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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

This has been a rough winter for Kevin including mental breakdowns and large forecasting busts. Tough.

I have 1-3" for mby points north.

Yeah I'm pretty much going with that for Union and up to here....I may lean more toward 2-4" for around here, but the Euro is still in the back of my mind....we'll have to watch for that potential 1-2" per hour band if some of the modeling is correct. I think we'll have a much better idea by this evening. I mean, if we get 35 dbz going over BDL for 2-3 hours, that could bust a 1-3" forecast pretty quick actually.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah I'm pretty much going with that for Union and up to here....I may lean more toward 2-4" for around here, but the Euro is still in the back of my mind....we'll have to watch for that potential 1-2" per hour band if some of the modeling is correct. I think we'll have a much better idea by this evening. I mean, if we get 35 dbz going over BDL for 2-3 hours, that could bust a 1-3" forecast pretty quick actually.

lol indeed it may :snowman:

And it's not out of the realm of possibility!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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If you look at the euro, it has a weak frontal wave move well to the south, will little support in the form of a s/w and PVA. It forms a low once the better forcing approaches towards 00z, but by then it is too late. Look at the NAM and even GFS. It doesn't have a strong low, but it looks like the s/w that rapidly moves in, perhaps augments the forcing in SNE. Even so, it doesn't quite explain the discrepancy between the euro and the other guidance. The euro basically has weak forcing the whole time, until the main s/w comes in. That's what bothers me. SREFs have that s/w like the NAM and GFS.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I didn't look at 850 winds, but is that what it had?

yeah. the thermal fields are really pretty similar to the south, but the NAM is colder over C and NNE. so i think the nam ends up a bit more robust with the 850 low and resulting low level inflow. the euro just takes a weak jet ene off the mid-atlantic...with really very little meaningful waa.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

wow

/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0009.120224T0600Z-120225T0000Z/

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-

WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...

NORTHAMPTON...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE

416 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST

FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PARTS OF WESTERN

AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM

EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CHESHIRE COUNTY AND WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN

NEW HAMPSHIRE...FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN

MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND WESTERN HAMPDEN

COUNTY IN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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I'll admit..I've been the worst forecaster on here all winter. No hiding from that.

this must be killing you right now. i know that every last ounce of you is dying just to throw your cards down and go all in for some accumulating snow tonight...but you are trying so so hard to be rationale and not bet on this round.

c'mon...one more time won't hurt. you could win the whole pot.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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LOL at NAM, it changes back over N ORH county and SW NH to a snow bomb at 33 hours and dumps another 4-6".

Yep… wow

Basically…overrunning snows break out across the area overnight and comes down at a solid moderate clip through the AM commute…

Mid level warm layers come in and flips it to pingers and light rain – maybe some ice in interior valleys , and also just below the cloud line at middle Watchusett type els….

There may then be a lull of sorts, just before an explosion of heavy action takes place all at once associated with near coastal bombogenesis… Real fast – 8 mb is 6 hours!!!!! The low explodes from the NJ coast and cuts across roughly the CC Canal then heads on up into Boston Harbor by 00z tomorrow night - down to almost 980mbs soon thereafter. During that 4-5 hour period of explosive cyclogenesis, a warning level snow falls in a narrow stripe from N CT to S NH.

Well, all I want to say to this is be careful throwing this run out.

Why? The NAM is superior when focussing cyclogenesis against steep low level baroclinic walls. This was schooled heavily during Dec 2005 event. We have a nascent thickness packing settling into the just S of SNE today on the heels of the heretofore discussed exiting deepening low up into the Maritimes... along comes a 45 vort max running just on the polarward side of that thickness packing - which intrinsically means you have a very upright frontal slope; q-g forcing over top that as huge evacuation parameters nose in aloft means the you maximize UVM. Fast UVM = fast surface development.

Frontogenic forcing is also probably extreme in a narrow corridor on the NW side of that bombing low..

That's all what we are seeing on this run in all - I'm not sure I have a problem with that if these 2 factors below verify:

1) Thickness packing along and just S of the the South Coast;

2) Very powerful v-max with associated 135kt 500mb doing a right entrance right over the top/just polarward side of that steep frontal slope.

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