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Jan 2012 Banter Thread

LongBeachSurfFreak

By LongBeachSurfFreak,
in New York City Metro

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Southeast of the benchmark at 150 hours.

f150.gif

It's looking like a very marginal situation at best IMO, there's a low pressure in the Great Lakes and no source of strong cold air available nearby. While some snow perhaps could be possible in this time frame, it would require more changes to make it a more favorable situation. I'm looking for the time frame after this potential storm, towards the start of February, for any better snow chances.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

It's looking like a very marginal situation at best IMO, there's a low pressure in the Great Lakes and no source of strong cold air available nearby. While some snow perhaps could be possible in this time frame, it would require more changes to make it a more favorable situation. I'm looking for the time frame after this potential storm, towards the start of February, for any better snow chances.

This run is looking marginal because there isn't a lot of cold air around. The low north of us isn't going to help us. Now there is still some time for this to change for us so lets hope it changes for the better.

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bates

bates

Posted
Posted

This run is looking marginal because there isn't a lot of cold air around. The low north of us isn't going to help us. Now there is still some time for this to change for us so lets hope it changes for the better.

Actually, this run is looking downright awful for anyone who has lately pushed that a flip to a very wintry February is coming. If anything, the signals point in the exact opposite direction. Perhaps yet another busted wintry forecast in a winter which has had so many such busted calls it makes your head spin.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Actually, this run is looking downright awful for anyone who has lately pushed that a flip to a very wintry February is coming. If anything, the signals point in the exact opposite direction. Perhaps yet another busted wintry forecast in a winter which has had so many such busted calls it makes your head spin.

Agree with this run.

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bates

bates

Posted
Posted

Agree with this run.

Ant -- Perhaps awful was over-doing it. But relative to those very wintry February calls by some, it certainly doesn't show that. Some transient shots of cold, light snows, and any noteworthy storm is wet rather than frozen.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

<Copied and pasted from a post I made at Eastern Wx two years ago>

I write quite a bit about Long Island weather and climate because I've lived on the Island for nearly 39 years, having moved here in October 1971. I resided in Plainview, which is in east central Nassau County from 1971-1994 and in Port Jefferson, which is on the North Shore of central Suffolk County from 1994 to the present.

I only took an interest in weather as recently as December 12, 1982. I happened on TWC that Sunday morning for the first time and saw John Hope giving an energetic presentation on how an in progress snowstorm "was hugging the coast" a little more than expected. Picked up about 5 to 6 inches of snow that December day on Long Island and have been a weather fan ever since. That storm was best known as the cause of the infamous "Snowplow" game up at Foxboro when a Patriots employee cleared the field for the New England kicker to boot home the winning field goal against the Dolphins. Shula fumed.

Anyway, having observed the weather in Plainview from that day in 1982 until I moved out east in December 1994, I became quite accustomed to the ups and downs any snow fan in the NYC / Long Island area experiences. In retrospect, the disappointments outweighed the exhilirating moments more often that not during those winters, as snowfall was pretty unimpressive in this area during that span. But something that disappointed me even more was that up until today, I had been unable to access the climatological data for what was without question the most reliable and representative cooperative weather station in Nassau County during the 1980's. The name of the station was Westbury, and though it was in operation for only 10.5 years (1/1/1980 - 6/30/1990), it provided a virtually gap free picture of the weather in Nassau County during those years. Besides being gap free, it is located very close to the geographical center of the county, about half way between North and South Shores and roughly midway between the Queens and Suffolk lines. Even better, a quick inspection of the temperature data shows that it was far enough east to be outside the NYC heat island, consistently recording temperatures well below those in NYC. Lastly, the station was only about 3 miles WSW of where I lived in Plainview, so I now have a definitive climate record of the area where my interest in the subject was sparked and I spent so many years. Westbury's elevation was 90 feet and mine in Plainview was 160 feet, so there was not much of an altitude difference. As I mentioned at another time, many of my old records I kept in Plainview have been either lost or discarded. Locating the Westbury data was better than finding all my old Plainview paperwork; their climate record was far more complete than mine ever was. So without further ado, here are some of the interesting climate stats from far and away Nassau County's most reliable and representative station during the 1980's:

Westbury Annual Snowfall:

1980-81: 22.7"

1981-82: 27.5"

1982-83: 31.4"

1983-84: 30.4"

1984-85: 28.8"

1985-86: 16.5"

1986-87: 33.4"

1987-88: 24.4"

1988-89: 15.8"

1989-90: 23.5"

Mean: 25.44"

Westbury Notable Snowstorms:

1/7/81: 6.9"

3/5/81: 10.4"

1/14/82: 8.1"

4/6/82: 8.8"

12/12/82: 5.7"

2/12/83: 16.5"

1/11/84: 4.7"

1/18/84: 5.7"

3/9/84: 7.0"

12/27/84: 6.8"

1/17/85: 5.5"

2/6/85: 4.9"

2/8/86: 4.0"

2/11/86: 4.1"

1/23/87: 8.2"

1/26/87: 4.6"

2/23/87: 4.8"

1/4/88: 7.1"

1/9/88: 6.8"

12/13/88: 3.7"

1/6/89: 6.2"

11/23/89: 7.2"

2/25/90: 4.4"

Mean Annual Snowfall (1980-81 - 1989-90)

Westbury: 25.44"

Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX: 25.41"

LaGuardia Airport: 21.66"

John F Kennedy Airport: 20.28"

Central Park: 19.74"

Since I've moved out to Port Jeferson, I've often commented on how snowy the 2001 - 2010 period had been at the nearby Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX. But the above record clearly shows that during the 1980's Westbury and Upton OKX, were in a virtual dead heat for mean annual snowfall.

November and April Snow Events At Westbury:

11/17/80: 0.2"

4/6/82: 8.8"

4/19/83: 1.4"

11/19/86: 1.7"

11/11/87: 1.1"

11/23/89: 7.2"

4/7/90: 2.6"

It also got quite cold in Westbury during the 1980's. On 10 separate days the mercury dipped to zero Farenheit or below:

12/25/80: -1

1/9/81: 0

1/12/81: -1

1/17/82: -5

1/18/82: -7

1/21/84: -3

1/22/84: -5

1/21/85: -4

1/11/88: 0

1/15/88: -1

I'm quite happy I was finally able to obtain access to this climatological data. It paints an extremely clear picture of Nassau County weather during the 1980's. I only regret that observations ceased on 6/30/1990. It would have been interesting to see what kind of data would have been recorded in Westbury during the tumultuous last 20 years.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

<Copied and pasted from a post I made at Eastern Wx two years ago>

I write quite a bit about Long Island weather and climate because I've lived on the Island for nearly 39 years, having moved here in October 1971. I resided in Plainview, which is in east central Nassau County from 1971-1994 and in Port Jefferson, which is on the North Shore of central Suffolk County from 1994 to the present.

I only took an interest in weather as recently as December 12, 1982. I happened on TWC that Sunday morning for the first time and saw John Hope giving an energetic presentation on how an in progress snowstorm "was hugging the coast" a little more than expected. Picked up about 5 to 6 inches of snow that December day on Long Island and have been a weather fan ever since. That storm was best known as the cause of the infamous "Snowplow" game up at Foxboro when a Patriots employee cleared the field for the New England kicker to boot home the winning field goal against the Dolphins. Shula fumed.

Anyway, having observed the weather in Plainview from that day in 1982 until I moved out east in December 1994, I became quite accustomed to the ups and downs any snow fan in the NYC / Long Island area experiences. In retrospect, the disappointments outweighed the exhilirating moments more often that not during those winters, as snowfall was pretty unimpressive in this area during that span. But something that disappointed me even more was that up until today, I had been unable to access the climatological data for what was without question the most reliable and representative cooperative weather station in Nassau County during the 1980's. The name of the station was Westbury, and though it was in operation for only 10.5 years (1/1/1980 - 6/30/1990), it provided a virtually gap free picture of the weather in Nassau County during those years. Besides being gap free, it is located very close to the geographical center of the county, about half way between North and South Shores and roughly midway between the Queens and Suffolk lines. Even better, a quick inspection of the temperature data shows that it was far enough east to be outside the NYC heat island, consistently recording temperatures well below those in NYC. Lastly, the station was only about 3 miles WSW of where I lived in Plainview, so I now have a definitive climate record of the area where my interest in the subject was sparked and I spent so many years. Westbury's elevation was 90 feet and mine in Plainview was 160 feet, so there was not much of an altitude difference. As I mentioned at another time, many of my old records I kept in Plainview have been either lost or discarded. Locating the Westbury data was better than finding all my old Plainview paperwork; their climate record was far more complete than mine ever was. So without further ado, here are some of the interesting climate stats from far and away Nassau County's most reliable and representative station during the 1980's:

Westbury Annual Snowfall:

1980-81: 22.7"

1981-82: 27.5"

1982-83: 31.4"

1983-84: 30.4"

1984-85: 28.8"

1985-86: 16.5"

1986-87: 33.4"

1987-88: 24.4"

1988-89: 15.8"

1989-90: 23.5"

Mean: 25.44"

Westbury Notable Snowstorms:

1/7/81: 6.9"

3/5/81: 10.4"

1/14/82: 8.1"

4/6/82: 8.8"

12/12/82: 5.7"

2/12/83: 16.5"

1/11/84: 4.7"

1/18/84: 5.7"

3/9/84: 7.0"

12/27/84: 6.8"

1/17/85: 5.5"

2/6/85: 4.9"

2/8/86: 4.0"

2/11/86: 4.1"

1/23/87: 8.2"

1/26/87: 4.6"

2/23/87: 4.8"

1/4/88: 7.1"

1/9/88: 6.8"

12/13/88: 3.7"

1/6/89: 6.2"

11/23/89: 7.2"

2/25/90: 4.4"

Mean Annual Snowfall (1980-81 - 1989-90)

Westbury: 25.44"

Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX: 25.41"

LaGuardia Airport: 21.66"

John F Kennedy Airport: 20.28"

Central Park: 19.74"

Since I've moved out to Port Jeferson, I've often commented on how snowy the 2001 - 2010 period had been at the nearby Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX. But the above record clearly shows that during the 1980's Westbury and Upton OKX, were in a virtual dead heat for mean annual snowfall.

November and April Snow Events At Westbury:

11/17/80: 0.2"

4/6/82: 8.8"

4/19/83: 1.4"

11/19/86: 1.7"

11/11/87: 1.1"

11/23/89: 7.2"

4/7/90: 2.6"

It also got quite cold in Westbury during the 1980's. On 10 separate days the mercury dipped to zero Farenheit or below:

12/25/80: -1

1/9/81: 0

1/12/81: -1

1/17/82: -5

1/18/82: -7

1/21/84: -3

1/22/84: -5

1/21/85: -4

1/11/88: 0

1/15/88: -1

I'm quite happy I was finally able to obtain access to this climatological data. It paints an extremely clear picture of Nassau County weather during the 1980's. I only regret that observations ceased on 6/30/1990. It would have been interesting to see what kind of data would have been recorded in Westbury during the tumultuous last 20 years.

william, as always, your information is very rare and informative. What a great asset to have you on the board.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

william, as always, your information is very rare and informative. What a great asset to have you on the board.

Thanks much.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

my 01-02 analog is working out just fine---we got a storm like this mid Jan 02, then poof-back to warmth and rain....here we go with that...if we go snowless the rest of the way, it will be a very similar winter, but just wetter...

I was just thinking of that the other day when we were getting snow. The difference is that Central Park has more snow this winter than that winter and also the October storm. I do think we will get more snow.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Dec and January have been very similiar though. If Feb/March end up mild and snowless it will be a very comparable winter.

I was just thinking of that the other day when we were getting snow. The difference is that Central Park has more snow this winter than that winter and also the October storm. I do think we will get more snow.

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

Posted
Posted

Dec and January have been very similiar though. If Feb/March end up mild and snowless it will be a very comparable winter.

They have been similar, although this winter has been quite a bit wetter. NYC only got 2.17'' of precip in December 2001 while it got almost double that (4.00'') in December 2011. Also, through this time in January 2002 NYC had only gotten 1.29'' of precip, while this month so far NYC has gotten 2.24''.

This January has also been slightly cooler than January 2002 so far. The average temperature in NYC through 1/22/02 was 36.2, while the average temperature in NYC through 1/22/12 was 35.2. Also, this month Central Park has gotten down into the teens on five days, while in January 2002 it didn't get into the teens once. Decembers 2001 and 2011 (43.6 and 43.3 respectively) were very similar temperature-wise though.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

I'm happy to say the rain has washed a lot of the snow here, and hopefully the 45 degree sunshine will take care of the rest tommorow.

While snow after a couple days gets gross in the city, Central Park has looked like a postcard since Saturday. I absolutely have loved running through there... very peaceful and even more of a nice break from the city.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Yeah there were very few cold snaps that winter and 97-98. This year we've had a few they've just been short lived. But there's also a lot of winter to go so hopefully we can break this comparison. It was a also a hot dry spring from April through July before we finally broke out of it in late August.

They have been similar, although this winter has been quite a bit wetter. NYC only got 2.17'' of precip in December 2001 while it got almost double that (4.00'') in December 2011. Also, through this time in January 2002 NYC had only gotten 1.29'' of precip, while this month so far NYC has gotten 2.24''.

This January has also been slightly cooler than January 2002 so far. The average temperature in NYC through 1/22/02 was 36.2, while the average temperature in NYC through 1/22/12 was 35.2. Also, this month Central Park has gotten down into the teens on five days, while in January 2002 it didn't get into the teens once. Decembers 2001 and 2011 (43.6 and 43.3 respectively) were very similar temperature-wise though.

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