RodneyS Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 January 2012 averaged 40.7 degrees at DCA, making it the 18th warmest January in DC history. However, December 2011 and January 2012 combined averaged 42.9 degrees, making it the 5th warmest December-January in DC history. Looking at the four December-January combinations that beat the last two months does not suggest February will see much cold or snow. Specifically, December 1931-January 1932 was the warmest combination, at 45.5 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 42.9 degrees with only a trace of snow. December 1949-January 1950 (also a La Nina) was the second warmest combination, at 45.0 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 38.7 degrees, also with a trace of snow. December 1889-January 1890 was the third warmest combination, at 44.7 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 43.4 degrees with 1.5 inches of snow. December 2001-January 2002 was the fourth warmest combination, at 43.6 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 42.6 degrees with 0.5 inches of snow. However, the 6th warmest December-January combination offers a glimmer of hope for snow lovers. That combination occurred just five years ago, when December 2006-January 2007 averaged 42.5 degrees, but was followed by a February that was only 30.9 degrees with 5.9 inches of snow. Of course, that was an El Nino year, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Someone please just drag the decrepit, rotting corpse of Old Man Winter out behind Wes' shed and put a bullet in his head already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Someone please just drag the decrepit, rotting corpse of Old Man Winter out behind Wes' shed and put a bullet in his head already. Save your ammo. He is dead already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Man the #1 warmest year must have been an all out Jan/Feb TORCH! I would have thought we would have been challenging for the warmest jan/feb ever the way the warmistas have been describing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Man the #1 warmest year must have been an all out Jan/Feb TORCH! I would have thought we would have been challenging for the warmest jan/feb ever the way the warmistas have been describing this winter. January 1932 was so warm that Baltimore did not get below freezing until the last day of the month. Not to mention, three consecutive days in the upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Man the #1 warmest year must have been an all out Jan/Feb TORCH! I would have thought we would have been challenging for the warmest jan/feb ever the way the warmistas have been describing this winter. All we need to do is throw up a +9 in Feb for the warmest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 ----- Here's what happens if you add November: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This winter has been consistently mild with cold fronts getting temps back to normal. I am wondering if the 4 warmer years included more record highs spikes which have not been the normal this year? Someone probably with TMTOTH and can research and post? I am curious but do not have the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 This winter has been consistently mild with cold fronts getting temps back to normal. I am wondering if the 4 warmer years included more record highs spikes which have not been the normal this year? Someone probably with TMTOTH and can research and post? I am curious but do not have the time. You are correct. The last two months have not seen a temperature higher than 68 degrees at DCA (on January 7th). On the other hand, the other four years (and December 2006-January 2007, the 6th warmest) all had at least three 70+ readings in December and January in DC. Specifically: December 1889: three January 1890: two December 1931: one January 1932: three December 1949: zero January 1950: six December 2001: four January 2002: one December 2006: two January 2007: one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 All we need to do is throw up a +9 in Feb for the warmest winter on record. Today's a pretty good start for that mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Today's a pretty good start for that mark. True, but if we do get a + 9 reading in February (to set the all-time high average meteorological winter temperature in DC), that would mean February 2012 averaged 48.1 degrees, which would break the existing February record set in 1976 by 1.2 degrees. Possible, but very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 True, but if we do get a + 9 reading in February (to set the all-time high average meteorological winter temperature in DC), that would mean February 2012 averaged 48.1 degrees, which would break the existing February record set in 1976 by 1.2 degrees. Possible, but very unlikely. No, I agree. +9 on the month is implausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 Based on NWS and Weather Channel projections for the rest of this month, DCA February 2012 temperatures look to finish at about 44 degrees, which would make it the 4th warmest February in DC history. Based on that number, the meteorological winter would finish at 43.2 degrees -- the third warmest ever in DC. Interestingly, the two warmest DC meteorological winters (1931-32 at 44.6 degrees and 1889-90 at 44.3 degrees) were each followed by a March that was the coldest and snowiest month of the season. Specifically, March 1932 checked in at 40.0 degrees with 4.0 inches of snow (after 1.0 inch during December-February) and March 1890 checked in at 41.4 degrees with 5.0 inches of snow (after 1.5 inches during December- February). So, there may still be some hope for DC snow lovers that this snow season will not be a total bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Based on NWS and Weather Channel projections for the rest of this month, DCA February 2012 temperatures look to finish at about 44 degrees, which would make it the 4th warmest February in DC history. Based on that number, the meteorological winter would finish at 43.2 degrees -- the third warmest ever in DC. Interestingly, the two warmest DC meteorological winters (1931-32 at 44.6 degrees and 1889-90 at 44.3 degrees) were each followed by a March that was the coldest and snowiest month of the season. Specifically, March 1932 checked in at 40.0 degrees with 4.0 inches of snow (after 1.0 inch during December-February) and March 1890 checked in at 41.4 degrees with 5.0 inches of snow (after 1.5 inches during December- February). So, there may still be some hope for DC snow lovers that this snow season will not be a total bust. Small sample size, but I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Based on NWS and Weather Channel projections for the rest of this month, DCA February 2012 temperatures look to finish at about 44 degrees, which would make it the 4th warmest February in DC history. Based on that number, the meteorological winter would finish at 43.2 degrees -- the third warmest ever in DC. Interestingly, the two warmest DC meteorological winters (1931-32 at 44.6 degrees and 1889-90 at 44.3 degrees) were each followed by a March that was the coldest and snowiest month of the season. Specifically, March 1932 checked in at 40.0 degrees with 4.0 inches of snow (after 1.0 inch during December-February) and March 1890 checked in at 41.4 degrees with 5.0 inches of snow (after 1.5 inches during December- February). So, there may still be some hope for DC snow lovers that this snow season will not be a total bust. the look i did at end jan on snow thru the date was also weighted to above average snow in march (11 of 18 winters). that's not necessarily a lot of snow of course. when you factor in some evidence of nina snow in march it seems we might have at least a slightly better shot than normal. though at this point i would not favor it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 the look i did at end jan on snow thru the date was also weighted to above average snow in march (11 of 18 winters). that's not necessarily a lot of snow of course. when you factor in some evidence of nina snow in march it seems we might have at least a slightly better shot than normal. though at this point i would not favor it myself. I wouldn't favor it as the beginning of March looks pretty hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I wouldn't favor it as the beginning of March looks pretty hostile. It will be interesting to see how much if at all we can climb for DCA. I kinda want to stay at 2" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 the look i did at end jan on snow thru the date was also weighted to above average snow in march (11 of 18 winters). that's not necessarily a lot of snow of course. when you factor in some evidence of nina snow in march it seems we might have at least a slightly better shot than normal. though at this point i would not favor it myself. The other side of this coin is that a decade ago the 2001-02 meteorological winter temperature averaged what this winter appears headed for (43.2 degrees), with just 3.2 inches of snow D-F, but March checked in at a warmer than normal 47.7 degrees, with no snow. That was a neutral winter, though, not a La Nina. Does anyone know whether the 1889-90 or 1931-32 winters were thought to be La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The other side of this coin is that a decade ago the 2001-02 meteorological winter temperature averaged what this winter appears headed for (43.2 degrees), with just 3.2 inches of snow D-F, but March checked in at a warmer than normal 47.7 degrees, with no snow. That was a neutral winter, though, not a La Nina. Does anyone know whether the 1889-90 or 1931-32 winters were thought to be La Nina? http://www.cgd.ucar....index.html#Sec5 ftp://www.coaps.fsu....-today.filter-5 1889-90 was probably a Nina..either moderate or strong most likely.... 1931-32 was neutral I think 4th warmest on record is a lock and 3rd place is 50-50?....1st or 2nd are pretty much impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 http://www.cgd.ucar....index.html#Sec5 ftp://www.coaps.fsu....-today.filter-5 1889-90 was probably a Nina..either moderate or strong most likely.... 1931-32 was neutral I think 4th warmest on record is a lock and 3rd place is 50-50?....1st or 2nd are pretty much impossible Thanks very much. I agree that this (meteorological) winter will be either 3rd or 4th warmest in DC, which will mean that two of the four will have occurred in La Nina years and the other two in neutral years. So, the current scorecard is that, of the four warmest, the one previous Nina gave DC a cold March, whereas the two previous neutrals split between a cold March and a warm March. Not a whole lot to base a cold March 2012 on, but perhaps a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thanks very much. I agree that this (meteorological) winter will be either 3rd or 4th warmest in DC, which will mean that two of the four will have occurred in La Nina years and the other two in neutral years. So, the current scorecard is that, of the four warmest, the one previous Nina gave DC a cold March, whereas the two previous neutrals split between a cold March and a warm March. Not a whole lot to base a cold March 2012 on, but perhaps a little something. Looks like February is finalized at 44.3 degrees (4th warmest), and the meteorological winter (D-F) is finalized at 43.3 degrees (3rd warmest, and the warmest since 1932). As far as a colder than normal March, the odds grow longer by the day. f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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