N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Ehh...as long as it tracks S of us we still have a chance. Verbatim, 850s are below 0C, but the BL is torching fast. But yeah, not a great run for anybody for that matter. If we could get some cyclogenesis, maybe we could save the BL. Otherwise it's snowing at 850, but raining and 36 at ground level. i like the consistency of showing something in that time frame .....it's a thur nite /fri am deal so where about 120 hrs out ...not bad maybe a lil something tues pm as well. arctic chlll tomo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think the storm on sat/sun has a better shot then the Thurs. Night deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think the storm on sat/sun has a better shot then the Thurs. Night deal. What storm is that? Nothing on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I need 19" to get to 50" for the season. That's my goal now. Hah Every week my goal goes down. What I am overdue for is a bonafide plowable event. I haven't see one since Feb 27, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I need 19" to get to 50" for the season. That's my goal now. Hah Every week my goal goes down. The big recalibration of expectations. A necessary thing at times.06 GFS still holds for something Thurs night and nada over the weekend. But, Thursday night is lighter/warmer on 06 than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I like that HPC still has a low on Friday tucked in off Jersey and under LI. They have had that there for 2 or 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Tough to tell on the Euro...but it looks like it keeps the streams seperate and the southern stream goes out south of SNE..but airmassmis marginal...and it would appear it's rain along coast and maybe rain changing to snow inland..or just sloppy wet snow. Either way doesn;t look like a big storm and would very much be a springtime (elevational type storm.) I wouldn't get too pumped up over this one. It does take a good track..but the airmass is tricky.And it's Thursday night into Friday..not next weekend like I;ve seen some folks posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I try to forget that decade, There were some poor winters in those years Just concentrate on the few good ones, starting with 81-82. 86-87 was decent, too, though January-centric (plus the late April surprise.) 83-84 was a monster in N.Maine, but not so good elsewhere. After that? Pick a different decade, I guess. Early GFS has 3/4" of cold rain for AUG, mix in RUM but only half as much qpf. Odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Tough to tell on the Euro...but it looks like it keeps the streams seperate and the southern stream goes out south of SNE..but airmassmis marginal...and it would appear it's rain along coast and maybe rain changing to snow inland..or just sloppy wet snow. Either way doesn;t look like a big storm and would very much be a springtime (elevational type storm.) I wouldn't get too pumped up over this one. It does take a good track..but the airmass is tricky.And it's Thursday night into Friday..not next weekend like I;ve seen some folks posting I'm with you on this one... airmass below like 3,000ft is quite marginal even up here. BTV has chance of rain/snow which seems like a good route right now. If those two streams do phase though this could be warmer and wetter. Can't buy a synoptic snowstorm these days. We had a decent run from just before Christmas through January, but February has had absolutely nothing and we are like halfway through the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Could use a southward trend on guidance for this one. Lots of time for hashing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Huh?, responded to Wills question. Wasn't against you, but it had that weenie hr 192 prof were you commented on how it had like 2-3' of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Boston hasn't seen a real snow event since last January We had a pretty good storm on the beginning of Feb 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Still looks pretty crappy on some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 One snowstorm next weekend and that should do it. Zero lawn cleanup this year. Cleaned it up after winter ended in early November. Lawns will green up in record time this year. leaf out mid-late March ..black flies starting April 1 ish...not much mud due to Ginx's ongoing severe drought..Uconn out of the tourney...baseball season almost upon us and another Yankees division championship while the Sox flounder around .500. lots to look forward to Did you see where UCONN can not qualify for the 2013 NCAA tourney due to poor grades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It is all about the ridging in the DS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Still looks pretty crappy on some guidance. I'm going to emerge in March with the record in tact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 16 days left in February to get a good snow event... leap year adds a day also. I'm going to emerge in March with the record in tact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 16 days left in February to get a good snow event... leap year adds a day also. I need 5" to miss the record this month....I'd be suprised if that were to be the case at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 850's stay below freezing here on friday on the 06z GFS, Weak system, Looks like some light snows, Not a big deal though, Looking at the GFS again it does try to get a low going late in the GOM so there could be some enhancement there but with it being several days away we will still see some changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 is there a bigger one that follows or is that it? If we get a DS ridging and get nothing then this winter will have found yet another way to screw us. I think we get something mod-big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This threat is crap. NNE will probably cash in though. Euro has temps well into the 30s in all of SNE for most of the event. This will likely fail as every threat since October has. Go fail or go home this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 is there a bigger one that follows or is that it? If we get a DS ridging and get nothing then this winter will have found yet another way to screw us. I think we get something mod-big Nothing until the next week but that is out there in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 but Jer if there is ridging to the north you know it will trend colder. We are due for a high qpf event also, so that is part of my optimism for the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This threat is crap. NNE will probably cash in though. Euro has temps well into the 30s in all of SNE for most of the event. This will likely fail as every threat since October has. Go fail or go home this winter. Its marginal at best south of here, This crap winter looks to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 but Jer if there is ridging to the north you know it will trend colder. We are due for a high qpf event also, so that is part of my optimism for the next 10 days or so. It's not an arctic high, so who cares......you will probably be cold enough. Some folks just keep trying to sell these marginal threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I guess I'm a misguided eternal optimist. The MJO is traversing some good areas 1-2..3. Lots of southern stream s/w's pushing through in the next two weeks and various models hinting at some -NAO. I'd bet on 5 inches between now and March 1st if I was a betting man. I need 5" to miss the record this month....I'd be suprised if that were to be the case at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 i am optimistic. Do I have to drive this G**d**m bus? I will, but I'm warning you....I'm not a good driver...the road will be rocky but I will get us to the promised land! maybe. big winter. big snow. all new england. dt jb lc hm. love you long time. bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I guess I'm a misguided eternal optimist. The MJO is traversing some good areas 1-2..3. Lots of southern stream s/w's pushing through in the next two weeks and various models hinting at some -NAO. I'd bet on 5 inches between now and March 1st if I was a betting man. Deal. Loser donates another $20 to the board. Optimism is for cheerleaders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I guess I'm a misguided eternal optimist. The MJO is traversing some good areas 1-2..3. Lots of southern stream s/w's pushing through in the next two weeks and various models hinting at some -NAO. I'd bet on 5 inches between now and March 1st if I was a betting man. Thank you! let me add... mjo amplitude meriodinal expression... 5 inches by Sunday, 15 by the following Friday. mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I guess I'm a misguided eternal optimist. The MJO is traversing some good areas 1-2..3. Lots of southern stream s/w's pushing through in the next two weeks and various models hinting at some -NAO. I'd bet on 5 inches between now and March 1st if I was a betting man. Models have a pretty good series of similar type storms to next friadys going forward so i see where there will be several more chances at snow for most folks here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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