marked8 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Your little midget torch is going to die. Bastardi is eating extra beans just for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 CT Blozz and weatherwiz did Sages of met forecasting. I defer to their knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yoda is slipping or it's a bad run. Never thought you would say that Wes Just been busy this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Sages of met forecasting. I defer to their knowledge We're screwed cause Blizz dislikes the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Matt should be in shortly with some Euro interpretation. It's out thru 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 We're screwed cause Blizz dislikes the GFS That actually makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 probably north and too warm, but not sure that's "probably" what happens, but at least it's something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 looks warmer than 0z thru 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 probably north and too warm, but not sure euro has a warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 not happening this run.. maybe someone gets a light glaze tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 verbatim, very light snow to start then quickly to rain...the sfc low moves from se Ohio right over us....we need it further south....All I am hoping for is a 1-2" snow to rain event though that is probably still a longshot Not good but there is still time. Something to watch. I just hope neither model throws us a S track and shows a thump only to yank it from under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 that's "probably" what happens, but at least it's something to track! . Agreed. At least it's on other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 verbatim, very light snow to start then quickly to rain...the sfc low moves from se Ohio right over us....we need it further south....All I am hoping for is a 1-2" snow to rain event though that is probably still a longshot 0c in n md with .05" qpf by 12z.. you sure that's snow? maybe nw of the city. the run looks worse than 0z otherwise if you want anything of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 you're right....probably only well NW as snow to start i guess it does get that little finger of moisture in quicker.. that might be key. the high placement kinda sucks tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 OK, how often can we say we've seen this before Day 6 Euro 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 OK, how often can we say we've seen this before Day 6 Euro 5H http://vortex.plymou...=h120&cu=latest it pops a really weak low to our south after the first wave but it's pretty mild at that point verbatim and the wave just wanders east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 it pops a really weak low to our south after the first wave but it's pretty mild at that point verbatim and the wave just wanders east. I guess I should have been clearer I was refering to the 3 vortexes over Canada 2, not uncommon at all, but 3 lined up like that intent on doing us dirty is a bit unfair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro gets snow close to us on early Friday with the clipper (which the GFS and GGEM do as well), but the Euro says the Apps eat it all up. I wouldn't be surprised if we eek out a dusting from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 i dont buy the euro. GFS all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I won't be surprised if we get a snow to ice to rain overrunner before the torch next weekend. Certainly the most likely type of winter storm we could get from this type of pattern, a nice little overrunner. Take what we can get, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 i dont buy the euro. GFS all the way Some things never change, you always buy the snowier model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 i dont buy the euro. GFS all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Some things never change, you always buy the snowier model. Euro is not always the king...GFS had the same look for the "JB" minor event that gave us over an inch...Euro had it further north and most here said it would be rain if anything...not over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro is not always the king...GFS had the same look for the "JB" minor event that gave us over an inch...Euro had it further north and most here said it would be rain if anything...not over yet I don't think that's quite true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 to be sure, Euro has beat the GFS several times this winter, but the GFS has beat the Euro as well who knows which way it will be with this one Coastalwx is right in pointing out the track and intensity of the 1st clipper will be key, so we're "in the game" for now is the way I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Anything over +10 departures for a few days in a row is a torch. Sorry. No one said it was gonna torch for the next 2 months. My normal high is 39. 10 over is 49. I hardly consider that a torch. Anyone in this region that would is not very reasonable about where they live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JMA is snow to ice to rain. There appears to be a wedge but the 850 temps are high for most of the storm--cant tell what surface temps are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 My normal high is 39. 10 over is 49. I hardly consider that a torch. Anyone in this region that would is not very reasonable about where they live. It's going to torch next week. Just letting you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 My normal high is 39. 10 over is 49. I hardly consider that a torch. Anyone in this region that would is not very reasonable about where they live. +10 departures for one day may not be a torch, but for several days or more, yeah it probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't think that's quite true. It isn't. The Euro actually had that one first. One thing about that one though is IIRC that it ended up colder than modeled by both the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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