3/2-3/3 Damage Assessment Thread

[Hoosier]

Ok, so it looks like Kentucky "Trimble county tornado #1" is an extension of the Indiana EF4.

[Stebo]

This is going to be one of those Hesston-Goessel or Picher-Neosho type situations where the damage is continuous, but in fact one vortex dissipated and another took over, so to speak.

Also, Marysville damage is EF3, apparently.

That is a bit surprising unless these houses were essentially just shacks.

[tornadotony]

The map is confusing, but it looks like one path.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lmk/03022012_EF4.htm

[Hoosier]

I'll have to analyze the survey results in more detail but it sounds like locations of EF4 damage in at least 3 out of the 4 counties of Washington, Scott, Clark, and Jefferson and maybe all 4.

[CoastalWx]

It's good that the media is getting out the actual number of tornadoes reported so far. I usually cringe when the media just logs on to the SPC page, takes the preliminary numbers, and runs with it. That's such a misrepresentation, but since they love to drive home the impact..it's not a surprise.

[Hoosier]

I compiled the segments for the EF4 and posted the survey in its entirety on my blog for anyone who is interested

survey

[tornadotony]

This is my count so far.

EF0: 10

EF1: 11

EF2: 15

EF3: 9

EF4: 1

EF5: 0

Total: 46

[andyhb]

Piecing together statements from JKL and RLX, it sounds like the West Liberty tornado was on the ground for 96mi.

Jesus.

Just going out on a limb here, I'm going to bet it may have surpassed EF3 strength before it reached West Liberty (i.e. it maxed out before it hit the city).

[andyhb]

This is going to be one of those Hesston-Goessel or Picher-Neosho type situations where the damage is continuous, but in fact one vortex dissipated and another took over, so to speak.

Also, Marysville damage is EF3, apparently.

That surprises me a bit.

[Cary]

From LMK's assessment:

Simultaneously, a new tornado vortex rapidly formed near Mahan Road

and Old State Road 3 immediately southwest of the first tornado. The

second tornado began as an EF1 and damaged a church. The vortex

quickly intensified to EF3 strength as it crossed the south part of

the town on Marysville, severely damaging several homes.

A Civil Air Patrol flight on Sunday, March 4 revealed extensive

ground scouring in farmers` fields east of Marysville all the way to

the Jefferson-Scott County line. This scouring was evidence of a

multi-vortex tornado, which was confirmed by multiple videos and

photographs.

Several homes were severely damaged near and south of the

intersection of Nabb New Washington Road and Marysville Nabb Road

(EF3, 150 mph winds, one-third mile damage path width).

[Chicago Storm]

Updated breakdown I have...

March 2nd:

PAH: 1

LMK: 8

ILN: 10

JKL: 3

RLX: 2

OHX: 2

MRX: 10

JAN: 1

HUN: 4

BMX: 4

FFC: 2

-----------

IN: 4

KY: 12

OH: 7

WV: 2

TN: 11

MS: 1

AL: 7

GA: 2

VA: 1

NC: 1

-----------

EF-0: 8

EF-1: 12

EF-2: 15

EF-3: 9

EF-4: 1

-----------

Total: 45

March 3rd:

CAE: 1

GSP: 1

TAE: 1

-----------

GA: 1

NC: 1

SC: 1

-----------

EF-0: 1

EF-2: 1

EF-3: 1

-----------

Total: 3

Overall Total: 48

[Stebo]

I am a bit surprised we haven't gotten more from PAH, as they had 7 different reports of tornadoes in their CWA according to the LSRs.

[blackjack123]

I just need someone to enlighten me a little bit on some of these surveys. I am not trying to make an arguement about any of this but some of the tornadoes in this outbreak seemed nearly as violent as some of the tornadoes from April 27, 2011 but were rated EF3. I am not saying an EF3 is not a bad tornado because apparently it is. Last year some tornadoes got upgraded to EF5 based on some unusual circumstances. It just sometimes seems like EF3=EF5 in several cases. For instance last year the Philadelphia tornado was upgraded to EF5 based on the ground being dug up two feet and asphalt scoured. Another instance was the Sylvania tornado last year which was upgraded to EF5. One instance it picked up an 800lb safe ripped the door right off the hinges and was blown downstream about 600yds. There was a tornado on March 3rd that debarked all the trees, ripped a door off a chest freezer and blew the body downwind several hundreds of yards and penetrated the earth two feet with objects such as metal bars etc. It just seems like an EF3 damage survey seems almost as impressive as an EF5 damage survey. EF3 tornadoes seem almost like EF5 tornadoes. No biggie or anything would just like to know.

[David Reimer]

I just need someone to enlighten me a little bit on some of these surveys. I am not trying to make an arguement about any of this but some of the tornadoes in this outbreak seemed nearly as violent as some of the tornadoes from April 27, 2011 but were rated EF3. I am not saying an EF3 is not a bad tornado because apparently it is. Last year some tornadoes got upgraded to EF5 based on some unusual circumstances. It just sometimes seems like EF3=EF5 in several cases. For instance last year the Philadelphia tornado was upgraded to EF5 based on the ground being dug up two feet and asphalt scoured. Another instance was the Sylvania tornado last year which was upgraded to EF5. One instance it picked up an 800lb safe ripped the door right off the hinges and was blown downstream about 600yds. There was a tornado on March 3rd that debarked all the trees, ripped a door off a chest freezer and blew the body downwind several hundreds of yards and penetrated the earth two feet with objects such as metal bars etc. It just seems like an EF3 damage survey seems almost as impressive as an EF5 damage survey. EF3 tornadoes seem almost like EF5 tornadoes. No biggie or anything would just like to know.

I heard Tim Marshall speak a few weeks back on his damage survey in Joplin. According to him, most of the structural damage in town was EF-3 to EF-4. The EF-5 tornado rating was based on circumstantial evidence that really wasn't included as a ranking in the EF-Scale damage indicators. In reality, an EF-3 to EF-4 tornado will destroy most structures. An EF-5 tornado rating is based on very extreme damage or as Jim LaDue said during his talk last week in Norman, EF-5 damage indicators. Considerable ground scouring, like no grass left at all. Trees/shrubs/fence posts have to be completely destroyed/mutilated. Remember even if there is a clean foundation, there are several ways that could happen. During one of the EF-4 tornadoes on May 24 last year, a well-built structure with proper foundation connections was completely destroyed. At first, that was an indication of possible EF-5 damage. However, something interesting was found in the home's damage... A twisted, morphed mobile home frame was embedded in the damage of that destroyed home. It turns out a neighbor's mobile home was lofted and thrown into the house, which meant that the house was able to be destroyed with less then expected wind speeds. Most NWS offices will not rate a tornado EF-5 without bringing in national experts (Tim Marshall, Jim LaDue, etc). Trying to determine the difference between an EF-4 and EF-5 Tornado is very difficult. In my opinion, it doesn't matter if it's an EF-4 to EF-5 Tornado. With the three second 90 MPH building code across much of the United States, most homes will be completely destroyed by an EF-3 Tornado. An EF-4 tornado will just completely obliterate structures and in most cases, leave a clean foundation. In order for a tornado to be rated EF-5, incredible damage must occur. According to Tim and Jim, the Bridge Creek Tornado of May 3, 1999 remains the most powerful tornado they have surveyed to date. I hope this helped you a bit.

[blackjack123]

I heard Tim Marshall speak a few weeks back on his damage survey in Joplin. According to him, most of the structural damage in town was EF-3 to EF-4. The EF-5 tornado rating was based on circumstantial evidence that really wasn't included as a ranking in the EF-Scale damage indicators. In reality, an EF-3 to EF-4 tornado will destroy most structures. An EF-5 tornado rating is based on very extreme damage or as Jim LaDue said during his talk last week in Norman, EF-5 damage indicators. Considerable ground scouring, like no grass left at all. Trees/shrubs/fence posts have to be completely destroyed/mutilated. Remember even if there is a clean foundation, there are several ways that could happen. During one of the EF-4 tornadoes on May 24 last year, a well-built structure with proper foundation connections was completely destroyed. At first, that was an indication of possible EF-5 damage. However, something interesting was found in the home's damage... A twisted, morphed mobile home frame was embedded in the damage of that destroyed home. It turns out a neighbor's mobile home was lofted and thrown into the house, which meant that the house was able to be destroyed with less then expected wind speeds. Most NWS offices will not rate a tornado EF-5 without bringing in national experts (Tim Marshall, Jim LaDue, etc). Trying to determine the difference between an EF-4 and EF-5 Tornado is very difficult. In my opinion, it doesn't matter if it's an EF-4 to EF-5 Tornado. With the three second 90 MPH building code across much of the United States, most homes will be completely destroyed by an EF-3 Tornado. An EF-4 tornado will just completely obliterate structures and in most cases, leave a clean foundation. In order for a tornado to be rated EF-5, incredible damage must occur. According to Tim and Jim, the Bridge Creek Tornado of May 3, 1999 remains the most powerful tornado they have surveyed to date. I hope this helped you a bit.

Thank You. I just remember last year when the Philadelphia tornado was upgraded to EF5 based on two feet of topsoil removed from the ground and the Piedmont tornado being upgraded to EF5 based on a wind speed clocked at 210 mph. I just feel like thats extremely unusual to upgrade a tornado based on such evidence.

[JoMo]

There isn't a whole lot of difference once you get to and above EF-4.

I believe most of the damage in Joplin was EF-3-EF-4 based on the factors that define an EF-4. But those factors are clouded by older construction mixed with newer construction, the amount of debris in the tornado which may have helped destroy some structures as noted by David's mention of the mobile home in the OK tornado, or may have made some foundations not 'clean' due to all the debris.

Some of the factors that went into determining the sporadic EF-5 reports were:

In an area of decently built homes near the high school, the homes were completely leveled, and even the flooring was ripped up. There was asphalt scouring near Home Depot. The 200-300 lbs parking stops at St. Johns that were rebared down and tossed, correlate to wind speeds of 205 MPH. Joplin is missing 31 manhole covers and the wind to remove those barely exceeds 200 MPH.

[thewxmann]

I just need someone to enlighten me a little bit on some of these surveys. I am not trying to make an arguement about any of this but some of the tornadoes in this outbreak seemed nearly as violent as some of the tornadoes from April 27, 2011 but were rated EF3. I am not saying an EF3 is not a bad tornado because apparently it is. Last year some tornadoes got upgraded to EF5 based on some unusual circumstances. It just sometimes seems like EF3=EF5 in several cases. For instance last year the Philadelphia tornado was upgraded to EF5 based on the ground being dug up two feet and asphalt scoured. Another instance was the Sylvania tornado last year which was upgraded to EF5. One instance it picked up an 800lb safe ripped the door right off the hinges and was blown downstream about 600yds. There was a tornado on March 3rd that debarked all the trees, ripped a door off a chest freezer and blew the body downwind several hundreds of yards and penetrated the earth two feet with objects such as metal bars etc. It just seems like an EF3 damage survey seems almost as impressive as an EF5 damage survey. EF3 tornadoes seem almost like EF5 tornadoes. No biggie or anything would just like to know.

Respectfully disagree. The tornadoes this goaround were clearly less violent than 4/27. The tornadoes on 4/27 literally wiped homes off the map. Here we still have the debris laying around (and in many cases e.g. Moscow and West Liberty, many the walls are even still standing). Also, remember that the Cordova *low-end* EF4 threw a 2-ton utility trailer a mile, which ended up impacting the ground with enough momentum to create a 2.5-ft deep crater. Nothing like that happened in the tornado you are referring to, and it only hit trees and mobile homes at that intensity (which only go up to EF3 anyway).

[Hoosier]

LMK posted this map of the track through Henryille.

A close-up of the track through Henryville. Note the evidence of multiple vortices developing to the south of the main tornado and wrapping into the larger circulation. The school campus is just northwest of the intersection of Ferguson St. and IN 160.

[baroclinic_instability]

This isn't necessarily related to damage assessment, but here is a neat little loop of all the NWS watches/warnings on the NWS hazard map as the event was ongoing.

[Chicago Storm]

Latest count has over 50 tors on Friday...

March 2nd:

PAH: 1

LMK: 8

ILN: 12

JKL: 4

RLX: 2

OHX: 2

MRX: 11

JAN: 1

HUN: 6

BMX: 4

FFC: 2

-----------

IN: 4

KY: 14

OH: 8

WV: 2

TN: 12

MS: 1

AL: 9

GA: 2

VA: 1

NC: 1

-----------

EF-0: 13

EF-1: 14

EF-2: 14

EF-3: 9

EF-4: 1

-----------

Total: 51

March 3rd:

CAE: 1

GSP: 1

TAE: 1

-----------

GA: 1

NC: 1

SC: 1

-----------

EF-0: 1

EF-2: 1

EF-3: 1

-----------

Total: 3

Overall Total: 54

[andyhb]

Respectfully disagree. The tornadoes this goaround were clearly less violent than 4/27. The tornadoes on 4/27 literally wiped homes off the map. Here we still have the debris laying around (and in many cases e.g. Moscow and West Liberty, many the walls are even still standing). Also, remember that the Cordova *low-end* EF4 threw a 2-ton utility trailer a mile, which ended up impacting the ground with enough momentum to create a 2.5-ft deep crater. Nothing like that happened in the tornado you are referring to, and it only hit trees and mobile homes at that intensity (which only go up to EF3 anyway).

This, I haven't seen much outside of the Henryville/Marysville/New Pekin EF4 which comes close to matching the more severe damage we saw on 4/27 or in Joplin. Despite that, we still had 38+ fatalities and two tornadoes which claimed double digits in lives (which hasn't happened since 4/27)...

It would have gotten even more ugly had:

I) Backed surface winds extended further south, creating a greater tornado threat for cities like Nashville.

II) Instability had reached as far north as some models were projecting (I believe some were getting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE into N IN/OH). If this had happened, we would probably see really nasty supercells go up in that area given the winds were even more backed closer to the SLP. Areas like Columbus, Dayton and Indianapolis would've been in very serious danger.

III) If the storms in the OV hadn't missed the major city metropolitans. It was remarkable that Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati, Charleston...all of these larger cities got spared as the supercells played hopscotch around them, although unfortunately, I believe that one day these areas are not going to be so lucky.

[Ginx snewx]

I believe this is the house in question in the before/after photo. The location I've seen it reported as being from was Henryville Otisco Road.

This makes sense to call it "all walls" collapsed. It is probable that the failure point was the three car garage, and once that is compromised tornadic winds were able to take down the rest of the structure.

Dude I just watched NBC news and my heart sunk. That pic was the home where the mom covered her kids, saved their life, her leg and other foot were severed by the bricks. The video shows where that debris pile ended up.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/46638130#46638130

[Hoosier]

This, I haven't seen much outside of the Henryville/Marysville/New Pekin EF4 which comes close to matching the more severe damage we saw on 4/27 or in Joplin. Despite that, we still had 38+ fatalities and two tornadoes which claimed double digits in lives (which hasn't happened since 4/27)...

It would have gotten even more ugly had:

I) Backed surface winds extended further south, creating a greater tornado threat for cities like Nashville.

II) Instability had reached as far north as some models were projecting (I believe some were getting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE into N IN/OH). If this had happened, we would probably see really nasty supercells go up in that area given the winds were even more backed closer to the SLP. Areas like Columbus, Dayton and Indianapolis would've been in very serious danger.

III) If the storms in the OV hadn't missed the major city metropolitans. It was remarkable that Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati, Charleston...all of these larger cities got spared as the supercells played hopscotch around them, although unfortunately, I believe that one day these areas are not going to be so lucky.

One of the hi-res runs from the night before was putting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg as far north as northern IN with sim reflectivity showing a broken band of supercells spanning a long length of IN. Eerily reminiscent of 4/11/65. The mid/upper level jet structure reminded me of that date (although this one was a little less impressive) and the moderate CAPE/high shear environment being depicted on some of the NAM runs in IN/OH was quite reminiscent. If you were to pull up the 00z Apr 12 1965 Dayton RAOB and put it side by side with fcst soundings from 3/2 it would be hard to tell the difference. Didn't want to say much about it before the event since it would've been very easy to get taken out of context.

[mappy]

Dude I just watched NBC news and my heart sunk. That pic was the home where the mom covered her kids, saved their life, her leg and other foot were severed by the bricks. The video shows where that debris pile ended up.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/46638130#46638130

Just watched that too, incredible that the kids were not injured.

[andyhb]

One of the hi-res runs from the night before was putting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg as far north as northern IN with sim reflectivity showing a broken band of supercells spanning a long length of IN. Eerily reminiscent of 4/11/65. The mid/upper level jet structure reminded me of that date (although this one was a little less impressive) and the moderate CAPE/high shear environment being depicted on some of the NAM runs in IN/OH was quite reminiscent. If you were to pull up the 00z Apr 12 1965 Dayton RAOB and put it side by side with fcst soundings from 3/2 it would be hard to tell the difference. Didn't want to say much about it before the event since it would've been very easy to get taken out of context.

Good lord that would've been bad...

Also, there were a few Euro runs not too far out from the event that reminded me so much of the trough/SLP setup from 4/3/74 that it was uncanny.

[Ian]

this is one of the best views i've seen of part of the long-track indiana storm.. at least till they freak out and turn it sideways before running to the basement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRGjWe-qLag

[andyhb]

When they turned it sideways I saw a huge piece of debris flying about halfway up the funnel...

[QcSevereWx]

When they turned it sideways I saw a huge piece of debris flying about halfway up the funnel...

The lady said '' that is a car '' .

[Baroclinicity]

I've been working on a GRLevelX placefile that contains the tornado tracks from March 2/3. Right now it only includes survey results from ILN, LMK and PAH. Also the tornado near Charlotte, NC.

030212 Tornado Tracks Placefile.txt

[JoMo]

Great vid. It's all fun and games until you see a car flying through the air.