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Feb. 18-20, 2012 Disco/Analysis


Poimen

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Surprised no one has started a thread for this yet. Let's get this discussion going. At a minimum our mountain brethren look good, perhaps some of us low country southerners can get in on some wintry action, too. Discuss. :snowwindow:

9lhwbgpre.gif

I have to say this apparently you are bad luck. You open this thread and there is no snow for anyone lol with the GFS run. Unless I read it wrong.

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From MRX this morning in their AFD.

UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL FOR FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING. ANOTHER

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. AT THE

SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN

MEXICO/TEXAS WILL PRODUCE CYCLO-GENESIS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS

COAST SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OR EAST

NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST

AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE

WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW. WILL NEED

TO WATCH THE EXACT PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HOW COLD AIR GETS

PULLED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

06z wasn't a good run at all, but model consensus has been pretty good so far. JKL also mentioned that it was a favorable snow situation for Eastern Kentucky as it was being modeled.

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I have to say this apparently you are bad luck. You open this thread and there is no snow for anyone lol with the GFS run. Unless I read it wrong.

Yeah, well one off hour run 5-6 days out will not make or break this thread! ;) Seriously, I recognize our chances as a whole are weak, but we still have another 48 hours or so before we can even begin to make heads or tails of any specifics. But I am confident we have some sort of storm to track, so let's start tracking!

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6z GFS slows down our system....in fact, the look aloft is a lot different than previous runs with actually some short wave ridging over top of the system as it enters the Lower MS Valley as opposed to another vort diving into the southern piece of energy.

Due to the slower movement on the 6z GFS, it allows the trough out west to carve out too closely to our system, and therefore, minors it out.

Just put up the normal morning discussion and video here on the blog.

Here's a snapshot from the 0z GFS vs. the 6z GFS....big differences.

post-390-0-95433300-1329219314.png

post-390-0-99308200-1329219321.png

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I was just reviewing KSGP's input at the beginning of thw work day. They are not impressed with snow chances even just mentioning a mix in the mountains.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z

ON SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF LAYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND

RELATIVELY FLAT/ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE SE CONUS. A POTENT LOOKING

SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN CONUS ON SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY

SUNDAY. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE

PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE WILL SLOW TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER

THE FCST AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE END OF

THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN GOOD OVERALL

AGREEMENT WRT THE UPPER LVL PATTERN EVOLUTION.

AT THE SFC...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF

THE DEPARTING SFC FRONT. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS NOW GENERATE A

SFC LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE LOW TO OUR

DOORSTEP BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6

TO 12HRS FASTER WITH LOWS PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE GFS...HOWEVER BOTH

MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AND

DRY THE REGION OUT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.

ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS LOW ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS

FAR OUT...HOWEVER IS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE THEIR CURRENT

SCENARIO...WE COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER MOST OF

THE CWFA. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SOME SNOW OR WINTRY

MIX...BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE LOOKING LIKE MOSTLY RAIN IF THE

CURRENT THICKNESS TRENDS HOLD UP. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT NEAR NORMAL

IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AND THEN DROP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY

AS THE SFC LOW GENERATES NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

VALUES WILL THEN LIKELY REBOUND BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY AS HEIGHTS

RISE AND THE LOW LVL FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

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6z GFS slows down our system....in fact, the look aloft is a lot different than previous runs with actually some short wave ridging over top of the system as it enters the Lower MS Valley as opposed to another vort diving into the southern piece of energy.

Due to the slower movement on the 6z GFS, it allows the trough out west to carve out too closely to our system, and therefore, minors it out.

Just put up the normal morning discussion and video here on the blog.

Here's a snapshot from the 0z GFS vs. the 6z GFS....big differences.

Great video Matt....also noticed at the end of the 6z NAM our energy up north looks more consolidated.

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6z GFS slows down our system....in fact, the look aloft is a lot different than previous runs with actually some short wave ridging over top of the system as it enters the Lower MS Valley as opposed to another vort diving into the southern piece of energy.

Due to the slower movement on the 6z GFS, it allows the trough out west to carve out too closely to our system, and therefore, minors it out.

Just put up the normal morning discussion and video here on the blog.

Here's a snapshot from the 0z GFS vs. the 6z GFS....big differences.

post-390-0-95433300-1329219314.png

post-390-0-99308200-1329219321.png

Great video this morning as always..

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Great video Matt....also noticed at the end of the 6z NAM our energy up north looks more consolidated.

Yeah, timing of the NAM is a little slower than the Euro....certainly a well-defined southern piece of energy.

Great video this morning as always..

Thanks!

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Great video Matt....also noticed at the end of the 6z NAM our energy up north looks more consolidated.

Yeah, timing of the NAM is a little slower than the Euro....certainly a well-defined southern piece of energy.

Great video this morning as always..

Thanks!

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My take on the 06z gfs is a little different. While it really doesn't show a storm, it does show hp being dominant and squashing the energy. If there is 1028 hp to the north, all we'll need is lp to develop and move to our south (and up the coast would be nice). Regardless, this just seems like typical gfs "wobble". I suspect somewhere between the 06z gfs and the 00z euro will be correct. If you take a blend of those 2, you're not too far from the 00z gfs which was pretty good.

TW

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6z GFS slows down our system....in fact, the look aloft is a lot different than previous runs with actually some short wave ridging over top of the system as it enters the Lower MS Valley as opposed to another vort diving into the southern piece of energy.

Due to the slower movement on the 6z GFS, it allows the trough out west to carve out too closely to our system, and therefore, minors it out.

Just put up the normal morning discussion and video here on the blog.

Here's a snapshot from the 0z GFS vs. the 6z GFS....big differences.

post-390-0-95433300-1329219314.png

post-390-0-99308200-1329219321.png

Thanks for the videos! Great info as always.

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From RAH:

MODELS ARE NOW IN ROUGH AGREEMENT IN RUNNING A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW

IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA

SUNDAY (THE MORE NORTH ECMWF DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME) AND ITS PATH

BEYOND THAT IS QUITE SUSPECT. HOW CLOSE THE LOW HUGS THE COAST WILL

DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE

TIMING. EVEN USING THE STRONGER MORE NORTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF... IT

LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED... WITH SATURATION OF THE

AIR COLUMN ABOVE MINUS TWELVE CELSIUS LACKING IN THE MODELS AT

THIS TIME. WILL LEAN ON THE SLOWER... LESS DEEP LOW PRESSURE

DEPICTION OF THE SLOWER MODELS AND LIMIT A RAIN CHANCE TO SUNDAY

AT THIS TIME. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE TOO

WARM IF RAIN DEVELOPS AND A STRONGER LOW WITH A MORE NORTH TRACK

VERIFIES. CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

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WE continue to see lots of model waffling and likely will till the energy is on shore which will likely be later today. Keep in mind too that this energy moves into the Pacific Northwest and dives into the Southwest and cuts off. Keep in mind to the system that will kick this out and determine the timing is still back in the Aleutians and wont be onshore till Friday. So we may see some timin differences arising from that as well.

Here is the thing to keep in mind. This is still in the 4-5 day range. The ECMWF has for several runs now shown a storm, it has oscillated though in each run on the track and timing of the system. Therefore, my confidence is pretty high that the 6z run of the GFS is a bad solution and the 00z type of scenario is more likely to happen.

I will post a more in-depth writeup on the examiner later today.

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WE continue to see lots of model waffling and likely will till the energy is on shore which will likely be later today. Keep in mind too that this energy moves into the Pacific Northwest and dives into the Southwest and cuts off. Keep in mind to the system that will kick this out and determine the timing is still back in the Aleutians and wont be onshore till Friday. So we may see some timin differences arising from that as well.

Here is the thing to keep in mind. This is still in the 4-5 day range. The ECMWF has for several runs now shown a storm, it has oscillated though in each run on the track and timing of the system. Therefore, my confidence is pretty high that the 6z run of the GFS is a bad solution and the 00z type of scenario is more likely to happen.

I will post a more in-depth writeup on the examiner later today.

Question running through my mind....it seems like "all the players are on the field" as everyone says and there seems to be some good consistency and trending with the models to at least show some "chance" at least for some type of frozen precipitation in the NC piedmont. Why then does the NWS so suredly call for rain? It makes me think they know something we don't? Inside 5 days I like to at least see NWS call for a rain/snow mix or at least mention the chance of frozen precip in their forecast.

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The 06z GFS ensemble mean is about 6 hours slower than the 00z GFS ensemble mean with a little less precip and overall weaker look.

But hey, there's a heart shaped HP over the lakes on the 06z ensemble mean so maybe we get some love today.

00z

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12132.gif

06z

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12132.gif

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Question running through my mind....it seems like "all the players are on the field" as everyone says and there seems to be some good consistency and trending with the models to at least show some "chance" at least for some type of frozen precipitation in the NC piedmont. Why then does the NWS so suredly call for rain? It makes me think they know something we don't? Inside 5 days I like to at least see NWS call for a rain/snow mix or at least mention the chance of frozen precip in their forecast.

Typical NWS process of hedging toward climo and gradually reeling it in as you get closer. If it goes poof, then no big deal. If a winter storm comes to be, they will gradually start hinting 3-4 days out. Rarely if ever do they mention snow/ice more than 3-4 days out unless there's much more cold air around. While I hate thier process, it has served them well. Still don't like it though.

TW

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The 06z DGEX is fascinating in that it keeps our vort closed off all the way through northern Alabama. First time I've seen that. Again, just something to watch for on the 12z runs.

http://raleighwx.ame...00mbvort126.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...00mbvort144.gif

Ok, I'm going to do it......wasn't the late February 2004 event from a closed low storm??? Ok, I just killed all our chances. I just wonder if there were any similarities to the synoptic set up from that storm.

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