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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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Euro has been far from king this season.

If the GFS/GEM is right about a polar vortex dropping and sharp trough into the northeast, a chance at a phase of northern and southern streams for the 10-12th timeframe... this looks like the best setup we've had in a long time. As we await the Euro, I won't be surprised to see an abrupt weenie run now or as we get closer in the next few days.

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Euro ensembles did improve their look from 00z for the Feb 11-12 period, still not as good looking as GEFS/GGEM ensemble mean but definitely a step better. Looks a little more Miller B-ish than the other guidance.

Thanks Will. Phase 7 MJO events during a La Nina support the look of the models next week. Assuming we continue to head into phase 8 as the warming mid-stratosphere continues to downwell, I don't see why we can't get some of these threats to materialize.

2005-06 has actually become a decent match as well as 52-53.

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Euro ensembles did improve their look from 00z for the Feb 11-12 period, still not as good looking as GEFS/GGEM ensemble mean but definitely a step better. Looks a little more Miller B-ish than the other guidance.

Thanks Will. Phase 7 MJO events during a La Nina support the look of the models next week. Assuming we continue to head into phase 8 as the warming mid-stratosphere continues to downwell, I don't see why we can't get some of these threats to materialize.

2005-06 has actually become a decent match as well as 52-53.

Yeah that's an improvement right there. Stick with the signal.

AMOUTEK

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