usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/a-change-to-colder-pattern-to-improve-for-getting-snow-next-week/2012/01/30/gIQAAj52cQ_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Great read sir. Provides hope without hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Very nice, Wes. Good luck with the forecast, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Obvious pattern change is obvious, the weather can only be stagnant for a finite period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Nice write up, Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 only think you should have added (for us weenies) Wes is the CFS precip map for weeks 1 and 2 look at week 2! hopefully the forecast works out http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20120129.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 only think you should have added (for us weenies) Wes is the CFS precip map for weeks 1 and 2 look at week 2! hopefully the forecast works out http://origin.cpc.nc...k2_20120129.gif Mitch, that's a day later run than what I saw earlier today when I wrote the piece. The cold weeklies are week 2 and 3 though even 4 didn't torch over us. We can hope wetter run is right. maybe it's picking up on the GFS storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Favorite article of the year Wes! I think it's the only relatively optimistic one though. lol Interesting point about the AO and I'm glad you explained it in detail. I started wondering about it when I saw it dipping down below -3 and then -4. It's so hard to be optimistic this year but I really think that we are on the verge of a period that will actually "feel" like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Mitch, that's a day later run than what I saw earlier today when I wrote the piece. The cold weeklies are week 2 and 3 though even 4 didn't torch over us. We can hope wetter run is right. maybe it's picking up on the GFS storm idea. that's what I was thinking/hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I haven't checked the AO in weeks but I did right after reading Wes's writeup, and boy does it look pretty (as does the PNA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 18Z GFS extended already shows the sees of the pna pattern going back to a negative PNA, some of the ensemble members also show such a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Great stuff, Wes. eastern trough position will be key. Thanks for the write-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The 18Z GFS extended already shows the sees of the pna pattern going back to a negative PNA, some of the ensemble members also show such a change. FWIW, the weeklies don't get there until Week 4 (Feb 20ish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 FWIW, the weeklies don't get there until Week 4 (Feb 20ish) The euro weeklies? I hope so cause that would fit my CWG piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 FWIW, the weeklies don't get there until Week 4 (Feb 20ish) Not worth much. The models aren't of much use this winter. I think focusing on a specific period or threat window has humbled some of the best mets this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The euro weeklies? I hope so cause that would fit my CWG piece. Yeah. Week 2 is +PNA/east based -NAO, Week 3 is weak -EPO/strong -NAO, Week 4 is -PNA/-NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Not worth much. The models aren't of much use this winter. I think focusing on a specific period or threat window has humbled some of the best mets this winter. Color me skeptical about the prolonged -NAO regime setting up in the weeklies, but the Pacific pattern fits the expected MJO progression quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Color me skeptical about the prolonged -NAO regime setting up in the weeklies, but the Pacific pattern fits the expected MJO progression quite nicely. Indices don't matter to me at this point. I'm happy the MJO is entering the good phases, but beyond that I don't really care what the models show beyond day 4 as long as we aren't in an entirely hostile regime. It helps that I am not swinging for the fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Indices don't matter to me at this point. I'm happy the MJO is entering the good phases, but beyond that I don't really care what the models show beyond day 4 as long as we aren't in an entirely hostile regime. It helps that I am not swinging for the fences. Sounds like if something were to pop it will be on very short notice. Model chaos with the MJO moving into a better position just makes it worse as far as "seeing" prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Sounds like if something were to pop it will be on very short notice. Model chaos with the MJO moving into a better position just makes it worse as far as "seeing" prospects. We are still going to have to time something and there is some luck involved. I'm not going all-in on this upcoming pattern nor that winter is over once it "breaks". The AO and Atlantic are not hostile like they were for most of the winter. I like Wes's idea of uncertainty and near normal guess for February. Anyone going strongly one way or the other about the next 6 weeks I would dismiss immediately and not pay any attention to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 We are still going to have to time something and there is some luck involved. I'm not going all-in on this upcoming pattern nor that winter is over once it "breaks". The AO and Atlantic are not hostile like they were for most of the winter. I like Wes's idea of uncertainty and near normal guess for February. Anyone going strongly one way or the other about the next 6 weeks I would dismiss immediately and not pay any attention to them. Without the AO tanking and transient PNAs I think it would have been safe to say climo would have been tough to get to this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Without the AO tanking and transient PNAs I think it would have been safe to say climo would have been tough to get to this season Which is why for CWG I went below average/near median snow even when it looked like the NAO may be in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Wes, since you're saying that the models currently show a northern steam dominated pattern, does it mean that the 40N folks have a much better shot at seeing significant snow, as opposed to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Wes, since you're saying that the models currently show a northern steam dominated pattern, does it mean that the 40N folks have a much better shot at seeing significant snow, as opposed to us? Fozz, it wouldn't take much for the polar jet to dig south when the PNA ridge is very amplified; some of the largest snowstorms have done this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Fozz, it wouldn't take much for the polar jet to dig south when the PNA ridge is very amplified; some of the largest snowstorms have done this. Well, even Wes did say that a 1/26/11 type storm is possible, but I think it's more likely that this region gets fringed or gets minor 1-3" type events. A few of these flawed events can certainly bring DC/BWI to their February average of 5-8". I'd be much more excited if I was in northern NJ, based on my take of this article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well, even Wes did say that a 1/26/11 type storm is possible, but I think it's more likely that this region gets fringed or gets minor 1-3" type events. A few of these flawed events can certainly bring DC/BWI to their February average of 5-8". I'd be much more excited if I was in northern NJ, based on my take of this article. Fozz,there are signs that a split flow may develop at some point. If that happens then the chances of getting a storm that effects a large part of the east coast are improved. However, just like Chris said, you can get a northern impulse to dig enough to effect northern VA on up through NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Fozz,there are signs that a split flow may develop at some point. If that happens then the chances of getting a storm that effects a large part of the east coast are improved. However, just like Chris said, you can get a northern impulse to dig enough to effect northern VA on up through NE. I sure hope that you, Chris, and BethesdaBoy end up being right, but I think it's far too early to get excited about a huge storm when the pattern won't even be ideal, and it's hard to even have that in a 2nd year Nina (if this were happening in a Nino instead, I'd be much more excited). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Wes, since you're saying that the models currently show a northern steam dominated pattern, does it mean that the 40N folks have a much better shot at seeing significant snow, as opposed to us? Your more likely to get clipper type events and miller b rvrnyd with the northern stream dominating which do bettr as you move north from dc. We usually don't do well with miller b type events in Dc. Back in the 60s we had more of them and of course feb 10th of 2009. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Color me skeptical about the prolonged -NAO regime setting up in the weeklies, but the Pacific pattern fits the expected MJO progression quite nicely. I agree but do think the Ao will stay negative pretty much through the month which might allow the NAO to occasionally go negative. Even then, I think the higher heights in the atlantic will be a little farther south or east than we'd like in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak Wonderful piece, Wes. I enjoyed reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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