MichaelScott Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not a bad hit for LYH, but still way weaker than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Human nature, it's been so bad for all of us this winter....I was really pulling for all of you guys. The NAM and GFS have really been out of it with the handling of s/w's. I'm not sure how or why but they've been consistently unable to handle the speed of the various s/w's even with incredibly short leads of 12 or 18 hours. Worse they don't seem to "catch up" but are continually behind the Euro by about a run. Anyway, NAM IMO is now getting nearer the correct solution. I hope some of you get snow. EDIT: GFS will do the same. It was going that way with the s/w's at 18z. I was too. I wanted someone to get clobbered, I don't care who. Such a pretty s/w. Someone deserves it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Lol. Like I said, people have gotten giddy over the NCEP model suite, andNCEP basically got their azzes handed to them on s/w handling. This was an initial screwjob for NE, but as someone who saw the handling of the s/w on the models, I figured I should give insight down here, seeing as thats how its trending. seriously man, do you really think people need the insight that the euro looks like it may be right. you are just rubbing salt in the wound, cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 but the Euro showed decent snow for DCA/BWI before any of the other models did at this rate, the precip will be so light in VA/WVA that they will have temp problems at least it's seemingly over tonight instead of tomorrow It's a matter of which model was least bad at any given time. Like I said I've noticed over the last 3-4 weeks the NCEP models run about 12 hours behind the Euro and sadly a couple of times up here even the Euro adjusted to the stinky side closer in. So even with the Euro we've had a steadily moving target a couple of times towards the bad end. Hoping that's not the case, any snow i good snow and I hope a lot of you get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not a bad hit for LYH, but still way weaker than the 18z. hate that the snow comes in later in the day-- colder aloft, but surface warms. That, in theory could be a slushy inch or two on the grass despite just under .4 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the sudden influx of northern posters is worse than this suppressed run of the NAM We've been down this road a bunch of times this winter. We're just sharing what we've witnessed maybe 10 times already when there was a snowier discrepancy with the NCEP models vs the Euro. Inevitably the Euro wins most of the time and even it has been too optimistic recently. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Barely gets srn md this run.Not good when the most bullish model backs down. I would throw in the towel but I'm all out of towels this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 We've been down this road a bunch of times this winter. We're just sharing what we've witnessed maybe 10 times already when there was a snowier discrepancy with the NCEP models vs the Euro. Inevitably the Euro wins most of the time and even it has been too optimistic recently. Good luck. Yeah, most of us down here are new to this whole weather board and model thing, so thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 seriously man, do you really think people need the insight that the euro looks like it may be right. you are just rubbing salt in the wound, cmon Just analysis. I went through this ordeal two days ago up north. On another note, I want to know the differences in the globals and NCEP to get to the point where the handling is so much different. Interesting research for me possibly upcoming with senior thesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 hate that the snow comes in later in the day-- colder aloft, but surface warms. That, in theory could be a slushy inch or two on the grass despite just under .4 qpf. I hope you cash in on our misfortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Lol. Like I said, people have gotten giddy over the NCEP model suites both here and all over the eastern US, and NCEP basically got their azzes handed to them on s/w handling. This was an initial screwjob for NE, but as someone who saw the handling of the s/w on the models, I figured I should give insight down here, seeing as thats how its trending. It sucks, and people don't wanna hear it, but its the truth that there were signs of this occurring. This winter's been below normal everywhere and its tough to stay level headed when you've been snow starved. I don't know why you are getting so much sh*t from people for giving us your wonderful wisdom. If it wasn't for you pointing out to us little brains down here that the Euro is a superior guidance tool and that the NAM sucks and is likely to be wrong I am not sure what we would do. We were all expecting 8-12" of snow here because because none of us in this region have any skill or the ability to look at the h5 flow and notice the problems. Now if you could just travel down here to show us all how to tie our shoes we would appreciate it. THanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the sudden influx of northern posters is worse than this suppressed run of the NAM They are here because they are rooting for us though...lol. The fact that they are here to share their keen insight and emotional support right when things are circling the drain is purely a coincidence ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM is uglier than Burt and Ernie doing the Chicken Dance. What a Winter of Malcontent. Crummy December, crummy January, crummy half of February and then whiffff to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just analysis. I went through this ordeal two days ago up north. On another note, I want to know the differences in the globals and NCEP to get to the point where the handling is so much different. Interesting research for me possibly upcoming with senior thesis. Data assimilation techniques. I would bet it is probably far too advanced to even try and study for a Sr. project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I hope you cash in on our misfortune. Exactly how SNE feels at this point. Most won't admit it, but we want someone to get hit. We hoped it'd be DC, but I guess now its western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Data assimilation techniques. I would bet it is probably far too advanced to even try and study for a Sr. project. Yeah I figured, but even just to scratch the surface for some sort of research would be interesting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Data assimilation techniques. I would bet it is probably far too advanced to even try and study for a Sr. project. Maybe partly. But honestly, the nogaps and Canadian use 4dvar. It's way more complex than thinking there is some magic bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is no disrespect to the NWS/NOAA guys....But the NAM Is a terrible model.....this storm was done last night at 1:15 am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I hope you cash in on our misfortune. Nam is close to 5 inches. Not sure -- it's close to the EC. I'd be happy with that-- but the more intense event was appealing. I'm thinking that last vort sneaking in from the west could be cool-- if it's a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah I figured, but even just to scratch the surface for some sort of research would be interesting for me. It's way out of your league. You think we don't try to emulate what they do or invest in our own new technology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I dont see the point of meterologists.....all we need is the european. It dominates everyone and everything. I will never listen to a Met again. I will just look at the european and crush anyone's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Maybe partly. But honestly, the nogaps and Canadian use 4dvar. It's way more complex than thinking there is some magic bullet. Yes I know that, but it is a start. Convective parameterizations could very well be another, I am not sure. From my standpoint, NCEP guidance seemed to struggle the most with the intensity of that southern stream anomaly more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LWX still holding as of 930 ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 930 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 DCZ001-VAZ054-181000- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 930 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 .REST OF TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH... BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's way out of your league. You think we don't try to emulate what they do or invest in our own new technology? I know. The whole ECMWF data assimilation process is totally private correct? Maybe a stupid question, but it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is no disrespect to the NWS/NOAA guys....But the NAM Is a terrible model.....this storm was done last night at 1:15 am.... You're right Matt, it's very unfortunate, not sure what's gone wrong but it's just bad. It's way out of your league. You think we don't try to emulate what they do or invest in our own new technology? DTK, what do you think is behind the problems though? It's not like we're talking 36-48 hour lead times...lately the NCEP models seem unable to pin a reasonable forecast position on s/w's at 12 hours. I don't ever remember that happening this consistently until the last few months. Whatever the processes are, the NCEP models can't pin the speed down on the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is no disrespect to the NWS/NOAA guys....But the NAM Is a terrible model.....this storm was done last night at 1:15 am.... LOL trust me we all know that. The NAM is generally almost worthless, even its MOS guidance is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ETA 21z also a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know. The whole ECMWF data assimilation process is totally private correct? Maybe a stupid question, but it's interesting. It's not just data assimilation. What they do is not really a secret. They readily present their work (past, present, and future plans). They are well funded and very focused on the global NWP problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's not just data assimilation. What they do is not really a secret. They readily present their work (past, present, and future plans). They are well funded and very focused on the global NWP problem. Cool thanks for sharing! Just an interesting topic to just think about as a MET student. Sorry if i have pestered you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just analysis. I went through this ordeal two days ago up north. On another note, I want to know the differences in the globals and NCEP to get to the point where the handling is so much different. Interesting research for me possibly upcoming with senior thesis. No clue what you mean by "differences in the globals and NCEP". Makes no sense. This is a very unstable pattern...they weren't handling the shortwaves "so much" differently. Small differences in this pattern make large differences in the outcome, especially WRT sensible weather. This is no disrespect to the NWS/NOAA guys....But the NAM Is a terrible model.....this storm was done last night at 1:15 am.... That's kind...but it is disrespect to the NCEP developers who work on the NAM. Every model is useful if you know how to use them, and it's ignorant IMO to constantly be blathering on about how worthless it is. Back to the weather, I'm not sure why the towel is being thrown in almost 48 hours in advance. Is it more likely than not to miss DC? Yes. Is moving north 100 miles or so in the next 36 hours impossible? Hell no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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