NoVaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 1-2" would be the best storm of the year for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I was about 30 seconds away from starting a thread. 12z NAM rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like the onset in the metro areas is around noon. Temps prior are mid-upper 30s with DPs in the upper 20s. Column is below zero down to at least 975mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Sim radar at 30 and 33 aka 18z and 21z looks good enough. H5 at 33 to me looks good... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Sim radar at 30 aka 18z looks good enough Indeed. Heaviest stripe of precip is right through DC proper. NAM has surface temps of maybe 35 with DPs near that, but if it is really coming down ok, that may be high. This is actually a pretty nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Indeed. Heaviest stripe of precip is right through DC proper. NAM has surface temps of maybe 35 with DPs near that, but if it is really coming down ok, that may be high. This is actually a pretty nice run. Indeed... I made a few edits on my post btw. h5 near Norfolk at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0.25 QPF DCA bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, not too bad. If we could squeeze a couple inches out of this, that'd be by far the best snow of the winter for me in Towson... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like the onset in the metro areas is around noon. Temps prior are mid-upper 30s with DPs in the upper 20s. Column is below zero down to at least 975mb. the thermal profiles from DC north easily support all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Too bad it's the NAM. I've really turned against the NAM with the last few "events". If the GFS comes in like that, then I'll get excited (relatively speaking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 At 4pm, in the middle of the heaviest precip. Tenuous, but a snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For Kevin Thanks! Looks like the onset in the metro areas is around noon. Temps prior are mid-upper 30s with DPs in the upper 20s. Column is below zero down to at least 975mb. Another Commutapocolypse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I don't think even Wes could find anything bad about this run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, not too bad. If we could squeeze a couple inches out of this, that'd be by far the best snow of the winter for me in Towson... what part of Towson are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0.25 QPF DCA bullseye Looks like over 0.3" for both DCA and BWI. I think we can safely call this the "best case scenario" run, and probably gives us our upper bound on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I don't think even Wes could find anything bad about this run..... then let me.....worst time of the day other than that, it's about as good as we could ever hope it's always something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This looks to me like 1-3" with a line drawn about 5-10mi nw of the two cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 NAM 24hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like over 0.3" for both DCA and BWI. I think we can safely call this the "best case scenario" run, and probably gives us our upper bound on this event. Indeed. Now let's hope the GFS joins the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hope this delays a bit, that or starts in the am before temps can warm, baltimore looks 32-33, good run other than during primetime sun angle failage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If ya look at 700 mb moisture, Martinsburg is the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wheres will, cold upper levels mean dendrites and decent rate amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Heh, the NAM giveth. It's not unreasonable relly. Vort is getting itself together now and looking decent. I have 2 questions for the mets: 1. Decent spread in DP/surface temps, will that eat into the qpf or does the nam account for it? 2. Looks like 2 areas of vorticity. One near RIC and another in central PA. Is this something to even pay attention irt a potential fly in the qpf ointment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Seems fairly reasonable based on what I've seen... I'll get my forecast out this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Seems fairly reasonable based on what I've seen... I'll get my forecast out this afternoon. Think fdk could get locally 4", baltimore 1-2 maybe 3, dca 1-2" baltimore does best if temps cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Heh, the NAM giveth. It's not unreasonable relly. Vort is getting itself together now and looking decent. I have 2 questions for the mets: 1. Decent spread in DP/surface temps, will that eat into the qpf or does the nam account for it? 2. Looks like 2 areas of vorticity. One near RIC and another in central PA. Is this something to even pay attention irt a potential fly in the qpf ointment? 1. QPF is an estimate of precipitation which reaches the ground surface (taking all of what you expect into account), how accurate it simulates those processes is the problem 2. I would say the main vort moves through south VA and then through central VA. The best vertical velocities transect our area, thus the heaviest QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Seems fairly reasonable based on what I've seen... I'll get my forecast out this afternoon. that was put out before the 12Z NAM, of course, and is tweaked after each model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 1. QPF is an estimate of precipitation which reaches the ground surface (taking all of what you expect into account), how accurate it simulates those processes is the problem 2. I would say the main vort moves through south VA and then through central VA. The best vertical velocities transect our area, thus the heaviest QPF. Thanks Chris. I was pretty sure about the qpf question but my memory isn't what it used to be. I typically go by the rule of thumb to envision an even more reduced qpf outcome when there's a big spread in surface and dews. NAM usually ends up being high on the qpf regardless most of the time so it's safe to knock it back a bit even with a moist surface. I was thinking that since the southern area of vorticity was clearly dominent that it wasn't much to worry about but I'm paranoid this year that if anything can cause an event to underperform then it will do just that. IIRC- similar setups and vort passages like this in the past do make for some good window watching no matter what. I would expect that if the nam is right we will see a nice period of big flakes and nice rates. I'm counting every event with snow falling as an "event" this year. If I stick with tracking accum I start to cry. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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