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SE PA/Mt. Holly severe threats..


NaoPos

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Pre-storm whining seems to work so well for Lee, I figured I'd give it a try. So far it's not working.

I'm starting to think we don't even see any rain here. :arrowhead:

It's all cool though. This is NJ, after all. We can get an earthquake and hurricane in the same week. Severe weather on the other hand...

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Pre-storm whining seems to work so well for Lee, I figured I'd give it a try. So far it's not working.

I'm starting to think we don't even see any rain here. :arrowhead:

It's all cool though. This is NJ, after all. We can get an earthquake and hurricane in the same week. Severe weather on the other hand...

Sorry it didnt even work for me. Good try though.

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Also for what it is worth the 00z NAM has a heavy band from beryl tomorrow for extreme south jersey and parts of Delaware,

I do not think that is completely from Beryl, but the actual cold front drapped in that area helping to focus the moisture and renewed convective development.

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I do not think that is completely from Beryl, but the actual cold front drapped in that area helping to focus the moisture and renewed convective development.

That would make sense. as it will not be completely through the area in fact the latest spc wrf 4km tries to pop a weak line tomorrow along it for eastern pa. I doubt it will be exactly what it has but I guess an Isolated storm can not be ruled out.

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I do not think that is completely from Beryl, but the actual cold front drapped in that area helping to focus the moisture and renewed convective development.

I would agree with you. Beryl's moisture that's riding NE up the SW jet is moving overhead and in NJ/DE this AM. The front itself will trigger those afternoon/evening showers/storms to our west (assuming they do pop).

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High temp to precip ratio 31:.01 yesterday, all's back to normal with the rainshadow. Day3 outlook can't be right :whistle: , I'm not the warning met. ;)

Hey, don't shoot the messenger!

Tom Timmer,

How much did you drop in the Drexel hill rain gauge?

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I got a quick flutter in my heart.

Then I remembered yesterday.

lol from the discussion...: "perhaps even a tornado threat". i'm stocking up on glue to sniff so i'm ready for friday.

If the 6z NAM is to be believed, the warm front only makes it to Wilmington or so, but right along it you've got 0-3km SRH >300 with a 40-kt LLJ and nice backed surface flow. Combined with around 1000 J/Kg of CAPE that sounds like a tornado threat to me (for the warm sector anyway).

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If the 6z NAM is to be believed, the warm front only makes it to Wilmington or so, but right along it you've got 0-3km SRH >300 with a 40-kt LLJ and nice backed surface flow. Combined with around 1000 J/Kg of CAPE that sounds like a tornado threat to me (for the warm sector anyway).

omg

is it getting hot in here or is it just me?

i'm going to need a cold shower soon if i keep dwelling on it

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