famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Central Park has had an almost unprecedentadly(sp?) warm winter this year. Just how warm? Well, ranking all years for the period December 1-February 16, we get this... Rank AveT Winter 1 41.3 2001-2002 2 41.0 1931-1932 3 40.1 2011-2012 4 39.3 1949-1950 5 39.2 1998-1999 6 39.1 1990-1991 7 38.9 1997-1998 8 38.4 1948-1949 9 38.1 2005-2006 10 37.6 1952-1953 3rd! Yup, 3rd! Here are the 10 warmest listings (December 1- February 28): Rank AveT Winter 1 41.6 2001-2002 2 40.2 1931-1932 3 39.6 1997-1998 4 39.1 1990-1991 5 38.6 1998-1999 6 38.5 1948-1949 7 38.1 1952-1953 8 37.9 1982-1983 9 37.7 1996-1997 10 37.6 1949-1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Do central park records go back to the 19th century? If so, then this is astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 and not forseen by many..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 well it was another 01-02 winter..only difference was it was wetter..a winter I would like to erase from my memory..time to move on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1931-32 must have been insane. How was the city that warm without the UHI we have today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I took these photos on Wednesday 2/15. I've never seen them this early. Last year it was late March. Nothing has happened since Wednesday to dissuade their early appearance: It's pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 4 years in the 90s on that top 10 list, also a couple from the late 40s/early 50s -- +PDO/+AMO/+NAO times overall. Basically a 01-02 repeat this winter temp wise, and like that year, no one's long range outlook even suggested the possbility of it being this unbelievably warm (at least not that I saw, and my forecast certainly busted this winter). The signs became fairly clear by December, but as far as official LR outlooks in the fall, I don't remember any calling for this. Even Roger Smith will bust on the cold Feb/late winter. Next time we see an Alaskan vortex -- I'm booking the first flight to Valdez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 this year compared to the warmest on record...We probably will set the record for the least amount of days with a minimum of 32 degrees or lower... 32 degrees or lower. min days. 30 2011-12 47 2001-02 49 1997-98 52 1998-99 53 1982-83 52 1990-91 58 1952-53 59 1972-73 60 1957-58 60 1994-95 67 2005-06 63 2006-07 64 2007-08 86 2008-09 63 2009-10 84 2010-11 max days 2 1952-53 3 1997-98 3 2001-02 4 1998-99 5 1931-32 6 2011-12 6 2007-08 7 1990-91 7 1992-93 8 1974-75 9 1948-49 9 1991-92 10 2005-06 ....................................................................................................................................................... Warmest winter minumums... 2001-02...19 1931-32...15 1974-75...15 1997-98...14 2000-01...14 2005-06...14 1936-37...13 2009-10...13 2011-12...13 1952-53...12 1982-83...12 ............................................................................................................................................................................... The warmest 30 day coldest period... season....30 day ave... 1997-98.....37.3......... 2011-12.....37.0 1948-49.....36.3......... 1931-32.....35.8......... 2007-08.....35.7......... 1952-53.....35.5......... 2001-02.....35.4......... 1936-37.....34.9......... 1990-91.....34.5......... 1932-33.....33.9......... 1950-51.....33.0......... 1974-75.....33.0......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Back in October when I got nearly 7" of snow I had a feeling it wasn't going to bode well for winter. Winters with early out of season snows usually don't work out too well in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Back in October when I got nearly 7" of snow I had a feeling it wasn't going to bode well for winter. Winters with early out of season snows usually don't work out too well in this area. Quite true except the other two examples I'm aware of, October 1972 and October 1979 were El Niños. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Back in October when I got nearly 7" of snow I had a feeling it wasn't going to bode well for winter. Winters with early out of season snows usually don't work out too well in this area. Seems to be true on on the flip side too. Seems when there is an early heatwave (90's in May or early June), then it usually doesn't repeat again during summer. I have no data on that but it's something that sticks in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Seems to be true on on the flip side too. Seems when there is an early heatwave (90's in May or early June), then it usually doesn't repeat again during summer. I have no data on that but it's something that sticks in my head. There are examples both ways but in general you're right. In 1962 (99 in May), 1965 (90 in May), 1967 (major June heat wave), 1969 (97 on Memorial Day, 3 in a row near or over 90), 1971 (early June heat wave), 1974 (hot May-early June), 1976 (96 on Easter Sunday), 1979 (early May official heat wave), 1984 (major early June heat wave), 1986 (hot May-early July ), 1992 (hot late May), 1996 (hot late May), 2000 (early May official heat wave), 2008 (major early June heat wave) and 2009 (late April official heat wave) this held true.In 1970 (over 90 second Saturday in May), 1977 (earlies 90+) until 1991, 1987 (hot second or third weekend in May), 1988 (hot Memorial Day weekend) 1991 (earliest 90+ until 2010, and hot May), 1993 (hot May), 2001 (hot Mothers' Day weekend), 2002 (96 in mid-April, 3 days in a row over 90), and 2010 (earliest 90+ to date and hot June) we were pretty much hot, wire to wire, through the summer. I do agree though that early heat is usually a bad sign for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Seems to be true on on the flip side too. Seems when there is an early heatwave (90's in May or early June), then it usually doesn't repeat again during summer. I have no data on that but it's something that sticks in my head. there was early heat in 2002 and 2010 and the Summer was hot...there was early heat in 2000 and 2009 and the Summer was cool... here are the warmest spring temperatures 3/1 to 5/31... 1876................87 1877................88 1878................84 1879................86 1880................96 1881................93 1882................80 1883................82 1884................86 1885................87 1886................86 1887................87 1888................84 1889................91 1890................81 1891................82 1892................81 1893................85 1894................85 1895................96 1896................92 1897................81 1898................86 1899................88 1900................90 1901................85 1902................86 1903................89 1904................89 1905................81 1906................90 1907................85 1908................88 1909................83 1910................82 1911................86 1912................89 1913................89 1914................95 1915................92 1916................81 1917................84 1918................91 1919................92 1920................82 1921................89 1922................86 1923................86 1924................75 1925................91 1926................83 1927................90 1928................80 1929................93 1930................91 1931................93 1932................90 1933................90 1934................90 1935................89 1936................92 1937................93 1938................89 1939................96 1940................83 1941................96 1942................92 1943................89 1944................92 1945................86 1946................87 1947................86 1948................87 1949................92 1950................82 1951................90 1952................83 1953................90 1954................85 1955................90 1956................89 1957................87 1958................82 1959................94 1960................87 1961................85 1962................99 1963................86 1964................94 1965................94 1966................85 1967................81 1968................82 1969................97 1970................93 1971................85 1972................86 1973................86 1974................92 1975................93 1976................96 1977................92 1978................90 1979................94 1980................90 1981................87 1982................84 1983................85 1984................85 1985................88 1986................94 1987................97 1988................91 1989................86 1990................91 1991................93 1992................93 1993................92 1994................91 1995................87 1996................96 1997................83 1998................87 1999................89 2000................93 2001................92 2002................96 2003................88 2004................87 2005................87 2006................88 2007................91 2008................84 2009................92 2010................92 2011................89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Do central park records go back to the 19th century? If so, then this is astounding. Yes. They go back to 1869. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes. They go back to 1869. But not always in the same location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Do central park records go back to the 19th century? If so, then this is astounding. It's not astounding at all since we are only using records from a time period that was colder. It's no surprise that despite the record extending several decades into the 19th century, we are still a top ten warmest winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is Al Gore laughing some where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's not astounding at all since we are only using records from a time period that was colder. It's no surprise that despite the record extending several decades into the 19th century, we are still a top ten warmest winter. So much for climate cycles then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is Al Gore laughing some where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is Al Gore laughing some where? how would he explain eastern europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 from 1993 onward we've had a ton of great winters, compared to the prior 25 years..... but there have been plenty of horrific suck jobs since '93 too, and for 2012 to be the king of all horrific suck jobs is saying something. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 how would he explain eastern europe? GLOBAL warming, not Eastern Europe warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So much for climate cycles then? Did I say something factually wrong? Including data from the 19th century will not increase the likelihood of this year not being in the top ten since all we are doing is including years from a time period that was overall cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Another record to consider - is the combination of warmest , least snowiest and driest February on record - right now NYC is # 1 driest with .40 through yesterday and .02 snow which is a top 10 and should hold at .02 and in the top 3 right now for temps with a good chance of being number 1 by months end..,,,probably a good chance of a top 10 seasonal combo also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 http://climate.rutge...%20target=jan12 The past 12 months have averaged 55.8°. This is 2.6° above the 1981-2010 mean and is the 3rd warmest consecutive 12-month average on record in the Garden State (Table 1). Only the 12-month intervals ending in September 2002 and October 2002 were warmer. An impressive 23 of the top 25 such intervals have occurred since late 1997. According to mgerb, if you extended the averaging period to a 24-month sliding window, the latest one blows every previous one out of the water. Cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The warmth definitely has been winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 So far in Feb we have had ONE day that wasn't a positive departure (Feb 12). That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 So far in Feb we have had ONE day that wasn't a positive departure (Feb 12). That's it. A pretty Fab Feb, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 A pretty Fab Feb, eh? hahaha, burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 as of yesterday NYC had 499 degree days for feb which equals out to slightly above 40 - going to be close with a few years for the warmest Warmest 40.6 2002/1998/1984 40.1 1954 40.0 1997/1991 39.9 1976 39.8 1990 Precip NYC is the # 1 driest for Feb with .40 BUT there are a couple more chances this month for precip so that record is in doubt. Snowfall is 0.2 which is # 6 least snowiest - this has a good chance of holding ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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