Scott747 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 http://www.nrlmry.na...rovap&TYPE=ssmi WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 -- A. 22/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 22/1600Z D. 23.0N 89.0W E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Convection going crazy over the Yucatan channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z Euro...day 4....*tingles* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z Euro looks like it's heading for a TX area landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z Euro looks like it's heading for a TX area landfall. Yeah, it looks like it is missing the trough...day 5...inbetween the CMC and Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Too early to tell yet. The system will be drifting very slowly for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Too early to tell yet. The system will be drifting very slowly for a while. And also who knows where the center is gonna form along the low pressure trough, or how long that'll take if it happens at all. With that sort of convection over the water I'd give it a better shot than not at forming a real circulation in the next 24 hours, but that's just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 This is gonna be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Looks like it's gonna be a TX/MX deal in this run....moving WSW similar to the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Looks like it's gonna be a TX/MX deal in this run....moving WSW similar to the CMC To bad it's mid June. Track is similar to a certain storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Looks like it's gonna be a TX/MX deal in this run....moving WSW similar to the CMC Throw it out, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 GOM SlopGyre™ 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 To bad it's mid June. Track is similar to a certain storm... There goes my productivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Going for Corpus to Port Lavaca at day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 12, 219N, 890W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 24, 221N, 892W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 36, 224N, 892W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 48, 231N, 892W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 60, 235N, 890W, 51, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 72, 237N, 889W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 84, 235N, 886W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 96, 234N, 888W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 108, 234N, 892W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 120, 234N, 897W, 60, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 There goes my productivity Ha. It could only be a few cats off in strength and still be a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The 12z ECMWF is just illustrating the difficulty most of the models are having in identifying where 96L is going to go. The overall broad circulation will probably remain quasi-stationary for the next 3-5 days, but its where the vorticity starts to become focused on the eastern flank of the circulation that will likely dictate the ultimate track. At this point, the biggest threat from this system looks to be the continuation of heavy rainfall across Florida and the Yucatan as moisture streams in from the south riding the low-level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I don't trust any of the models just yet. The timing of the movement and intensity of this system with things going on all around it will be the key to where it goes. There's gotta be a huge margin of error 5-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I wonder how the slow movement will effect the upwelling of cooler water in the Gulf. Plenty warm right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 To bad it's mid June. Track is similar to a certain storm... Hepburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 My advice before getting model "huggie" is to wait for a coc to develop.....but then again, I don't listen to my own advice....HEADS UP S. TX!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I love it when the models start windshield-wiping. I'd like to add to phil's point above that the timing/strength of the trough is really the big key as to how this shapes up. How the models portray this in each run will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 SHIPS has some very dry air affecting 96L by D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The Gulf couldn't be more primed, healthy loop current and a huge warm gyre in the western GOMEX that split off from the loop current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 SHIPS has some very dry air affecting 96L by D5. Though is way off the Euro/CMC/UKMET track by then... it's based in the BAMM track if there's no official NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 HPC: MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Strong ULH developing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Not really any consensus If you take out the CLP and XTRP, there's some...but this are the ****ty models anyway...other than the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Not really any consensus That's not particularly the most informative graphic at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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