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Jan 20th snow event part 2


Thundersnow12

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Boy, I'd take that latest RPM model run in a heartbeat. Once it blows up the main precip shield it keeps CR in the heavier bands for the duration. Definitely a step in the right direction. The 00z NAM at least gets us back to where we were this morning(~3 inches).

Agreed. It looks like the RPM is updated every 3hrs, so a new run should be out in an hour or so. Hope it continues to look like the latest version.

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Heavy snow has been put into my local forecast for tomorrow. Friday Hi/Lo: 21°/-3°

Then freezing rain/rain for Sunday then back to mix at night. 7 day has definitely trended down.

Hmm...Winter Weather Advisories have been pushed further north into WI.

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Hmm...Winter Weather Advisories have been pushed further north into WI.

MKX update below. I will say I'm not sure I see where the 0z NAM continued the trend of the 18z of pushing the max QPF north.

LOOKING AT 18Z MODEL DATA I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE

TOO LOW WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST

AREA. A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 AND 650 MB...WHILE NOT REACHING 0

CELSIUS DOES TAKE US OUT OF THE BETTER SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR THIS

LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF MAY BE HIGHER SOUTH...SNOW

RATIOS USING THE TOP DOWN AND COBB TECHNIQUE WILL BE HIGHER NORTH

WHERE MORE OF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. IN

ADDITION THE 18Z NAM/GFS PUSHED THE MAX QPF AREA BACK A LITTLE

FARTHER NORTH. 00Z NAM KEEPS THIS TREND. WELL INTO ADVISORY GIVEN

EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RAISED NORTH AND HAVE

PUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN A SNOW ADVISORY. IMPRESSIVE

170 KNOT 300 MB JET EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN

WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET FRIDAY

WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE.

700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS OVER 2 G/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA

AND AROUND 3 G/KG OVER PORTIONS OF LAFAYETTE COUNTY BY LATE

AFTERNOON. THIS DISPITE THE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER.

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MKX update below. I will say I'm not sure I see where the 0z NAM continued the trend of the 18z of pushing the max QPF north.

Not the max QPF bro.. They mean the northern edge of the .25+ QPF being pushed further and further north the past few runs..

Which is also why they expanded their WWA's up north to near Sheboygan..

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Just for sh*ts and giggles....

Chicago and Detroit should both officially wipe off any chance of least snowiest winter this year with this event :lol::weenie:

Thru Jan 19th, Chicago is at 7.5", record low is 9.8" (1920-21), and Detroit is at 10.5", record low is 12.9" (1936-37). Since we still have 3 months or snow potential to go, lets go for it....above climo season total or bust for 2011-12. :bike:

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