2012 ENSO Thread

[Harry]

We ignore the ONI table (as NOAA told me they were doing)...that's where we go lol. The weeklies averaged +0.6 rounded. So, for the 3rd straight trimonth, the table has a much cooler number than what the weeklies suggest. JJA averaged +0.5 per the weeklies. However, it was only +0.1 in this table. Granted, the ONI table uses different SST data than is used by the weeklies. However, that is much further off than normal.

I STRONGLY suspect this has to do with the updated normals.

Yeah there is clearly some erroneous data in there on the ONI table...that SST dataset must be off for some reason since about early summer.

You could expect two datasets to be slightly off, but if both are considered viable, you would never see that much of a discrepency.

See my explanation below.

They changed the base (normals):

"Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño-3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.

There will be multiple centered 30-year base periods that will be used to define the Oceanic Niño index (as a departure from average or “anomaly”). These 30-year base periods will be used to calculate the anomalies for successive 5-year periods in the historical record:..."

"So, ONI values during 1950-1955 will be based on the 1936-1965 base period, ONI values during 1956-1960 will be based on the 1941-1970 base period, and so on and so forth.

In real-time operations, the past 30-year base period (e.g. 1981-2010) will continue to be used to compute the departure from average."

Now keep in mind that what the NEW NORMALS means is that say the ONI reading of +0.3 they show for JAS would have been more like +0.5/0.6 or so ( Somewhere around that ) LAST year and prior. I suspect the weeklies have not been updated to the *new* normals yet ( can someone confirm this? ) and thus why they are not matching up to the ONI Table.

Thus if we were still using last years normals the chances are much better we would atleast see a weak nino.

I need not mention the possible implication this has on winter outlooks and such if one does not adjust.

[CoastalWx]

Well we'll see if this has any effect or happens as predicted.

[JBG]

I STRONGLY suspect this has to do with the updated normals.

The problem with the "updated" normals is that the period 1950-55 behaved largely like one long Niña; little snow, and 100+ readings in NYC during most of the summers.

[GaWx]

I STRONGLY suspect this has to do with the updated normals.

See my explanation below.

Now keep in mind that what the NEW NORMALS means is that say the ONI reading of +0.3 they show for JAS would have been more like +0.5/0.6 or so ( Somewhere around that ) LAST year and prior. I suspect the weeklies have not been updated to the *new* normals yet ( can someone confirm this? ) and thus why they are not matching up to the ONI Table.

Thus if we were still using last years normals the chances are much better we would atleast see a weak nino.

I need not mention the possible implication this has on winter outlooks and such if one does not adjust.

Harry,

Excellent point about the new normals although it doesn't look as if it is quite as big an impact as you suggest. Perhaps the weeklies are using the old normals?? I don't know. I guess I could call that lady with whom I spoke and ask her. When comparing the prior ONI table with this new one, it looks like the new normals are ~0.15 C warmer for 2001+. So, the +0.3 would be more like +0.4 to +0.5. There seems to be more to it than just differences in normals as the JJA ONI of +0.1 was 0.4 cooler than the average of the weeklies. Part of it is probably that the two SST datasets are actually different. The ONI uses ERSST data (produced by NCDC at Asheville), which isn't available weekly. The weeklies use OISST data. The problem with OISST is that it goes back only to 1980.

Anyway, she told me that they were consulting Asheville to investigate the reason for the bigger than normal differences between ONI/weeklies and that they were then using the weeklies/pretty much ignoring the ONI. I talked to her in September.

[Ground Scouring]

The upcoming westerly wind burst should result in substantial warming over the next few weeks. The latest SSTA data suggest the cooling trend has begun to be reversed in NINO 1 + 2 and 3.

[wxmx]

The upcoming westerly wind burst should result in substantial warming over the next few weeks. The latest SSTA data suggest the cooling trend has begun to be reversed in NINO 1 + 2 and 3.

Followed by the supressed phase (enhanced low level easterlies) of the MJO according to the CFS, which will probably erase most of the warming by the end November. I think we are past peak warming.

[GaWx]

1) Per the latest Euro, I'm still not seeing any string of solid negative SOI's through at least 10/27.

2) There does seem to be decent warming occuring in 3.4. I roughly estimate that 3.4 warmed ther better part of 0.1 C just between the 5 day averaged maps ending on 10/14 and the 5 day averaged maps ending on 10/15. The western third of 3.4 is near to above the weak Nino border of +0.5 (range ~+0.5 to +0.6) while the eastern 2/3 is within the +0.25 to +0.5 range based on the maps I'm using. The overall average for 3.4 is ~+0.42 vs. yesterday's ~+0.35. The continuing confusion about what maps use what normals is making this difficult to assess. Regardless, there has been decent warming recently no matter what normals are assumed.

Note that this warming is occurring without the help of a solidly negative SOI string although I think that at least today's is negative (they haven't been released yet). The subsurface is pretty warm under the western 3.4.

Map used (time sensitive link):

http://tao.noaa.gov/...5day_latest.png

[GaWx]

1) Per the latest Euro, I'm still not seeing any string of solid negative SOI's through at least 10/27.

2) There does seem to be decent warming occuring in 3.4. I roughly estimate that 3.4 warmed ther better part of 0.1 C just between the 5 day averaged maps ending on 10/14 and the 5 day averaged maps ending on 10/15. The western third of 3.4 is near to above the weak Nino border of +0.5 (range ~+0.5 to +0.6) while the eastern 2/3 is within the +0.25 to +0.5 range based on the maps I'm using. The overall average for 3.4 is ~+0.42 vs. yesterday's ~+0.35. The continuing confusion about what maps use what normals is making this difficult to assess. Regardless, there has been decent warming recently no matter what normals are assumed.

Note that this warming is occurring without the help of a solidly negative SOI string although I think that at least today's is negative (they haven't been released yet). The subsurface is pretty warm under the western 3.4.

Map used (time sensitive link):

http://tao.noaa.gov/...5day_latest.png

Using the same link, I have the five day average ending on 10/16 at ~+0.46 vs. ~+0.42 for the five day average ending 10/15 and ~+0.35 for the five day avg ending 10/14. So, it has warmed some more since yesterday's map. Keep in mind that different maps use different normals. Regardless, it has warmed about 0.1 C in 3.4 over the last two days of these five day maps. I'm quite confident that next Monday's 3.4 weekly will be warmer than +0.1. I think there's a decent chance for it to reach +0.3 if it doesn't cool back quickly.

[uncle W]

lastest JMA index is a plus 9 again...Still pretty high for this time of year...

[wxmx]

Not as drastic as the CFS with the unborn Niño, but the Euro seasonal ensembles still imply we are past peak, with a winter neutral warm period

[GaWx]

Using the same link, I have the five day average ending on 10/16 at ~+0.46 vs. ~+0.42 for the five day average ending 10/15 and ~+0.35 for the five day avg ending 10/14. So, it has warmed some more since yesterday's map. Keep in mind that different maps use different normals. Regardless, it has warmed about 0.1 C in 3.4 over the last two days of these five day maps. I'm quite confident that next Monday's 3.4 weekly will be warmer than +0.1. I think there's a decent chance for it to reach +0.3 if it doesn't cool back quickly.

It hasn't cooled back according to that link. So, I'm predicting +0.3 in 3.4 in Monday's weekly release of anom.'s vs. +0.1 in the prior one. Weak Nino chances are still alive and well imo for the fall/winter peak ONIwise although they're obviously lower than they were before the recent cooldown. However, another cooldown soon would kill it. A general warming trend over the next 4-6 weeks to at least ~+0.7 for the peak weekly would likely be needed along with no sig. cooldown to follow until at least well into Dec.

[tacoman25]

La la la la la nada.

Not that it really matters at this point whether we get an official ONI peak for weak Nino status or just warmish neutral. Both are all over the place in terms of the winters that have occurred with those ENSO conditions.

[GaWx]

It hasn't cooled back according to that link. So, I'm predicting +0.3 in 3.4 in Monday's weekly release of anom.'s vs. +0.1 in the prior one. Weak Nino chances are still alive and well imo for the fall/winter peak ONIwise although they're obviously lower than they were before the recent cooldown. However, another cooldown soon would kill it. A general warming trend over the next 4-6 weeks to at least ~+0.7 for the peak weekly would likely be needed along with no sig. cooldown to follow until at least well into Dec.

It, indeed, warmed to +0.3. To get an official weak Nino peak ONIwise, a general warming trend over the next 4-6 weeks to at least ~+0.7 for the peak weekly during the upcoming period would likely be needed along with no sig. cooldown to follow until at least well into Dec. Keep hope alive (for those who want it). Nino 3.4 has been pretty steady for the last few 5 day averaged maps.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[GaWx]

It, indeed, warmed to +0.3. To get an official weak Nino peak ONIwise, a general warming trend over the next 4-6 weeks to at least ~+0.7 for the peak weekly during the upcoming period would likely be needed along with no sig. cooldown to follow until at least well into Dec. Keep hope alive (for those who want it). Nino 3.4 has been pretty steady for the last few 5 day averaged maps.

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for

Nino 3.4 has resumed warming after having steadied out for the last few days based on five day averages. I estimate that it has just warmed 0.06 C (not 0.6C) and looks to warm more as the week progresses. The warming is occuring from two directions: from the NE and from the west (a squeeze of sorts). So, a further warming in next Monday's number from the just reported +0.3 C is starting to become more likely. We're currently in a crucial time as far as getting a weak Nino peak this fall/winter.

Warming in western 3.4 is also strongly suggested on this animation:

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

[Snow Wizard]

Wow. The denial is just as bad as I've heard about on here. The Nino is dead folks!

1. 30 day SOI values have been positive for weeks now.

2. Current daily SOI values over plus 10.

3. MJO stuck in octants 1 and 2 for the next two weeks (ninaish)

4. Subsurface warm anomalies have completely faded under the eastern ENSO regions.

5. GLAAM has been negative forever now, and is currently crashing.

6. The September MEI was lower than has ever been recorded in a season with a Nino that successfully emerged.

The demise of the El Nino was caused by persistent anomalous high pressure off the coast of South America, which caused strong upwelling in nino 1+ 2 and anomalous trade winds in nino 3. That feature is strongly related to the relentless negative GLAAM, which in turn is a sign the atmosphere has thumbed its nose at this wanna be El Nino.

The winter should be neutral which means everybody should get a turn at some good winter weather this year. Nothing wrong with that.

[Snow Wizard]

The map below shows the surface high pressure configuration that was so lethal to this El Nino. In recent days that feature has relaxed, but is progged to return in the week two period which should resume the cooling in Nino 3.4. Another thing to consider is that strong negative GLAAM episodes have foreshadowed times that Nino 3.4 took a big hit in the current episode. We are currently in the midst of another GLAAM crash. Eventually the easterly momentum will propagate to the surface thus causing more destruction to the El Nino.

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 has resumed warming after having steadied out for the last few days based on five day averages. I estimate that it has just warmed 0.06 C (not 0.6C) and looks to warm more as the week progresses. The warming is occuring from two directions: from the NE and from the west (a squeeze of sorts). So, a further warming in next Monday's number from the just reported +0.3 C is starting to become more likely. We're currently in a crucial time as far as getting a weak Nino peak this fall/winter.

Warming in western 3.4 is also strongly suggested on this animation:

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

Folks,

The weak Nino may have been struggling to stay alive long enough to make it official, but it is not dead yet by any means. Nino 3.4 warmed further. Today's release (for the prior cal. week) has it at +0.5 vs. +0.3 last week and +0.1 two weeks ago. Niño 4 just warmed from +0.5 to +0.7. More net warming over the next 2-3 weeks will be crucial to getting an official weak Nino peak this fall/winter.

[wxmx]

Short and long term forecasts show a supressed phase of the MJO crossing the Pacific basin. There might be some slight warming around ENSO 3.4 next 3-4 days, followed by a halt in the warming trend, and a slow strengthening of the easterlies for the next 4-5 weeks. That should lower the SSTAs a generalized 0.2-0.3C by early-mid December. None of the Euro/Eurosip/CFS models show a Niño anymore.

[GaWx]

Short and long term forecasts show a supressed phase of the MJO crossing the Pacific basin. There might be some slight warming around ENSO 3.4 next 3-4 days, followed by a halt in the warming trend, and a slow strengthening of the easterlies for the next 4-5 weeks. That should lower the SSTAs a generalized 0.2-0.3C by early-mid December. None of the Euro/Eurosip/CFS models show a Niño anymore.

wxmx,

The models missed the recent cooldown that was right in front of them. I'd think that these same models could miss a nearterm warming that is sig. enough to get us a weak nino. We'll see.

Meanwhile, looking at today's 5 day averaged 3.4 SST anom. map, there is now noticeable warming occurring in Nino 3.4 west of 150W and to the west of Nino 3.4 in Nino 4. I expect this to translate into further warming in the days to come. As a result as of now, I'm already leaning to further warming in the upcoming Monday weekly release for 3.4 to a minimum of +0.6. The weak Nino is far from dead and is putting up a good fight to come back just in time. We'll see how it evolves over the next 2-3 weeks, a very crucial period.

[wxmx]

wxmx,

The models missed the recent cooldown that was right in front of them. I'd think that these same models could miss a nearterm warming that is sig. enough to get us a weak nino. We'll see.

Meanwhile, looking at today's 5 day averaged 3.4 SST anom. map, there is now noticeable warming occurring in Nnio 3.4 west of 150W and to the west of Nino 3.4 in Nino 4. I expect this to translate into further warming in the days to come. As a result as of now, I'm already leaning to further warming in the upcoming Monday weekly release for 3.4 to a minimum of +0.6. The weak Nino is far from dead and is putting up a good fight to come back just in time. We'll see how it evolves over the next 2-3 weeks, a very crucial period.

Larry,

Yes, models can be wrong, but this time I doubt they will. There's a lot of support from mid range forecasts of planetary waves. We are currently in a different climate regime from 15 years ago. Niños have to fight the low GWO/AAM and cold -PDO which promote cooler than average SSTAs in the tropical Pacific. In the short term there will very probably be some enhancement in the easterlies, especially near the dateline. Like you said in your previous post, if it can't make it next few weeks (which looking at different variables will probably have a net cooling effect), it will be nearly impossible for a winter time Niño.

[chademer07]

Wow. The denial is just as bad as I've heard about on here. The Nino is dead folks!

1. 30 day SOI values have been positive for weeks now.

2. Current daily SOI values over plus 10.

3. MJO stuck in octants 1 and 2 for the next two weeks (ninaish)

4. Subsurface warm anomalies have completely faded under the eastern ENSO regions.

5. GLAAM has been negative forever now, and is currently crashing.

6. The September MEI was lower than has ever been recorded in a season with a Nino that successfully emerged.

The demise of the El Nino was caused by persistent anomalous high pressure off the coast of South America, which caused strong upwelling in nino 1+ 2 and anomalous trade winds in nino 3. That feature is strongly related to the relentless negative GLAAM, which in turn is a sign the atmosphere has thumbed its nose at this wanna be El Nino.

The winter should be neutral which means everybody should get a turn at some good winter weather this year. Nothing wrong with that.

The demise of El Nino is by no means an absolute lock. Sure it has taken a hit and will most likely end up warm neutral but to say some are in denial is simply outlandish. I've been reading this forum as well as others and noticed that you have a penchant for finding any evidence you possibly can to either support a la nina or argue against a nino. Sure the GLAAM has been negative for a while now but the warm waters have been (albeit barely) hanging on. Although a weak nino is only a small possibility it is still in the cards and to say this thing is dead with certainty is ill advised.

[thenewbigmack]

The demise of El Nino is by no means an absolute lock. Sure it has taken a hit and will most likely end up warm neutral but to say some are in denial is simply outlandish. I've been reading this forum as well as others and noticed that you have a penchant for finding any evidence you possibly can to either support a la nina or argue against a nino. Sure the GLAAM has been negative for a while now but the warm waters have been (albeit barely) hanging on. Although a weak nino is only a small possibility it is still in the cards and to say this thing is dead with certainty is ill advised.

Everyone has a bias here and there, but there are many people on here grasping at any piece of evidence possible for this Nino to make a last minute return. You can't call out Snow Wiz when some of the above posts are just as outlandish.

[GaWx]

Everyone has a bias here and there, but there are many people on here grasping at any piece of evidence possible for this Nino to make a last minute return. You can't call out Snow Wiz when some of the above posts are just as outlandish.

Big Mac,

Snow Wiz is saying that there's essentially ZERO chance for a weak Nino to return at about the last minute. I'm saying that there's still SOME chance at a weak Nino's return. Niño 3.4 has warmed 0.4 during the last two weeks to the edge of Nino territory and it appears to be warming even further based on my daily look at the SST anom. maps. How can you say that my posts saying a weak Nino still has some chance is just as outlandish as saying it has NO chance? That is the point Chademer is trying to make.

[40/70 Benchmark]

SW def. has bias toward la Nina....been that way since I came across him on a west-centric board a few years back. Many folks have biases, though...odds are def. against a Nino, but we'll see.

[wxmx]

Big Mac,

Snow Wiz is saying that there's essentially ZERO chance for a weak Nino to return at about the last minute. I'm saying that there's still SOME chance at a weak Nino's return. Niño 3.4 has warmed 0.4 during the last two weeks to the edge of Nino territory and it appears to be warming even further based on my daily look at the SST anom. maps. How can you say that my posts saying a weak Nino still has some chance is just as outlandish as saying it has NO chance? That is the point Chademer is trying to make.

About chances... I think Larry and I think (correct me Larry if I'm wrong) no El Niño is a higher probability than an El Niño, the difference is that I think the probabilities are lower than what I perceive Larry probabilities are. We haven't (at least I haven't lately) put out numbers, but my current assessment is <20% chance of an El Niño...but certainly not zero chance.

[tacoman25]

Again, I don't think it makes much difference at this point if we end up with a +neutral peak (most likely, in the .4-.5 range for ONI) or if we squeak out an official weak Nino (slightly higher for slightly longer). There are larger factors at play for this winter than ENSO.

[uncle W]

Again, I don't think it makes much difference at this point if we end up with a +neutral peak (most likely, in the .4-.5 range for ONI) or if we squeak out an official weak Nino (slightly higher for slightly longer). There are larger factors at play for this winter than ENSO.

one of those factors is the AO/NAO which are both negative...

[GaWx]

About chances... I think Larry and I think (correct me Larry if I'm wrong) no El Niño is a higher probability than an El Niño, the difference is that I think the probabilities are lower than what I perceive Larry probabilities are. We haven't (at least I haven't lately) put out numbers, but my current assessment is <20% chance of an El Niño...but certainly not zero chance.

Based strictly on the weeklies (NOT the ONI table, itself, which has been out of whack per NOAA, themselves), which have JJA, JAS, and ASO all at ~+0.5, I'm going with about a 40% chance as of now that there will be an official weak El Nino ONIwise. In other words, I'm going with a 40% chance that SON and OND (based strictly on the weeklies) will also be +0.5+ because five trimonths in a row must be +0.5+ to make it an official Nino based on ONI. If 3.4 continues warming steadily for the next week or so, those chances will increase. If it stops warming soon and doesn't resume fairly quickly, those chances will drop.

Looking at today's five day averaged 3.4 SST anom. map, it warmed a good bit (~.06 C) since just yesterday's map. It appears that it will very likely warm even further over the next couple of days at least. Therefore, I'm now pretty confident that next Monday's # (for the week centered on 10/31) will be at least +0.6 C (vs. the prior weekly of +0.5) as it may even reach +0.7 to +0.8 C.

What would be needed to get SON's weeklies to average +0.5? November's weeklies would need to average ~+0.75 C. Considering the recent rather sig. rises, that would seemingly be doable as of now. Now, let's say that Nov.'s weeklies do average +0.75. What would be needed in Dec. to get OND's weeklies to average +0.5? Only an avg. of ~+0.35.

Bottom line: warming over the next 3 weeks or so, including the 10/31 weekly, will be very crucial for the weak Nino's chances. Getting a weak Nino isn't as far-fetched as some here are making it out to be.

Looking at the SOI per my interpretation of the Euro, it does look to finally drop to fairly solid negatives for 11/5-7 with the lowest being on 11/6, likely in the -20's. Afterward, it looks to rise back up.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Today's 5 day averaged maps show a second day in a row of impressive warming in Nino 3.4. The chance for a return of El Nino and official ONI based El Nino based on weeklies continues to increase as this warming continues. I had it at 40% in yesterday's post. If this impressive warming keeps up for a couple more days, I'll consider raising it to close to 50%. More details later.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Today's 5 day averaged maps show a second day in a row of impressive warming in Nino 3.4. The chance for a return of El Nino and official ONI based El Nino based on weeklies continues to increase as this warming continues. I had it at 40% in yesterday's post. If this impressive warming keeps up for a couple more days, I'll consider raising it to close to 50%. More details later.

Here are two maps (5 day SST anom. averages) that clearly ilustrate how much Nino 3.4 (which is bounded by 120W, 170 W, 5N and 5S) has warmed during just ten days of maps (focus on the "anomalies" portion of the maps). Interestingly enough, the warming has been occurring without the aid of significant westerly surface wind anomalies. Note there are only some smallish westerly wind anomaly arrows in western 3.4 and virtually none in eastern 3.4 on the 10/21 map; and only some small westerly anomalies near 140W and virtually none elsewhere in 3.4 on the 10/31 map:

10/17-21:

10/27-31: (that is a +1.0 C anomaly area near 160W that has just appeared with this map...first time +1.0 has appeared in Nino 3.4 in weeks; best warming has been from 140W to 170W; I think a rise from +0.5 this past Monday to +0.7 or maybe up to +0.8 is becoming likely for next Monday's weekly 3.4 anomaly)