Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Time to break off a new discussion for storm potential on Sunday. 12z Euro is amped up today with rain for the CP and heavy snows inland. 12z GFS and GGEM have a weaker suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 and HPC's discussion was at 1230 and didn't talk about an amped up storm...seemed to be using mostly 0z. Dont' quite get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 and HPC's discussion was at 1230 and didn't talk about an amped up storm...seemed to be using mostly 0z. Dont' quite get that they wouldn't have seen the 12z euro for a 1230pm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Wet. I vote wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well, After the 12z run it can only get worse here, I hate jackpotting this far out, But its something to track which has been far and few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well, After the 12z run it can only get worse here, I hate jackpotting this far out, But its something to track which has been far and few. At some point the Euro will again nail a snowstorm 5 days out, oh for the good old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I just remember about 4 or 5 days before x-mass when the models had a snow event for that Thursday night before x-mass eve, and what happened? …rain. It’s not just that one… The repeating theme has been to bump these critters NW in time, all season, and that is not uncommon during eras with limited blocking by the way. I’m cautious at best on this thing for the time being. But yes, within its self this Euro run definitely has a blue snow thump vibe about it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm betting on rain for here, but I would be lying if I said I won't be on here tracking every model run that I'm not asleep or at school for lol. Sunday-Sunday night would be perfect timing for a storm too. Should be interesting to see what the the 12z ensembles do. It would be nice to see the 12z euro nail a solution 5 days out for once. I would certainly take a solution that was rain flipping over to heavy snow at this point...even if it only was 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro MOS: SUN 18Z 08-JAN 0.5 -0.9 1009 99 100 0.25 546 539 MON 00Z 09-JAN 1.1 -1.3 999 97 100 0.62 538 539 MON 06Z 09-JAN 0.0 -6.0 1002 86 95 0.48 529 527 MON 12Z 09-JAN -5.8 -7.8 1009 83 24 0.02 531 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I just remember about 4 or 5 days before x-mass when the models had a snow event for that Thursday night before x-mass eve, and what happened? …rain. It’s not just that one… The repeating theme has been to bump these critters NW in time, all season, and that is not uncommon during eras with limited blocking by the way. I’m cautious at best on this thing for the time being. But yes, within its self this Euro run definitely has a blue snow thump vibe about it - No it doesn't. It has rain changing to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro MOS: SUN 18Z 08-JAN 0.5 -0.9 1009 99 100 0.25 546 539 MON 00Z 09-JAN 1.1 -1.3 999 97 100 0.62 538 539 MON 06Z 09-JAN 0.0 -6.0 1002 86 95 0.48 529 527 MON 12Z 09-JAN -5.8 -7.8 1009 83 24 0.02 531 523 Where?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Where?? Oh, ha ha - right. That's FIT, but it nicely shows the marignality of it. Lot of QPF though, wow - at 33F while it is -1C at 850 and a low sliding SE of the area is a smoking gun for isothermal snow whomp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Oh, ha ha - right. That's FIT, but it nicely shows the marignality of it. Lot of QPF though, wow - at 33F while it is -1C at 850 and a low sliding SE of the area is a smoking gun for isothermal snow whomp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 At some point the Euro will again nail a snowstorm 5 days out, oh for the good old days. Oh how i pray for the old days Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Oh, ha ha - right. That's FIT, but it nicely shows the marignality of it. Lot of QPF though, wow - at 33F while it is -1C at 850 and a low sliding SE of the area is a smoking gun for isothermal snow whomp! Thanks. Yeah- Verbatim that looks like maybe 8-12" of wet snow from early afternoon to midnight Sunday maybe northwest of ORH. The set-up on the euro would probably make Pete pretty happy. Too bad its 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro ensembles have the low right over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That is similar to the OP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 yeah, I could see it being all rain just in Tolland in this unique sort of synoptic evolution. weird how that happens sometimes but ...yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Tip is right for areas like FIT, actually a sweet track for the CNE non CP folks, but one run syndrome. Would not be surprised at all if this stays a CC canal cutter with WCT WMASS and the usuals doing well. Congrats Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Rain for me. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro ensembles have the low right over the Cape. I'm really interested in if that cold/warm gradient holds or if it just gets gone by the time that comes up... like the pre X-mass eve waste of time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That is similar to the OP.. Keep praying bro, it has to happen at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Rain for me. Thanks for the info. We need to take one for the team bro otherwise we are cooked every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There must be a few weenie members in there because the ensembles are colder, but I would naturally expect them to be a little less amped up then the op. Edit: the op run is basically the warmest, but I've seen that before. I wouldn't read into it yet, being this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 We need to take one entire winter for the team bro otherwise we are cooked every time. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 fixed. Can I get some cheese with that whine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Being 5 days out it'll come west..go back east..and in the end still be rain for most except far N VT..similiar to that last storm..though I could see them doing better on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro MOS: SUN 18Z 08-JAN 0.5 -0.9 1009 99 100 0.25 546 539 MON 00Z 09-JAN 1.1 -1.3 999 97 100 0.62 538 539 MON 06Z 09-JAN 0.0 -6.0 1002 86 95 0.48 529 527 MON 12Z 09-JAN -5.8 -7.8 1009 83 24 0.02 531 523 I don't think that's MOS. I think it's just the op gridpoint interpolations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Good luck guys...I'm pulling for the snow starved. This forum is no fun when it doesn't snow in SNE. One of these has got to work out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There must be a few weenie members in there because the ensembles are colder, but I would naturally expect them to be a little less amped up then the op. Edit: the op run is basically the warmest, but I've seen that before. I wouldn't read into it yet, being this far out. I have 0.25"+ QPF for all of SNE up to a line from CON to PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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