Ian Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 We might start getting some pop ups as early as tomorrow mainly in elevated areas. Then the front on Friday should bring at least a DC split. Monday is tricky but there is potential if it comes together right. For now it seems that would be hard to do with the way the trough tries to drop in ... the 18z GFS shows something close to the "ideal" scenario if you want storms. Worth watching I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 We might start getting some pop ups as early as tomorrow mainly in elevated areas. Then the front on Friday should bring at least a DC split. Monday is tricky but there is potential if it comes together right. For now it seems that would be hard to do with the way the trough tries to drop in ... the 18z GFS shows something close to the "ideal" scenario if you want storms. Worth watching I suppose. the 18z GFS was crazy...i looped the 500mb maps like 4 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 the 18z GFS was crazy...i looped the 500mb maps like 4 times heh, yeah it was a bit whacked once it drops in and then goes nuts afterwards before retrograding to the west/nw. im certainly not buying that yet.. even thru monday is iffy. but verbatim the 18z has like 2000-300 cape to the east of 95 and fires storms in a pretty interesting environment mon afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 What is Ian's track record like with thread to storm ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 What is Ian's track record like with thread to storm ratio? there'll be some storms. friday has looked off and on ok. never quite what it was originally from like a week out but models have a distinct short wave cutting through the southern lakes with the front. we rarely get out of a heat wave with a front that has no storms at all. monday is perhaps a reach.. but it has higher potential if it works out. i think overall things will be more interesting heading toward/into july unless the central u.s. ridge just floods the entire pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 What is Ian's track record like with thread to storm ratio? Not nearly as good as his "meh" to no-storms ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Tomorrow could be fun to watch locally if a storm passes through. Maybe a chase opportunity Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Tomorrow could be fun to watch locally if a storm passes through. Maybe a chase opportunity Monday But as usual you'll flee our area to go elsewhere IN all seriousness though - if you starting to think that way about Monday I'm happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 There is a possibility for something exciting to happen? Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 But as usual you'll flee our area to go elsewhere IN all seriousness though - if you starting to think that way about Monday I'm happy! It's usually an issue of the tornado threat being out of the area, though also trying to chase in MD/DC can be quite the pain Current models put the threat in SE VA/southern Delmarva on Monday, with the Euro looking less appealing with its faster solution. Of course, if it looks like there could be a landfalling cane in Florida soon after, I may just concentrate on that instead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 There is a possibility for something exciting to happen? Sweet! When in doubt, bet on a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 It's fun to watch how that low on the 500s drops south on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Slight risk tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 There should be some showers and thunderstorms around tomorrow with the front. We're near the right rear quadrant of an upper level wind max which should help though the vaguely cyclonic curvature of it may not help. The NWS 60% pops looks pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 monday i presume from spc: ADDITIONALLY...STRONGER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTION LIMITS PREDICTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z gfs still likes the monday threat tho it is still focused to the east and south of dc/balt. the long range pattern is good too--probably not real but eh. nice fast flow--derecho time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z gfs still likes the monday threat tho it is still focused to the east and south of dc/balt. the long range pattern is good too--probably not real but eh. nice fast flow--derecho time! Looking at the GFS and how it handles the upper low is entertaining. I like watching it at maximum speed on NCEP lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 new spc day 2 ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT -- WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED E OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS...THOUGH MODEST SHEAR MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. STILL...WITH CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCAL ORGANIZATION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH STRONGER CELLS/STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE LIMITED THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR N AS NRN NEW ENGLAND...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN THE NEW YORK CITY/PHILADELPHIA/WASHINGTON D.C. CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I will get some nice boomers down here on the bay. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I will get some nice boomers down here on the bay. Book it shootin off fireworks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I just want some rain. Grass took quite a turn for the worst this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Got a quick few rain drops last night around 11-midnite. Nothing to help out with the dryness or humidity though Hopefully today we get a good soaker, I dont even need a thunderstorm just some decent rain. Like Smokey said, grass defintley slowed down in growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 HRRR has a messy line coming in around 4-5pm HRW-NMM and HRW-ARW have a line coming around 5pm WRF has storms starting to pop up around 3pm, but mainly east of 95 with some storms popping up west of 95 after 5pm High Res NAM from ewall has storms firing around 2-3pm right along 95 before moving east with some other showers/storms popping up around 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'm ready for moderate rain, a few rumbles of thunder and 30 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Interesting that the SPC doesn't even have a 5% hail risk in the area today. Not saying that there's a real hail risk, but it's rare for them to put a 15% wind without some sort of accompanying hail/tor threat, especially in the summer when CAPE isn't as much of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Interesting that the SPC doesn't even have a 5% hail risk in the area today. Not saying that there's a real hail risk, but it's rare for them to put a 15% wind without some sort of accompanying hail/tor threat, especially in the summer when CAPE isn't as much of an issue. yeah i wondered about that too. i'd bet that any svr storm warning will have "and hail to xx size" in the text.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 yeah i wondered about that too. i'd bet that any svr storm warning will have "and hail to xx size" in the text.. We'll see - I've noticed lately an uptick in the number of warnings that just state the wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 We'll see - I've noticed lately an uptick in the number of warnings that just state the wind speed. NC warning has hail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 60% chance if watch http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1239.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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