Severe threat Mar 2-3

[Cheeznado]

I know there is a thread on the main discussion page but though we could begin to discuss here. KY/TN are realy under the gun again IMO on Friday, with an overnight threat into GA/Carolinas, then in the south GA/FL/eastern Carolinas zone Saturday. Still some model differences to be hashed out, but given how the curent system has overperformed and the scary looking LL shear on the forecast soundings especially on the NAM, I would be surprised if there were not some strong/violent tornadoes with this event.

[Southern Track]

I'm really surprised the local and national mets aren't talking as much about this weekends severe threat. It looks more ominous than the current threat with the models.

[jburns]

NWS Raleigh doesn't even mention thunder in their weekend forecast.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[metalicwx366]

The NWS for here doesn't even mention a threat. They say the dynamics will be mostly in the Carolina north of our forecast area.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

The 12Z GFS is concerning to me for MS/AL/GA/TN and eventually the Carolinas Friday afternoon through Saturday. It has developed a secondary SLP that tracks from S AR through TN, which will back surface winds and yield better 0-1KM helicity values with longer clockwise hodo signatures. 12Z GFS soundings shows LI down to -7 across the Deep South with 60+ Tds and CAPE up near 1250 J/KG. Combine that with strengthening LLJ AOA 50Kts at 850MB, and WSW at 500MB with jet AOA 90Kts, and backed Surface winds supports discrete supercell thunderstorms with tornadoes. 0-3KM helicity values 300-450 M2/S2, and 0-1KM helicity values AOA 300 M2/S2 with LCL heights <500M will support an elevated tornado risk...

[shaggy]

Raleighs AFD

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR SATURDAY...

ON SATURDAY THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES

REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM EARLY

SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND RIDE

ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT TO A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT MOVING THROUGH THE TRIAD AFTER

DAYBREAK AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL

INCREASE PW`S TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. 60-70 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG

WITH 50 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. LONG CLOCKWISE

HODOGRAPHS SWEEP OUT A LARGE AREA INDICATING HIGH VALUES OF HELICITY

EARLY ON THEN STRAIGHTEN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INDICATING SUPERCELLS

OUT AHEAD OF A MORE LINEAR QLCS FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY

LOW INITIALLY BUT WILL PICK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BECOMING A

LARGER FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH

CAROLINA. WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH...FRONTAL

PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW. STRONGER STORMS IN THE TRIAD SHOULD START

AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FOR THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST A BIT

LATER ON AND CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

[it*has*an*i]

The NWS for here doesn't even mention a threat. They say the dynamics will be mostly in the Carolina north of our forecast area.

To your west the NWS offices along the gulf coast say maybe some severe storms. Not sure whether there is a possibility of this increasing if the secondary low develops further south as the GFS shows.

NWS in Mobile mentions the possibility for damaging winds/hail

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

311 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND

LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

NWS Tallahassee sounds a little unsure

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

608 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. WE WILL

CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING

HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE THAT WE

WILL SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT

ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

[lilj4425]

NWS Raleigh doesn't even mention thunder in their weekend forecast.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Same here with GSP. Just showers.

[audioguy3107]

Looks like for those of us in N. Georgia, time to start tracking the next system coming in on Friday seeing as how the current line is weakening into a few showers. N. Georgia storm shield alive and well tonight. For Friday though, thoughts turn to whether or not a second surface low will attempt to form in the lower Mississippi valley as some of the models have shown. If this scenario does occur, could be looking at a more volatile event than this.

[Dunkman]

[andyhb]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS

MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION

ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS

ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH

DEVELOPMENT. RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW

ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2. BY

START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER

ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER

4-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-

AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS. VORTICITY

FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...

EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL

REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z. BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH

OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF

OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN

LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF

WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z. LOW

WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN

OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD.

WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD

START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY

3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND

MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH

CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.

...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...

SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE

DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH

REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL.

SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY

MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

SVR. OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF

COLD FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH

THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION

SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE

TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL

SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS

INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN

TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500

J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER

PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO

INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING

EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT

WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND

RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT

SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH

POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX

MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND

LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...

SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT

RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.

...CAROLINAS...

INITIALLY SEPARATE SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING

AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY CONNECT WITH ERN FRINGES OF LARGER SVR

AREA LATE IN PERIOD AS LATTER REGIME SHIFTS EWD. SRN BRANCH OF STG

MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE

BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM RESIDE IN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL

LIFT...AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL

HEATING...PRESENCE OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND

WEAK MLCINH SHOULD PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO

DEVELOP IN REGIME OF 60S F WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS. ACCORDINGLY

ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE

POSSIBLE...JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

MAIN THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO EXPECTED.

FCST HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK...MAIN

QUESTIONS BEING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE STORM MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2012

[metalicwx366]

Now our NWS mentions a possibilty of a few strong to severe thunderstorm with hail and strong winds but not really much. Real story will be the folks in the moderate risk area.

[audioguy3107]

This is what we really need to watch for here in the SE where we'll be further away from the main forcing up north:

Frmo BHM disco

MODELS NOW INDICATING A SECOND

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT

AND TRACKING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE ALREADY

STRONG WIND PROFILES...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AND INCREASE

A TORNADO THREAT

[eyewall]

RAH has backed down some:

SEVERE THREAT:

A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT LATE FRIDAY

AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH AT LEAST

SOME SFC-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE

WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LITTLE OR NO

LOWER/UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THROUGH ~00Z

SATURDAY (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO SCENARIOS

WHERE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP. 1) A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN

WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT TRACKS OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON

AFTER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED (POSSIBLE BUT VERY

DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS RANGE)...OR 2) AN MCS OR ORGANIZED

CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE

ORIGINAL FORCING MECHANISMS INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF

THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AN

ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. -VINCENT

BOTTOM LINE...A THREAT (PROBABLY A SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND

STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION FOR 3-6 HOURS TIME STARTING

IN THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY... THEN TRACKING SLOWLY EAST

ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY. QPF OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WILL BE

LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. TURNING COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY EAST... AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WEST.

ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT QPF POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH. HIGHS

SATURDAY 65-75 NW TO SE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 40S WEST/LOWER 50S SE.

HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 50S SUNDAY.

[WeatherNC]

12z Euro does close off a secondary low Saturday morning, 12z. 1004mb centered east of Athens GA near the SC boarder, prior to and after it is an open wave traversing the front. WFO's are likely backing off given the trend in most of the guidance over the last several days in not deepening the parent low as much, no where close to the nam superbomb 970-something runs from yesterday. Euro has a 998'ish low centered over MO 7am tomorrow, deepens 20mb in 24 hrs with a position near northern Lake Huron 7am Saturday. Moderate hatch looks good, maybe extended east some into northern GA based on this run.

[WeatherNC]

Per Allan's h5 tropical maps, 996 central MO 7am tomorrow, 975 SE Ontario 7am Saturday, 1003 mb Meso low east of Athens GA same time, lack of sufficient heating at the surface could be a big issue given timing.

[HWY316wx]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=webbriefing

It's not everyday that you see these web briefings about a major outbreak of severe wx. My son and MIL are going to be right in the middle of it.

[WeatherNC]

CIPS analog guidance supports a major svr wx outbreak tomorrow going into Saturday...

http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php

[shaggy]

CIPS analog guidance supports a major svr wx outbreak tomorrow going into Saturday...

http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php

I'm hoping for something decent. I'm off both days and will be chasing anything within a few counties.

[eyewall]

If I didn't have a gig tomorrow evening I would be on the way to TN. Hopefully we can get something in central NC this spring (outside of HSLC nocturnal cheesers).

[Solak]

I know there's not much talk here in the SE about tomorrow, but what little there is is 100% better than the p*ssing match going on on the main board. *sigh*

[eyewall]

I'm hoping for something decent. I'm off both days and will be chasing anything within a few counties.

I would be on the way to TN right now if I were you .

[Solak]

From NWS Nashville... in part...

.DISCUSSION...A BIG SEVERE WX OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR MID TN

FRIDAY. STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE

HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES TO POST A MODERATE RISK FOR

SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE MID STATE. THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE

WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE SEVERE THREAT WE HAD

YESTERDAY...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES SINCE

APRIL 27, 2011. THIS EVENT COULD BE ONE OF THE GREATER IMPACT

EVENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE STRONGLY ADVISED

TO TAKE THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY.

[shaggy]

I would be on the way to TN right now if I were you .

I should have clarified that I am off both afternoons. I'm pulling a 12 hour nightshift tonight getting off at 730am. So i'll go home and sleep till noon and hope and pray I see some sort of storm fire somewhere nearby that looks chase worthy.

[ryan1234]

I would be willing to bet that the SPC puts out a High Risk for their 2am update. I really hope that we see something here in the Piedmont. These last 2 events were awful. I barely even got any rain from them. Kinda gets old after a while. But hey, 3rd times a charm..... right?

[brettjrob]

00z NAM is really pumping the instability for western and middle TN and down into northern MS/AL. Low-level shear, while not perfect (ala 4/27), is more than enough when dealing with such anomalously unstable conditions for this region in late winter. Right now I'd place the bullseye for the tornado threat in a 100-mile radius around BNA, although areas closer to the low (S IN, SW OH) will have the advantage of stronger and more backed low-level flow.

TBH, I'd be a little surprised if SPC pulls out a HIGH on the first outlook tonight. If surface-H85 winds were forecast to be backed about 20-30 more degrees throughout the entire warm sector, I'd be more on board with that idea.

[JoMo]

SPC outlook is out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Day 1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1142 PM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL

GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM

THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS

MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

A VERY STRONG JET CORE AT MID-HIGH LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS

OF 110KT AS IT OVERSPREADS SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL OK EARLY THIS

MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD AND DEEPEN OVER MO INTO CNTRL IL BY MID DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RECOVERING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN OK ATTM

WITH 60F DEW POINTS NOW SPREADING NORTH OF I-40. THIS MOISTURE

SURGE WILL ADVECT INTO MO BY SUNRISE AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS

EXPECTED TO INDUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AHEAD OF SFC LOW

ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION NEWD

WITH RECOVERING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SEVERE WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO

SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL

LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT EARLY...A FEW TORNADOES ARE

POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS MOISTENS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY BOUNDARY

LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SFC COLD

FRONT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SUCH THAT PRE-FRONTAL

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z

ACROSS IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN IL

SUGGEST MUCAPE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WITHIN AN

OTHERWISE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS PRE-FRONTAL

CONVECTION SHOULD THEN EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS

IND/KY BEFORE DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS TN INTO

NRN AL/MS.

AFTER THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/OH

VALLEY REGION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES

AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN

PLACE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO

POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM

ACROSS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. WITH TIME A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE

COULD EMERGE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

...GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL

BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE

SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES.

SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH

FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR

MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

...LOWER MI...

WITH THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LOWER MI

AFTER 00Z THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF LOW

TOPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS

SUGGEST ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF

COLD FRONT BUT WITH INTENSE FORCING IT/S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A

SEVERE SQUALL LINE COULD EXTEND INTO SERN LOWER MI DURING THE

EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW/SMITH.. 03/02/2012

[19jpc]

This situation appears to be becoming a very serious one. The latest data continues to show a possible major outbreak. Let's just hope this doesn't play out.

[Dunkman]

I'm completely shocked this thread still has 1 page. The Ohio Valley version is at 8. I guess the winter beat the weather enjoyment out of a lot of people, or we've lost most of our mets or something. Anyway, new SPC outlook was as strong as a moderate can be and an upgrade to high risk seems likely tomorrow given the probabilities in this outlook and the size of the moderate area.