ethanol.

At that point if the drought gets worse it's impact will be on paper with the indices and not much else. The damage and monetary toll will have been done. About the only thing that will still matter to most people is if their lawn is brown or not.

[QVectorman]

Drove north of here about 50 miles today...the cornfields along the way look horrible. Some were almost completely brown. In a few areas some crops did look good so either they got hit by stray showers/,more rain when it did rain or maybe soil types were different in those spots...but that was rare.

On my brother's land..the corn looked good, but it was just forming ears..going to need some rain soon...soil was rock hard.

Adding to that last part my sister also mentioned that the number of kernel rows per ear have been greatly reduced since the kernel rows developed several weeks ago while it was extremely hot and dry. Unfortunately as a result even though the ears are forming and even if they did get plenty of rain those plants are going to yield less corn than normal no matter what.

[SpartyOn]

The picture on the front of today's NY Times is worth a thousand words.

[LizardMafia]

Must be nice. Only 0.02 in my tippy bucket. I could see it pouring just to my north. Just barely got enough to make the pavement wet and that was it here. Still in the dry slot. Even Indy got ten times the amount I got.

Yeah, definitely have a screw zone for the rain over Boone county..

[Chicago WX]

For the time being, due to the recent heavier rains in northern Indiana, FWA and SBN are sitting with positive departures for the month of July through yesterday. Actually, SBN is guaranteed to finish above normal for July, even if it doesn't rain another drop the rest of the month (normal July rainfall is 4.00"). Alas, only a statistical anomaly.

FWA: 2.69" +0.06"

SBN: 4.31" +1.92"

And for the heck of it, total precipitation/departure to date for SBN from June 1 through July 19: 5.85" -0.33"

[B-Rent]

For the time being, due to the recent heavier rains in northern Indiana, FWA and SBN are sitting with positive departures for the month of July through yesterday. Actually, SBN is guaranteed to finish above normal for July, even if it doesn't rain another drop the rest of the month (normal July rainfall is 4.00"). Alas, only a statistical anomaly.

FWA: 2.69" +0.06"

SBN: 4.31" +1.92"

And for the heck of it, total precipitation/departure to date for SBN from June 1 through July 19: 5.85" -0.33"

I don't know anything about hydrology at all, how does a heavy 2"/hr rain counteract drought conditions? Does the hardness of the ground, increase run-off? Serious questions here.

[Brewers]

[wxman1952]

Interesting map. In Saginaw County, MI, that "blue" area that seemed to have missed the rain, just to the SW of Saginaw Bay; well I am there lol. Crappy hole I seemed to have been missing the rain this summer compaired to other locals. Oh well.

[Geos]

I don't know anything about hydrology at all, how does a heavy 2"/hr rain counteract drought conditions? Does the hardness of the ground, increase run-off? Serious questions here.

I've had hydrology/hydrogeology classes! I can say a lot about this topic.

A steady rain light to moderate is the best. Two inches that comes in one thunderstorm downpour isn't the greatest when it comes to the water having enough time to percolate down to the maximum depth possible. When the ground has been hard for awhile, water will runoff more than it would if the top soil was already moist.

A lot has to do with the soil type also. There won't be as much runoff on a sandy soil vs. a heavy clay soil. Somewhat clayey soil and loamy soil are good moisture holders. The smaller the pore spaces between the soil particles, the more water will stay in the soil for a longer period of time. Sandy soils drain well, but they are poor soils for most plants to grow on. A heavy clay soil is not the best either because the soil particles are packed so tightly that not much water will be able to reside there. A loamy soil, which is roughly 40% sand, 20% clay, and 40% silt is great ideal for moisture and plants.

Humus (black top soil) is another thing entirely. If it is left to develop undisturbed, a 2"/hr rain would be largely absorbed by it, but in areas where it has been compacted by development - it might as well be a clay soil. The more vegetation you have on the surface the slower the water will be at running off if the top soil is dry. The roots also act to keep the soil from clumping together and leaving pores spaces open.

A nice light to moderate rain before a heavy rain would set up a good situation for getting moisture into the ground. A nice gentle rain would slowly saturate the top soil and open up the pores and break up the dried soil peds - allowing the ground to accept a heavy rain more easily.

The ground was somewhat hard before the Wednesday night rain here. The rain came down hard at first, but became more moderate as the night went on. By the time the next heavy rain round came at 3am in the morning, the soil would have been loosened up quite a bit. My sump pump turned on after about 30 minutes of heavy rain, so I know the moisture was getting down into the soil at least 8 feet. There was a moderate rain on the Friday before, which helped in softening (breaking the soil peds apart) the soil up a bit.

That's the long, more scientific type answer! So in short, yes a any dry soil would increase run off than a moist soil, but the degree of runoff would be determined by soil type, whether it has been disturbed, and the rain intensity vs. the duration of the rainfall event. And also, by how much a given area of land is vegetated.

[SpartyOn]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/food-inflation-fears-grow-as-corn-jumps-to-record-2012-07-20

[Geos]

This looks like some drought relief if it plays out according to the GFS.

[Brewers]

NAM has the heavier rain farther south. Either way much of this area should get a good soaking.

[SpartyOn]

Allot of what Ive read has signaled that much of the corn crop has been destroyed and even if rain comes its almost a little too late. We now need to shift attention to the soy beans.