HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Continuation from here: http://www.americanw.../page__st__1365 May the qpf be with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 BOS, KGAY futility destroyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I am still waiting for this storm to stab me in the back when I am not looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Congratulations man! Thank your lucky stars you aren't going to a certain university in SW CT...lol. If there was any confusion there I didn't apply to Cornell...I was saying how I might have/might not if I applied. I got into Lyndon/Plymouth/Oswego with some $ from each. Thanks though...just wanted to clear that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If there was any confusion there I didn't apply to Cornell...I was saying how I might have/might now if I applied. I got into Lyndon/Plymouth/Oswego with some $ from each. Thanks though...just wanted to clear that up. Oswego has the most snow. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM is really dry in the mid levels Wednesday night. Probably a little overdone with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM prints out just short of 1.00" by 0z Friday for BOS, but probably 0.3" of that is wasted to warm BL during the day Thursday. Ratios would probably be less than 10:1 so 4-6" out that runs seems reasonable with more NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Back to the nam. Looks like the vort travels under sne. Thought this run looked good for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Oswego has the most snow. Congrats! LOL...that of course will be a factor in my decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Classic Walt Drag "cold tuck" look to end it in E/NE MA on the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Classic Walt Drag "cold tuck" look to end it in E/NE MA on the inverted trough. You invoked his name.... that is good cold tuck for luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM keeps weenie snow falling in BOS through 12z Fri, lol...all the way to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Still flurries at hour 84 in E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 hard for me to believe bos actually gets 4-6 in reality this year. it just seems like c'mon ...don't we have to thread the needle w/ teleconnectors being what they are..esp. along the coast. i'm chillin at attitash ......and (got a inch in about 45 mins today) and flyin out of bos on thur noon. i find it hard to believe i'll have flight probs on the water during the day thursday....but is this really a serious threat to flight in the middle of the day thurs for bos. hell i hope the flight is cancled . i'd like to stay up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's good the H5 vorts go underneath SNE. I wish the other guidance would do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Will Ray be pissed or glad? Would this be enough to a) put him past his record... be significant enough for him to be happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM keeps weenie snow falling in BOS through 12z Fri, lol...all the way to the end. If only...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 hard for me to believe bos actually gets 4-6 in reality this year. it just seems like c'mon ...don't we have to thread the needle w/ teleconnectors being what they are..esp. along the coast. i'm chillin at attitash ......and (got a inch in about 45 mins today) and flyin out of bos on thur noon. i find it hard to believe i'll have flight probs on the water during the day thursday....but is this really a serious threat to flight in the middle of the day thurs for bos. hell i hope the flight is cancled . i'd like to stay up here Teleconnectors and analogs showed potential for SWFEs...we mentioned that over a week ago when the pattern was switching to more Nina-like...we knew cutters would be a risk but also that we'd have a few shots at SWFEs...more active pattern. It doesn't have to be a -NAO block and +PNA for BOS to get snow...they got 52 inches of snow in 2007-2008 when the NAO was negative for 4 days the entire winter and the PNA was frequently negative. Its late in the season so there is risk in BOS of not getting much because of poorer BL if the precip intensity is crap...but it can snow in this type of pattern, we've seen it many times before. This type of pattern just doesn't favor big KU type coastal storms...but it does favor SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 hese are always fun to post...silly NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 LOL...that of course will be a factor in my decision. My mom went to Oswego in the late 60s/early 70s and said it was amazing for snow. Great place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 LOL...that of course will be a factor in my decision. i graduated from Lyndon...oswego was my other choice...really didn't know about plymouth state at the time...if i could go back and do it again...Lyndon wouldn't be in the mix...wasn't impressed at all...i would apply to oswego (because i love snow) and whatever that good school is in Oklahoma...cause i love severe weather...and i would apply to plymouth as my school closest to home instead of lyndon...best of luck with everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM is definitely a weenie run for this joke winter. Close to 1.2" here...we flirt with sleet, but hopefully its mostly snow. I'm feeling that cold high isn't getting enough respect on the GFS and the NAM may even trend a little more south ultimately. That initial front end surge may get suppressed more, but the flip side is the snow sets up better Wed night and Thur.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nam is always good for weenie runs, To bad its the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Congrats ORH to Ray... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My mom went to Oswego in the late 60s/early 70s and said it was amazing for snow. Great place. i graduated from Lyndon...oswego was my other choice...really didn't know about plymouth state at the time...if i could go back and do it again...Lyndon wouldn't be in the mix...wasn't impressed at all...i would apply to oswego (because i love snow) and whatever that good school is in Oklahoma...cause i love severe weather...and i would apply to plymouth as my school closest to home instead of lyndon...best of luck with everything... Thanks guys...I'll pm you guys if I have any other questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hey it's Al Roker's alma mater.. Maybe she was there around the same time? LOL My mom went to Oswego in the late 60s/early 70s and said it was amazing for snow. Great place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Congrats me under that little pink patch in ENY. LOL Now if only it was reality. or edit ..under that light blue 10-12" slightly under the pink. Congrats ORH to Ray... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i graduated from Lyndon...oswego was my other choice...really didn't know about plymouth state at the time...if i could go back and do it again...Lyndon wouldn't be in the mix...wasn't impressed at all...i would apply to oswego (because i love snow) and whatever that good school is in Oklahoma...cause i love severe weather...and i would apply to plymouth as my school closest to home instead of lyndon...best of luck with everything... Did you graduate as a MET major? Because honestly, if I wasn't a MET/EJA major I would definitely not be here right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice run for many there. I don't think it makes me warning criteria here considering the long duration, but what a wintry couple of days this would be for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 WEDNESDAY`S EVENT...MODEL GUIDANCE HERE APPEARS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT AND WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THAT DOES NOT FAVOR SNOW FOR THE OKX CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A WARM FRONT/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND WHILE PCPN STARTS AS SNOW...WARM NOSE ALOFT SUGGESTS A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...KEPT SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS DEW POINTS WHICH RESULTS IN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TAILORED AMOUNTS BACK SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 3 INCHES IN ORANGE COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH...BUT WANT TO AVOID FORECAST FLIP-FLOP. WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NGT WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TOWARD MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...IT SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY COLD COULD WORK IT`S WAY BACK IN. INLAND NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGEST SOME ICE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED SOME MIX. ALSO DID INCLUDE FOG WITH THE LIGHT FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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