Tropical Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Just thought I would start this topic for discussion on possible summer outcomes. EURO outlook was released yesterday and it is showing a warm to hot and dry summer for most of us ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Looking at the that top graphic with the heat dome over the mid section the country... I would expect a ring of fire type pattern to develop on the north side. Not have the dry area extend quite so far north... Kind of on the edge of the typical summer weather here vs. above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 Looking at the that top graphic with the heat dome over the mid section the country... I would expect a ring of fire type pattern to develop on the north side. Not have the dry area extend quite so far north... Kind of on the edge of the typical summer weather here vs. above normal. Environmental Canada extends the head dome over all of us and into Canada. Be wary of a ring of fire call for us. The cool areas in northern and western Canada match up well between both maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Would you have been starting this thread if the map showed cool? Those Euro weeklies are so reliable I guess I'll throw in the towel. Another torch. Anything is possible at this point. The smart call is torch just because of persistance. I do know if this does verify we are going to burn up and blow away here and there won't be a lake or river left with water in it. So yes, I'll be the weenie against it. FWIW, cfs2: Already it's April forecast is in big trouble but yeah, a second half all out torch would change everything. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html What is much more concerning to me is all the dry forecasts, regardless of temp... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html If the torch/dry idea is right, we are toast. Worst drought since '76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Would you have been starting this thread if the map showed cool? Those Euro weeklies are so reliable I guess I'll throw in the towel. Another torch. Anything is possible at this point. The smart call is torch just because of persistance. I do know if this does verify we are going to burn up and blow away here and there won't be a lake or river left with water in it. So yes, I'll be the weenie against it. FWIW, cfs2: Already it's April forecast is in big trouble but yeah, a second half all out torch would change everything. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html What is much more concerning to me is all the dry forecasts, regardless of temp... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html If the torch/dry idea is right, we are toast. Worst drought since '76. It's gonna be very interesting to watch this developing forecast and drought progress. Don't really need heat to compliment the drought either. If I was a betting man I would say normal temps with below normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It's gonna be very interesting to watch this developing forecast and drought progress. Don't really need heat to compliment the drought either. If I was a betting man I would say normal temps with below normal precipitation. Well the 76 analog is on your side and still running strong at the moment. This should change though as we get into summer and especially fall and thus see the QBO for why. Thus be careful with it. The dryness we have right now should be wiped out by early next week. If any place sees a drought take hold nearby it is most likely to be along i95 and thus east of the apps and maybe southern OV. Other then that i would say go west into the rockies/western part of the country. Granted with a developing Nino the sw may be a bit wetter too especially during the second half of summer. I'll wait a few more weeks ( early May ) before jumping in. One thing i am highly confident ( 99% ) of is we should not see above/much above normal temps in this region for the summer. More of a question of normal vs below normal. Not to say we wont see a month go the + side either and thus see 76 i do believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 99% we won't see a hot summer?? Too quick to discount a hot summer, especially forecasting those percentages of certainty. Even the professionals won't call for a 99% probability for above or below normal temps a few weeks out, let along a season out. Summer 2002 was hot with a developing nino. Environmental Canada has been SPOT ON with their outlooks the past several seasons. I'm going with 65% hot, 25% normal, 10% below normal for probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Harry, Your "JAMSTEC" is now trending warmer again for the summer from last months forecast. March forecast: April forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Harry, Your "JAMSTEC" is now trending warmer again for the summer from last months forecast. March forecast: April forecast: See the freeze thread. As said there it now looks more like 76 for the region. IF anything i could see Canada being a bit warmer and the lower 48 ( outside the n.Plains/GL ) being a bit cooler and thus see 76 which had the warmest departures from the GL back across the N.Plains up into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 See the freeze thread. As said there it now looks more like 76 for the region. IF anything i could see Canada being a bit warmer and the lower 48 ( outside the n.Plains/GL ) being a bit cooler and thus see 76 which had the warmest departures from the GL back across the N.Plains up into Canada. You thinking May is this cold down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 With respect to Enviormental Canada they have been crazy spot on as of late. Anyone know what formulas and or model they are using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Interesting Euro forecast. I'm continuing to play with possible summer analogs. Although the analysis is partial, 2002 remains very much in the mix for summer (much less so for winter). Earlier, in another thread, I assessed my thoughts about probabilities for warm/cool anomalies as follows: Highest probability of cool anomalies in the East: New England or Southeastern U.S. (not assured) Highest probability of cool anomalies in the West: California, possibly Oregon and parts of Washington (California seemed likely to be cool) Highest probability of warm anomalies: Southern Plains As I get into greater detail, there have been some shifts. One of the more complete composites shows cool anomalies near or over California; near normal anomalies over the Pac NW, New England, and Southeast. Warmth is focused on the southern, central, and northern Plains into the Great Lakes region and the Middle Atlantic region. The Central Plains has the warmest anomalies relative to normal. Again, the analysis is partial. I am making no calls at this time, as I'm waiting for additional data to confirm or change my emerging thoughts. Subsequent data e.g., whether an El Niño evolves sooner or later, can still lead to dramatic changes. Given observed decadal changes and also, to date, lack of cold in the Arctic, my worry is that whatever the outcome, it will be warmer than the underlying pattern would typically suggest. In short, another warm summer for the CONUS as a whole remains very much on the table. Toward the end of May, I should have enough data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 You thinking May is this cold down south? With as wet as they are looking to be.. YES. I could see that happening. Not so sure up this way which i could see being a bit warmer then that shows. Either May or June should go the above normal route with temps in this region anyways. A bit stormier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Interesting Euro forecast. I'm continuing to play with possible summer analogs. Although the analysis is partial, 2002 remains very much in the mix for summer (much less so for winter). Earlier, in another thread, I assessed my thoughts about probabilities for warm/cool anomalies as follows: Highest probability of cool anomalies in the East: New England or Southeastern U.S. (not assured) Highest probability of cool anomalies in the West: California, possibly Oregon and parts of Washington (California seemed likely to be cool) Highest probability of warm anomalies: Southern Plains As I get into greater detail, there have been some shifts. One of the more complete composites shows cool anomalies near or over California; near normal anomalies over the Pac NW, New England, and Southeast. Warmth is focused on the southern, central, and northern Plains into the Great Lakes region and the Middle Atlantic region. The Central Plains has the warmest anomalies relative to normal. Again, the analysis is partial. I am making no calls at this time, as I'm waiting for additional data to confirm or change my emerging thoughts. Subsequent data e.g., whether an El Niño evolves sooner or later, can still lead to dramatic changes. Given observed decadal changes and also, to date, lack of cold in the Arctic, my worry is that whatever the outcome, it will be warmer than the underlying pattern would typically suggest. In short, another warm summer for the CONUS as a whole remains very much on the table. Toward the end of May, I should have enough data. I am still not seing 2002 for summer in any shape or form. Now 76 on the other hand different story. As mentioned above that had the warmest departures from the Great Lakes back across the N.Plains up into Canada with the coldest departures from normal further south. I'll place a bet that this summer is not as toasty as 2002 was across the lower 48. QBO/Precip trends etc say no. I am that certain of it. Also.. As you can see by this point the whole Pacific was in full Nino mode already. Also note the IO region which has implications with the tropical forcing ( MJO ) and so forth. Current I personally think you are way overstating the decadal warming trends too and thus see 2009 for why i say that. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Endless Summer days relaxing on the beach in Elk Rapids Mi. Those Endless summer nights sitting in the sand around a fire with good friends, drinking shorts beer and talking about the easier things in life. Summertime FTW!! Big plans this year! hiking the UP and a much needed trip to beaver island. Kayaking the pine river FTW ! My company/boss is gonna **** when they see my 5 weeks of requested time off this Summer. Trying to figure out an upcoming season is difficult. There is no crystal ball and this past Winter laughed at the experts and analogues. This summer is gonna do whatever it wants like every other season. No disrespect to you guys that spend hours on LR forecasting but the bust potential is so high. Things have gotten much better over the years. Heck even accu has a 25 day forecast. But I will take this to the grave and might be right that not in our lifetimes or ever will man be able to predict 50 days out! Like I said before Im not downplaying the work you guys do. Kind of just my opinion and outlook on weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Endless Summer days relaxing on the beach in Elk Rapids Mi. Those Endless summer nights sitting in the sand around a fire with good friends, drinking shorts beer and talking about the easier things in life. Summertime FTW!! Big plans this year! hiking the UP and a much needed trip to beaver island. Kayaking the pine river FTW ! My company/boss is gonna **** when they see my 5 weeks of requested time off this Summer. Trying to figure out an upcoming season is difficult. There is no crystal ball and this past Winter laughed at the experts and analogues. This summer is gonna do whatever it wants like every other season. No disrespect to you guys that spend hours on LR forecasting but the bust potential is so high. Things have gotten much better over the years. Heck even accu has a 25 day forecast. But I will take this to the grave and might be right that not in our lifetimes or ever will man be able to predict 50 days out! Like I said before Im not downplaying the work you guys do. Kind of just my opinion and outlook on weather forecasting. That sounds sweet dude. Summer does have it's perks and that is a few of them. The only thing i miss here is the water/sandy beach which i did enjoy alot in the summer. All depends on what those so called experts looked at. As mentioned a little while back when i went and dug deeper ( did not have a chance to do last fall/late summer and thus why no outlook by me ) i found plenty that showed the potential for this winter to end up as warm etc as it did. Part of the problem again is the refusal by * some* to even look at the older data and thus where the clues were. And YES it has happened on a number of occasions in recent years. See 06-07, 08-09 for some recent examples when a good number of experts were wrong. Others as well but those stick out the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I personally think you are way overstating the decadal warming trends too and thus see 2009 for why i say that. JMHO For now, that's just a concern. More important will be the Arctic/high latitude state during the March-May period. Below are charts showing that region for the 5 coolest and 5 warmest summers during the 1990-2011 period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I am still not seing 2002 for summer in any shape or form. Now 76 on the other hand different story. I was only 5 in '76 but I remember that summer. I remember playing in a normally 6 foot deep pond walking on dry ground. Was just talking to my dad who was farming back then and he said it didn't rain hardly a drop from end of May to September and then it rained nonstop for a month. Tell me this doesn't have the look... http://origin.cpc.nc...sPrece3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Summer 1976 was second driest here (1894 was the worst)... 4.5 inches of rainfall that summer. 2003 was also very dry here with a little over 6 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Summer 1976 was second driest here (1894 was the worst)... 4.5 inches of rainfall that summer. 2003 was also very dry here with a little over 6 inches... If this dryness continues it will be a very long warm season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I will preface this with the fact that I am a complete noob. This would not surprise me at all, just came out. You can kind of see this sort of thing setting up even this early in the spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 The Accuweather Summer Outlook is here - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2012-summer-forecast/64673 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 The Accuweather Summer Outlook is here - http://www.accuweath...-forecast/64673 The summer dream pattern for most around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 The Accuweather Summer Outlook is here - http://www.accuweath...-forecast/64673 So in other words, a 2010 redux. Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 So in other words, a 2010 redux. Meh... You mean yay? I would most certainly take it in a heartbeat. That was an active summer for our area, 40+ days of thunderstorms from May-Sept. Not to mention it was above normal for the entire summer with 16 90 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 You mean yay? I would most certainly take it in a heartbeat. That was an active summer for our area, 40+ days of thunderstorms from May-Sept. Not to mention it was above normal for the entire summer with 16 90 degree days. Yeah, 2010 was a perfectly fine summer from a severe weather and heat perspective. The main corridor of action was a bit south of me that summer, but that's just life. April and May were slow severe weather months that year, but June was good (I think June 2010 is somewhat underrated; there were 8 tornadoes, but 5 of those occurred at night, and 2 others were unwarned). In addition, late July was also very active. And the cherry on top that summer was the flying eagle supercell that produced 2 tornadoes in Macomb County on a See Text day in August. Of course, my dream is for Michigan to one day get a repeat of Summer 2004 (lots of days with supercells riding warm fronts in the Saginaw Valley/Thumb, which are good chasing areas by Michigan standards), but I wouldn't complain if we ended up in a similar pattern as 2010 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Torch time. With Drought! My favorite combo. First map temps, second precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 2010 was awesome on terms of temps and severe. It was relentless then followed by an epic nice fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 2010 was awesome on terms of temps and severe. It was relentless then followed by an epic nice fall And epic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Yeah, 2010 was a perfectly fine summer from a severe weather and heat perspective. The main corridor of action was a bit south of me that summer, but that's just life. April and May were slow severe weather months that year, but June was good (I think June 2010 is somewhat underrated; there were 8 tornadoes, but 5 of those occurred at night, and 2 others were unwarned). In addition, late July was also very active. And the cherry on top that summer was the flying eagle supercell that produced 2 tornadoes in Macomb County on a See Text day in August. Of course, my dream is for Michigan to one day get a repeat of Summer 2004 (lots of days with supercells riding warm fronts in the Saginaw Valley/Thumb, which are good chasing areas by Michigan standards), but I wouldn't complain if we ended up in a similar pattern as 2010 this year. 2010 wasn't a bad summer, but it was way too cloudy for liking and it was only consistently warm versus hot. Plus, I also recall a lot of the convection missing us to the south. I would take a 1955/1988/1995/2011 summer any year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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