CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREFs warmed a tick on the front end but spread drastically increased in isotherms and the QPF was bumped up a solid amount...not exactly sure how to interpret that, but it likely means there is more front end thump and also certainly more disagreement on how far north the mid-level warmth makes it. The 12 hr QPF didn't change too much to me. Is that what you looked at? I thought it ticked a bit south, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 12 hr QPF didn't change to much to me. Is that what you looked at? I thought it ticked a bit south, if anything. I'm comparing 54h on 21z to 60h on 15z. All of SNE is covered in over 0.50" of qpf by 03z Thu...15z run had no 0.50" in SNE except maybe over LL's head in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm comparing 54h on 21z to 60h on 15z. All of SNE is covered in over 0.50" of qpf by 03z Thu...15z run had no 0.50" in SNE except maybe over LL's head in SW CT. How much snow would we see across northern CT with the front end thumb before the changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm comparing 54h on 21z to 60h on 15z. All of SNE is covered in over 0.50" of qpf by 03z Thu...15z run had no 0.50" in SNE except maybe over LL's head in SW CT. I see what you did. I was looking at the 12 hr period where it would precip the most. It looked like the thump was faster but also further north..maybe a combo although I suppose that would go hand in hand. The spread was nuts. Must be some warmer members there? The trend today was to get the WAA thump further north which is what I hoped for. Better shot to get acc snow with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM already looks warmer at 18, not to mention weaker HP to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I see what you did. I was looking at the 12 hr period where it would precip the most. It looked like the thump was faster but also further north..maybe a combo although I suppose that would go hand in hand. The spread was nuts. Must be some warmer members there? The trend today was to get the WAA thump further north which is what I hoped for. Better shot to get acc snow with that. Yeah I was just looking at the front end stuff...if you go deeper into the event you probably bring more mesoscale aspect into the equation for qpf because it incorporates the more fickle round 2 of this system which a lot of models disagree on...some like the NAM (as tip mentioned) try to almost congeal the two phases and then end everything with a 6-10 hour SN- inverted trough. But that middle ground where the front end thump is trying to congeal with the 700mb deformation area as the low gets more strung out will create more uncertainty in the qpf. But yeah, the front end stuff prob sped up a tad, but the high to the north trended stronger...compare 54 and 60 hours on the two runs...the 1028mb isobar north of Maine got much larger...so I think that would help to make the front end thump more robust when you combine it with the ML punch from the SW not weakening or even slightly strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'd take the SREFs and run if I could, but it's not really in the wheelhouse perhaps quite yet..although the solution would jive with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah I was just looking at the front end stuff...if you go deeper into the event you probably bring more mesoscale aspect into the equation for qpf because it incorporates the more fickle round 2 of this system which a lot of models disagree on...some like the NAM (as tip mentioned) try to almost congeal the two phases and then end everything with a 6-10 hour SN- inverted trough. But that middle ground where the front end thump is trying to congeal with the 700mb deformation area as the low gets more strung out will create more uncertainty in the qpf. But yeah, the front end stuff prob sped up a tad, but the high to the north trended stronger...compare 54 and 60 hours on the two runs...the 1028mb isobar north of Maine got much larger...so I think that would help to make the front end thump more robust when you combine it with the ML punch from the SW not weakening or even slightly strengthening. That's why I think the area maybe just north of you to Dendrite (just as a ball park region) has a decent shot of doing well. The 850 WF might be on the Pike so despite a min in QPF, I could see regeneration of snows to the north in that deformation area. Even the euro, which didn't have high QPF in that area..had that signal too. I love to see the NAM do what it did at 18z or move south, but for now..I think I'll try to push for a good WAA thump. The fact that I think the euro may nudge north a bit would still help areas near the Pike out. You must love all the erly inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 WTF? Why do the snowfall prob maps on ewall has some probs for 12''+ across central MA but nothing for 8'' probs...that has to be an error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREFs look good for 4-6" from part 1, looks like part 2 is a N of MA/NH border event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREF probs did bump up a bit. Good probs from WIil to Ray on north. I'm on par with Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREF probs did bump up a bit. Good probs from WIil to Ray on north. I'm on par with Kevin. Actually the 1" probs dropped a bit, but the 4" probs increased south. Probably some members really liking the WAA thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 WTF? Why do the snowfall prob maps on ewall has some probs for 12''+ across central MA but nothing for 8'' probs...that has to be an error? Error, but just because there's no 8+ probs doesn't mean there wouldn't be 8+ somewhere, if you look at all the consecutive frames that have decent 12 hr probs for 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 That's why I think the area maybe just north of you to Dendrite (just as a ball park region) has a decent shot of doing well. The 850 WF might be on the Pike so despite a min in QPF, I could see regeneration of snows to the north in that deformation area. Even the euro, which didn't have high QPF in that area..had that signal too. I love to see the NAM do what it did at 18z or move south, but for now..I think I'll try to push for a good WAA thump. The fact that I think the euro may nudge north a bit would still help areas near the Pike out. You must love all the erly inflow. Yeah if we can stay cold enough in the MLs, then it would be a really good event for the ORH hills..esp the northern half where the spine goes up sharply....probably bigger totals than one would think based on qpf...that ENE flow with all the low level moisture is ideal for some upslope enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Error, but just because there's no 8+ probs doesn't mean there wouldn't be 8+ somewhere, if you look at all the consecutive frames that have decent 12 hr probs for 4+ I would think there def would be some 8''+ totals somewhere given the look of the SREFs and 18z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I would think there def would be some 8''+ totals somewhere given the look of the SREFs and 18z models. Those 12 inch probs are artifacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I would think there def would be some 8''+ totals somewhere given the look of the SREFs and 18z models. Yeah probably somewhere in Southern VT and NH and over into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I would think there def would be some 8''+ totals somewhere given the look of the SREFs and 18z models. SREFs do have an area of low prob for 8" for N ORH county and S NH...like in the 10% range. Those are the only real ones on there...the other random bullseyes that appear are fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 There also seems to be a decent high prob for MPM/Greenfield area (4"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREFs do have an area of low prob for 8" for N ORH county and S NH...like in the 10% range. Those are the only real ones on there...the other random bullseyes that appear are fake. Yeah but the srefs show 12 hour probs...if we got 8+ it would be over more then 12 hours most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREFs do have an area of low prob for 8" for N ORH county and S NH...like in the 10% range. Those are the only real ones on there...the other random bullseyes that appear are fake. The ones at hour 66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00z nam looks good for 4-6" even south to BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 HP ends up retrograding a tad to stomp down on the system more compared to 18z...it's also differently tilted relative to 18z (more E/W vs. N/S) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM was a good hit for CT with the WAA thump, but it dropped off north of the CT/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00z nam looks good for 4-6" even south to BDL. nam much better for nw jersey as well, surface colder to . hopefully its picking up on cad better. if gfs follows somewhat remotely colder than ill get excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00z nam looks good for 4-6" even south to BDL. Yeah NAM looks quite good for many north of HFD-PVD-BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM was a good hit for CT with the WAA thump, but it dropped off north of the CT/MA border. .5 line makes it to about ORH/BOX/MPM line...but man if the nam is right Kev/Ryan thumps from 1pm-7pm...hell of an evening commute in CT if the nam is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 BOS gets like 4-6" this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ripping pretty good for BOS at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 21z eta at 1st glance looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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