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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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I couple of GEFS members are in the same ball park as the GFS, most of the others are warmer. The ensemble runs aren't a total distaster for the Fri night?sat time range. It's still probably not the most likely solution but is not one you can just toss out.

its the best looking chance we have had in ages....tells you how crappy our winter is be. Looking forward to CWG article which i may or may not read:)

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Most of the individual GFS ensemble members have an event for Saturday, but most are warm

GGEM has a storm as well, but from what I can tell (not much) from those crappy 4-panel charts is that it's probably rain. However, looks like GGEM gives us a little snow Friday morning with the clipper that moves through New England. Several GFS ensemble members do this as well.

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Well it's more complicated than that, but I would think that you'd have a little more confluence if it did happen. It's a progressive flow so timing and intensity this far out will be hard to determine. But hey, nothing else to do in this winter, so might as well see what happens. Good luck.

Thanks for coming over to our forum and adding your insights.

Looks like the mega torch is evolving into just an avg. torch. Of course that could change back I guess.

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I couple of GEFS members are in the same ball park as the GFS, most of the others are warmer. The ensemble runs aren't a total distaster for the Fri night?sat time range. It's still probably not the most likely solution but is not one you can just toss out.

typical storms for us are usually the ones that start off as a chance on a model run or 2 from 5-7 days out, then gain momentum/consensus

very rarely do we see a 2/6/10 event that is modeled from 5 days+ away

I think it's the best we can hope for at this range in this pattern/winter

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its the best looking chance we have had in ages....tells you how crappy our winter is be. Looking forward to CWG article which i may or may not read:)

The article right now is not about any snowstorm. Instead it's about the negative PNA and what that means for the conus including us. Bi changes for the west, not many chances for snow. It's going to have a cool graph. Of course it may be superceded by a snow possible for Saturday post if the GFS looks the same this time tomorrow.

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lets huddle up here and get a plan

stormtracker fill up the bus adjust driver seat for matt

matt, ian and me pbp euro

ji keep us posted on the jma and jb

mitchnick keep posting just links to cold stuff

yoda link up the ggem and then eek says stfu

mapgirl just yell torch as needed

wes keep us posted on what can go wrong

someone get with weather 53 and get a baro. check for dc.

coastalwx pop in and keep the mood up in the bus

Feb not sure why you are in the mid atl. bus but we have some room down with the luggage

BB tighten all luggage on the roof of the bus in case of high winds

HM pop in for late night treats for the bus

without water there is no storm :(

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verbatim, very light snow to start then quickly to rain...the sfc low moves from se Ohio right over us....we need it further south....All I am hoping for is a 1-2" snow to rain event though that is probably still a longshot

Not good but there is still time. Something to watch. I just hope neither model throws us a S track and shows a thump only to yank it from under us.

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