Is the mild winter this year a sign of Global Warming?

[toronto blizzard]

Personally I don't think so but I am curious to see what all you guys have to say.

[okie333]

In b4 this gets moved to Climate Change

[toronto blizzard]

In b4 this gets moved to Climate Change

Oh ok then just move it to the climate change forum

[Snowstorms]

Oh ok then just move it to the climate change forum

Some people may have mixed views on this but I personally dont think it can be related to Climate Change but you have to remember Weather and Climate are two different things.

Most of the warming observed across NA has been mostly in relation to the consistent AK Vortex and Strong PV centered across Eastern Siberia locking any Cold air across the Far North. This opens the door for mild Pacific air across North America and despite experiencing a few Weak Troughs here and there since December there wasnt any sufficient cold air to be dealt with given the extremely postiive NAO/AO anomaly as a result of the very cold stratosphere.

But wait theres more. Observing the Pacific we have a West based La Nina/-PDO anomaly currently and for most of the Winter season and a stubborn MJO which refuses to leave phases 3-6 which spell "Torch" for the East. The slightly cooler anomalies observed across the Far SW in December was mostly MJO related with widespread warm anomalies else where.

It has certaninly been a non-Winter across NA and Europe (December). But the changes we observed including the Mtn torque event we observed in late December-January which allowed the Stratosphere to warm and developing a -AO anomaly for the past few days thus sending Europe in the deep freezer despite a +NAO anomaly.

Again lets see what happens over the next few weeks esp with the MJO now finally progressing into more favorable phases (7,8,1) and increasing convection combined with weakening low level Easterlies and Kelvin Waves potentially developing.

This Winter is crap.....lets hope 2012-13 ftw like holy f**k.

[JoMo]

yes, obviously it's global warming. If you want winter back you should shut down your computer, stop driving a car and live off the grid.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Some people may have mixed views on this but I personally dont think it can be related to Climate Change but you have to remember Weather and Climate are two different things.

Most of the warming observed across NA has been mostly in relation to the consistent AK Vortex and Strong PV centered across Eastern Siberia locking any Cold air across the Far North. This opens the door for mild Pacific air across North America and despite experiencing a few Weak Troughs here and there since December there wasnt any sufficient cold air to be dealt with given the extremely postiive NAO/AO anomaly as a result of the very cold stratosphere.

But wait theres more. Observing the Pacific we have a West based La Nina/-PDO anomaly currently and for most of the Winter season and a stubborn MJO which refuses to leave phases 3-6 which spell "Torch" for the East. The slightly cooler anomalies observed across the Far SW in December was mostly MJO related with widespread warm anomalies else where.

It has certaninly been a non-Winter across NA and Europe (December). But the changes we observed including the Mtn torque event we observed in late December-January which allowed the Stratosphere to warm and developing a -AO anomaly for the past few days thus sending Europe in the deep freezer despite a +NAO anomaly.

Again lets see what happens over the next few weeks esp with the MJO now finally progressing into more favorable phases (7,8,1) and increasing convection combined with weakening low level Easterlies and Kelvin Waves potentially developing.

This Winter is crap.....lets hope 2012-13 ftw like holy f**k.

You make many good points, but to play devil's advocate I will say that while this January won't make the top 5 warmest in Toronto, Decembers and Februaries (particularly Februaries) have warmed exponentially over the past few decades. Even going back to the 30s there are few Decembers and Februaries as mild as the ones we've seen over the past 20 years. All of the top 10 warmest Februaries (in Toronto, not just at Pearson airport) have been in the past 20 years.

Don Sutherland made a good point in the medium range discussion thread that the reason we likely won't see a February 1899 outbreak even if the NAO and AO went negative is because the arctic is much warmer today than it was back then.

[blue sky]

There is historic cold in Alaska and Eastern Europe. Local weather is not climate.

[ORH_wxman]

Outside of the arctic regions on the Eurasian side, the US/Canada have been the warmest regions this winter.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I agree that the warming is more regional than global. I am open minded about this and we'll see what happens in 30 years time.

[Jonger]

Perhaps the coldest temp ever recorded in the United states just occured the other day. The thermometer broke at -79 and the record is -80. The temp was crashing before the gauge went down.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree that the warming is more regional than global. I am open minded about this and we'll see what happens in 30 years time.

Our part of the globe is quite sensitive to multi-decadal cycles that dwarf any backround warming signal. Since the AO/NAO has trended back negative in the last 10 years, our winters have cooled. You can see how the last 11 winters have faired versus the 1981-2010 mean...and since these 11 winters are included in the mean, the difference between them and the 1981-2000 winters is even greater.

[TerryM]

50 - 60 years ago the merchants in Galt (West of Toronto) held a contest each year where the purpose was to guess the date that the river would break up in the spring. I moved back into the area 7 years ago only to find that the river no longer experiences winter freezes that last until spring. Today the river is still flowing freely and we had our first snow only this last week.

If it aint global warming, it's a hell of a good imitation.

[BeastFromTheEast]

50 - 60 years ago the merchants in Galt (West of Toronto) held a contest each year where the purpose was to guess the date that the river would break up in the spring. I moved back into the area 7 years ago only to find that the river no longer experiences winter freezes that last until spring. Today the river is still flowing freely and we had our first snow only this last week.

If it aint global warming, it's a hell of a good imitation.

lol

[Bozart]

It is true that not everyone is experiencing a mild winter, so the question could have been phrased better.

It is also true that global-warming theory anticipates greater displacements and extreme anomalies -- both hot and cold, both regional and hemispheric -- as world climate systems energize under a generally warming regime.

I enjoy extreme anomalies, so global warming has me psyched.

[donsutherland1]

Perhaps the coldest temp ever recorded in the United states just occured the other day. The thermometer broke at -79 and the record is -80. The temp was crashing before the gauge went down.

Alaska has had some severe cold this month. However, that reading is probably not legitimate. The coldest record temperature reported anywhere else in Alaska during the weekend and larger 1/25-30 period was -58° at Circle Hot Springs. It is highly unlikely another location would have been 21° colder than the coldest record temperature recorded anywhere in Alaska.

In fact, the National Weather Service put out the following public information statement:

NOAK49 PAFG 302352
PNSAFG
AKZ219-222-311200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...CLARIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FROM JIM RIVER DOT CAMP...

TEMPERATURES THIS PAST WEEKEND AT THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION JIM RIVER MAINTENANCE CAMP AT MILE 138 DALTON
HIGHWAY...STATION JMTA2...HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS LOW AS 79 BELOW.

THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CORRECT. THE WEATHER STATION IN USE AT
THE JIM RIVER DOT CAMP IS A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION THAT IS NOT
RATED FOR TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 40 BELOW. THE UNREALISTICALLY
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE BATTERY
FAILING AT VERY LOW TEMPERATURES.

THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STANDARD...
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS AT JIM RIVER DOT CAMP.

$$
RT/JL JAN 12

[michsnowfreak]

This years mild winter is as much a sign of global warming as last years cold/snowy winter was a sign of global cooling/new ice age.

As some pointed out, global climate and local weather are very different things, but much of the general public will perceive their local weather to have something to do with climate change or lackthereof.

Since records began, there have been mild winters and cold winters, and there was a greater frequency of mild winters in this region from the 1930s-1950s than there are today. Grandma and grandpa can tell you whatever they want to, but records dont lie. The validity of the mildness and low snow of so many winters in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s is just as factual as that of the severity of many 1970s winters.

I will say, maybe its from all of our recent harsh winters, or maybe its because the public has just grown tired of hearing about it (global warming talk has jumped the shark so to speak), but I am quite pleased how I really havent heard any talk of "global warming" as reasoning for our mild winter. Ten years ago, you couldnt have a few consecutive warmer-than-average days without hearing someone speak of global warming.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Ok, so that is 45 years of a mean.

It is a lot more dramatic when you flick them back and forth.

Since the ice took a nose dive:

And 2011:

Obviously the further south you go the less the changes.

It doesn't matter how much the multi-decadol cycles overwhelm the background warming signal. The warming is there and is currently near the top of it's affects.

Last one From Nov-Dec 2011:

So where the hell is the cold air? If AGW is not affecting our winters or summers or what not, then where is the heat hiding?

The bottom line is, if it's not us being warmer than we would, then it's Canada or Russia or Europe, or somewhere else.

I also realize things like PDO, AMO, Sun, ENSO, Snow and Ice Albedo affect this.

We current have a -PDO, -AMO, La Nina, and we are coming out of a solar min and the arctic set the record warmest year, 2011 in the NH is warmer than the long term mean.

So there is less cold air for the Decadol ossilations to play with? Given a long enough timeline the warming will show it's face.

[franklin NCwx]

Can you show us the southern hemisphere? Thanks.

Ok, so that is 45 years of a mean.

It is a lot more dramatic when you flick them back and forth.

Since the ice took a nose dive:

And 2011:

Obviously the further south you go the less the changes.

It doesn't matter how much the multi-decadol cycles overwhelm the background warming signal. The warming is there and is currently near the top of it's affects.

Last one From Nov-Dec 2011:

So where the hell is the cold air? If AGW is not affecting our winters or summers or what not, then where is the heat hiding?

The bottom line is, if it's not us being warmer than we would, then it's Canada or Russia or Europe, or somewhere else.

I also realize things like PDO, AMO, Sun, ENSO, Snow and Ice Albedo affect this.

We current have a -PDO, -AMO, La Nina, and we are coming out of a solar min and the arctic set the record warmest year, 2011 in the NH is warmer than the long term mean.

So there is less cold air for the Decadol ossilations to play with? Given a long enough timeline the warming will show it's face.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Can you show us the southern hemisphere? Thanks.

[Jonger]

50 - 60 years ago the merchants in Galt (West of Toronto) held a contest each year where the purpose was to guess the date that the river would break up in the spring. I moved back into the area 7 years ago only to find that the river no longer experiences winter freezes that last until spring. Today the river is still flowing freely and we had our first snow only this last week.

If it aint global warming, it's a hell of a good imitation.

And that post just cost you any remaining credibility you might have had.

[donsutherland1]

Personally I don't think so but I am curious to see what all you guys have to say.

If you're talking about the Toronto area or the CONUS, the abnormal warmth is probably mainly due to the synoptic pattern. December is a case in point (all the data is in). The temperature anomalies for most of North America were consistent with the composite for very strong AO+ regimes:

It is difficult to tease out the climate change signal for most of North America.

Where one can argue that the warmth has been a product of climate change is in the Arctic. It's not just this winter that one has witnessed unseasonable warmth. Consistently, the Arctic has been warmer than what should have occurred based on the pattern that prevailed. That divergence in temperatures relative to what had prevailed in the past given the synoptic pattern is likely the result of climate change and Arctic warming is something forecast by the climate models.

Of course, an Arctic that has cold air masses that are, on average less expansive and less severe, has downstream implications. However, aside from a possible decline in the frequency of severe cold outbreaks and the severity of such outbreaks, the signal is too ambiguous from which to draw hard conclusions right now.

One possible hint, though, was the strong AO- regimes in 2009-10 and 2010-11. One saw persistent cold in the areas typical for such patterns. What one generally didn't witness was extreme cold except in more limited areas e.g., Europe in December 2010. Even the cold in Alaska might be a case in point. The cold has been remarkably sustained, but to date there have been just 2 days on which the temperature fell to -50° or below (coldest: -51°) in Fairbanks. The number of such days by decade is as follows:

1950s: 34 (Winter 1950-51 had 10 days; Winter 1951-52 had 8 days; Coldest: -56°)

1960s: 53 (Winter 1964-65 had 19 days; Winter 1968-69 had 13 days; Winter 1960-61 had 9 days; Coldest: -62°)

1970s: 28 (Winter 1970-71 had 13 days; Winter 1974-75 had 10 days; Coldest: -60°)

1980s: 4 (Coldest: -50°)

1990s: 12 (Winter 1998-99 had 6 days; Coldest: -58°)

2000s: 1 (Coldest: -51°)

2010s: 2 (Coldest: -51°)

Nevertheless, the possible downstream impact remains ambiguous. I don't believe one can yet clearly discern the downstream climate signal.

[WeatherRusty]

Don touches on what I feel is the correct way to assess the question. One year or one season represents a single point in the distribution of weather likely to occur during a particular climatic regime. One point does not represent climate, the normal distribution of weather measured over time does.

What we should look for are trends in the number of particular type events. If new warm records are consistently more prevalent than new cold records or the rate of certain thresholds being exceeded changes then we can say climate change is represented in the collective of those individual events.

Therefore my answer to the OP is no. A single season can not tell you that.

[skierinvermont]

Poor posts from everyone on both sides except don and rusty. The thread title asks the wrong question.

[hurricaneman]

It's not necessarily global warming. If you look at Australia for example, that area is below normal and wetter than normal. Alaska is colder than normal and lots of areas are at -50< which tells me its all normal if averaged out

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

50 - 60 years ago the merchants in Galt (West of Toronto) held a contest each year where the purpose was to guess the date that the river would break up in the spring. I moved back into the area 7 years ago only to find that the river no longer experiences winter freezes that last until spring. Today the river is still flowing freely and we had our first snow only this last week.

If it aint global warming, it's a hell of a good imitation.

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

ARCTIC PHENOMENON - The

You may want to read this .It's from 1947 and they were telling the same lies back then that are being reported as the truth today..I didn't know you could cherry pick one area,as you are and call that global .

[Tullioz]

Global temperatures appear to have stabilized over the last 14 years.

[LocoAko]

Global temperatures appear to have stabilized over the last 14 years.

Regardless of what the actual temperatures did, do you realize how awful that graph is? The Earth has warmed 0.8C over the last 100 years, yet the scale is from -1 to 1C for just the last 14? Dumb.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

read what? you provided a useless link to JB's Twitter feed.

@BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

ARCTIC PHENOMENON - The West Australian (Perth, WA : 1879 - 1954), Saturday 31 May 1947, page 12 http://nla.gov.au/nla.news-article46315410 end of last warm PDO

Sorry my bad but I wouldn't call J/B Twiier site useless.

[Tullioz]

Regardless of what the actual temperatures did, do you realize how awful that graph is? The Earth has warmed 0.8C over the last 100 years, yet the scale is from -1 to 1C for just the last 14? Dumb.

All I was trying to show is that there has little change in the Earth's temperature in recent years. Everyone knows that the temperature of the Earth has had substantial warming over the last century. No one can deny that. That being said, there has been no real change since 1997 which I find to be significant. It's certainly not how many in the AGW crowd expected things to turn out. Anyway, who knows where we go from here, but this year's warm Winter in North America in no way reflects the Earth's overall climate.

[bluewave]

All I was trying to show is that there has little change in the Earth's temperature in recent years. Everyone knows that the temperature of the Earth has had substantial warming over the last century. No one can deny that. That being said, there has been no real change since 1997 which I find to be significant. It's certainly not how many in the AGW crowd expected things to turn out. Anyway, who knows where we go from here, but this year's warm Winter in North America in no way reflects the Earth's overall climate.

The warming has been in the Arctic with the major blocking pattern over the last decade.