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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby


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http://www.nrlmry.na...rovap&TYPE=ssmi

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --

A. 22/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 22/1600Z

D. 23.0N 89.0W

E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION

AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W

20120621.1440.f18.x.geovis.96LINVEST.20kts-NAmb-217N-890W.74pc.jpg

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Too early to tell yet. The system will be drifting very slowly for a while.

And also who knows where the center is gonna form along the low pressure trough, or how long that'll take if it happens at all. With that sort of convection over the water I'd give it a better shot than not at forming a real circulation in the next 24 hours, but that's just my guess.

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AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 12, 219N, 890W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 24, 221N, 892W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 36, 224N, 892W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 48, 231N, 892W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 60, 235N, 890W, 51, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 72, 237N, 889W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 84, 235N, 886W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 96, 234N, 888W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 108, 234N, 892W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 96, 2012062118, 03, SHIP, 120, 234N, 897W, 60, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

20120621.1553.ascat.ASCAT_VIS.wind.96LINVEST.934_022pc_20kts-1008mb_217N_890W_sft20120621_1800.jpg

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The 12z ECMWF is just illustrating the difficulty most of the models are having in identifying where 96L is going to go. The overall broad circulation will probably remain quasi-stationary for the next 3-5 days, but its where the vorticity starts to become focused on the eastern flank of the circulation that will likely dictate the ultimate track. At this point, the biggest threat from this system looks to be the continuation of heavy rainfall across Florida and the Yucatan as moisture streams in from the south riding the low-level flow.

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HPC:

MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING

THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE

12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION

BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z

ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS

SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF

THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS

FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK

TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS

ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS

HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR

NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO

MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z ECMWF/12Z

CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH

THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST

STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT

RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO

PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE

CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK

SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE

TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR

CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

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