Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I know it's three days about, but with a 30% risk from the SPC I figured it warranted a separate thread from the generic obs and discussion one. Plus, in the event that this turns into something significant, we all like having a central thread to refer back to. Timing appears to be important for this threat (as it always is). SPC map below (attached, not linked for preservation purposes) *** Our resident mapgirl seems to think threat will remain mainly south and Eskimo Joe believes front may have issues coming north of I-70 (working on past events). We shall see! I bet Yoda will be the first person to post in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 GFS and EURO (00z models last night) for 00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Yoda's favorite source (wxcaster.com) prints out some really impressive stuff for Friday... Take a look at the 86% supercell probability! Probably overdone...also of note is the large amounts of CAPE. This is from the 12z NAM for Friday PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 If the numerical guidance comes into better agreement tonight, I'll bite on Mason-Dixon south as a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 If the numerical guidance comes into better agreement tonight, I'll bite on Mason-Dixon south as a go. Knowing our track record with svr...I bet it shifts to no threat at all Also Ian has given his official rating of a 6 on his MehIndex for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I wasnt the first to post in this thread I see this as mainly a damaging wind and tornado threat... don't see much of a hail threat even though ML Lapse rates are 6.5 C/KM if that's to be believed. At least 0-6km shear is good, 40-45 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Knowing our track record with svr...I bet it shifts to no threat at all Also Ian has given his official rating of a 6 on his MehIndex for us. Storm Level 3 per CWG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Trough is definitely tilted negatively, we could get a decent squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Trough is definitely tilted negatively, we could get a decent squall line Negative tilt is always nice for our storm events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Trough is definitely tilted negatively, we could get a decent squall line Would be nice... if that did happen we would have to hope for some discrete cells in front of the line for any tor threat... this could be biggest threat (and I stress THREAT) since June 08 I believe it was... or was it '09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Would be nice... if that did happen we would have to hope for some discrete cells in front of the line for any tor threat... this could be biggest threat (and I stress THREAT) since June 08 I believe it was... or was it '09? 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 08 June 4, 2008 was incredible. First time in my school career that I remember schools here being closed due to thunderstorms (following day). I remember teachers were throwing a fit because it was the one exam review day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 June 4, 2008 was incredible. First time in my school career that I remember schools here being closed due to thunderstorms (following day). I remember teachers were throwing a fit because it was the one exam review day. My sister graduated HS that day, and I remember calling the school to tell them to move it inside because the threat was so bad. They did. But I do remember driving home (I was living in Pasadena at the time) from the city telling my mom to get to the lower level bathroom with the dogs cause a tornado warning was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 FYI -- June 4 2008 event had 15% svr probs and SLGT risk on the June 3rd Day 2 0800z and 1730z OTLKs. MOD risk didnt show up till 1300z OTLK on June 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Here is the thread from eastern http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/165777-1-year-ago-june-4-2008-historic-mid-atlantic-severe-weather-outbreak/page__k__6508f059784adbbee0d63c050bc268fb__settingNewSkin__3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 FYI -- June 4 2008 event had 15% svr probs and SLGT risk on the June 3rd Day 2 0800z and 1730z OTLKs. MOD risk didnt show up till 1300z OTLK on June 4 Then that means we're going to get storms that are twice as bad as the 4 June 2008 ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 FYI -- June 4 2008 event had 15% svr probs and SLGT risk on the June 3rd Day 2 0800z and 1730z OTLKs. MOD risk didnt show up till 1300z OTLK on June 4 Different setup tho. Tough to compare two diff events. But purely going on probablities from SPC we area 'ahead' of June 4 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Anyone here think we get an early upgrade to MOD Risk tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Besides a really nice neg tilt, what else do we have going for us that would warrant a mod risk? Winds aloft aren't all that fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Anyone here think we get an early upgrade to MOD Risk tomorrow? If we did, wouldn't be till 1730z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Besides a really nice neg tilt, what else do we have going for us that would warrant a mod risk? Winds aloft aren't all that fantastic. 0-6km shear looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Anyone here think we get an early upgrade to MOD Risk tomorrow? I'd say no. But it will all depend on the 00z models and how they come together (or don't). Maybe we get a hatched area though but I'd say they will stick with 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 All 3 of you were a bunch of weenies in 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I'd say no. But it will all depend on the 00z models and how they come together (or don't). Maybe we get a hatched area though but I'd say they will stick with 30% Eventually, if the setup remains we'll get a d1 mod, as for tomorrow I think 30 hatched tonight and maybe just maybe mod 1730 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 All 3 of you were a bunch of weenies in 08 I was once the storms/reports came in from W VA into the Luray area. I had to use my geography skills and mapping techniques I was learning cause I work at a school and we get out at 3PM... we had to hold after getting a few buses out -- I got to make the decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I was once the storms/reports came in from W VA into the Luray area. I had to use my geography skills and mapping techniques I was learning cause I work at a school and we get out at 3PM... we had to hold after getting a few buses out -- I got to make the decision Who are you kidding? You're still a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Who are you kidding? You're still a weenie Weenie Commander! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 For those of you interested in what happened on June 4th - 5th, 2008, here is the analysis page from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080604 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 For those of you interested in what happened on June 4th - 5th, 2008, here is the analysis page from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa....p?date=20080604 I love that resource on the SPC page. H5 looks super different than the setup for this Friday (not saying you were implying it was similar). Hopefully a red tagger can chime in and make some comments at some point on the overall setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Went to Eastern to try to find the June 4th, 2008 thread, but completely failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.