J.Spin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I managed to catch the on-air forecasts from Bob Minsenberger, Mark Breen, and Roger Hill this morning, and the general consensus for this area in the upcoming event was a start tomorrow morning, a general 2 to 6 inches of snow east of the Greens with spots up to 8 inches for the higher elevations. That’s followed by a dry slot later in the day extending into Thursday night/Friday, and then the second round of snow on Friday with 2 to 4 inches in the valleys and notably more in the mountains due to the upslope. Bob Minsenberger was the only one that threw out a guess on the sum total for the whole big event, but his estimate was a foot to a foot and half of snow for the Greens. Reading the forecast discussion of the BTV NWS, it sounds like they have similar thoughts; the point forecast for here tomorrow is 3 to 7 inches with a Winter Weather Advisory in place. The latest BTV advisory and snow estimate maps are below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 J-Spin- I too went with some spots getting 18 or so when this all over. That upslope period will be pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like it should be fun. I'd better dust off and start up the plow truck, which has been sitting idle for many weeks. I've used it only once this season so far--the day before Thanksgiving event was enough to plow. The only other time I plowed this year was from the 12/23 event (~4 here) and I used the tractor for that one. 10F here this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 J-Spin- I too went with some spots getting 18 or so when this all over. That upslope period will be pretty solid. Thx adk – sbos_wx was inquiring last night about the upslope potential with regard to his Bolton ski plans – I figured you or Powderfreak would be the guys to respond with the latest thoughts. I’ll let him know to check in here. Are you planning to do any updates to your thoughts at Famous Internet Skiers? – I’ll refer him there as well regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have a full write up at FIS. The upslope potential is there for sure. I'm going with 5-8 overall upslope for Bolton. THinking 5-6 front end, 5-8 back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have a full write up at FIS.The upslope potential is there for sure. I'm going with 5-8 overall upslope for Bolton. THinking 5-6 front end, 5-8 back end. Thx adk, I passed along the link to your write up in the main storm thread, so hopefully he’ll get a chance to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I see that BTV updated their storm total snowfall forecast map from this morning; it seems more in line with what our point forecast says now. I’ve added the old (top) and new (bottom) maps below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpetrics Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.? Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks! Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teleskier_vt Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.? Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks! Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker... I believe the new storm map reflects the time period of the WSW, which ends at 7 pm Thursday. It will be interesting to see if they extend the WSW to cover the Friday event, or hoist a new warning. I agree that the change in map time frame is confusing. It confused me initially, as well. I am not sure why the first map went all the way to Friday 7 pm. Was that map pre-WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.? Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks! Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker... I believe that NWS is only producing their snowmaps for the next round because they don't do snow maps for snow that's more than 36 hours away. Or at least thats what I was lead to believe once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PyroCu Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.? Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks! Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker... The "old" map was a technical error. The current map represents the snowfall expected with the winter weather advisory (effective through 7pm Thursday). There will be additional snowfall Friday, but the graphic is meant to represent the snowfall for the advisory period. There are other ways to see the snowfall forecast for Friday, including the "hourly weather graph" available as a link from the NWS point and click pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpetrics Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I believe that NWS is only producing their snowmaps for the next round because they don't do snow maps for snow that's more than 36 hours away. Or at least thats what I was lead to believe once. I'd have thought that too if the OLD map didn't extend through Friday. That's what confuses me... EDIT: looks like the above post answers the question. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I believe that NWS is only producing their snowmaps for the next round because they don't do snow maps for snow that's more than 36 hours away. Or at least thats what I was lead to believe once. Yeah my guess is they do it only for the valid time of the Advisory or Statement... and they generally don't issue like 48+ hour advisories to cover into the pre-dawn morning hours on Saturday when this all ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have a full write up at FIS. The upslope potential is there for sure. I'm going with 5-8 overall upslope for Bolton. THinking 5-6 front end, 5-8 back end. Nice dude... I'm thinking a general 6-10" for the mtns, or basically that's what I expect to fall on my two snow boards, up there. I think there's still a decent bit that can go wrong and I think double digits at the very summits are possible, but may be more the exception than the rule down into the base areas. I like 6-8" for the 1,000-2,000ft band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Jeff is nam screwing us? Oy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nice dude... I'm thinking a general 6-10" for the mtns, or basically that's what I expect to fall on my two snow boards, up there. I think there's still a decent bit that can go wrong and I think double digits at the very summits are possible, but may be more the exception than the rule down into the base areas. I like 6-8" for the 1,000-2,000ft band. Couldn't agree more. This is going to be a 4-18 inch type event. People who don't get above 2000ft are going to scream bust. People who don't get below 2000FT are going to say it was underforecast. Personally I'm still confident that somewhere on the spine is going to get 12-18. Just feels right. Overall I'd say 6-12 with pockets of more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Jeff is nam screwing us? Oy.... It has scaled back here on snow some 4-5" before we changeover, I will take whatever comes, Need to see the rest of the 12z pkg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Couldn't agree more. This is going to be a 4-18 inch type event. People who don't get above 2000ft are going to scream bust. People who don't get below 2000FT are going to say it was underforecast. Personally I'm still confident that somewhere on the spine is going to get 12-18. Just feels right. Overall I'd say 6-12 with pockets of more. Thanks. your forecasts are invaluable especially to those of us driving up from distant lands. I ran into a skier from NY last night who wasnt planning on coming up until saturday night based on the limited snow forecasted by NWS. I pointed him in your direction at FIS. how do you see the wind situation? looks like friday might have wind hold issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It has scaled back here on snow some 4-5" before we changeover, I will take whatever comes, Need to see the rest of the 12z pkg Seems to be the Americans v. the Foreigners. I hope the Americans get pwned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks. your forecasts are invaluable especially to those of us driving up from distant lands. I ran into a skier from NY last night who wasnt planning on coming up until saturday night based on the limited snow forecasted by NWS. I pointed him in your direction at FIS. how do you see the wind situation? looks like friday might have wind hold issues. Very possible. However I doubt the wind holds will be in the normal places. Strough southerly winds from the angle forecasted on friday aren't that typical (we do get strong pre-frontal winds in winter quite often but those come w/sw as opposed to almost due south). So really it's going to be a go see what happens sorta deal on friday afternoon. One thing is for sure, if you take the model runs verbatim people will be saying "this storm wasn't a big deal" till around 2pm friday when all of a sudden like white death will be upon them with 50mph winds and snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Seems to be the Americans v. the Foreigners. I hope the Americans get pwned. They usually do....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Very possible. However I doubt the wind holds will be in the normal places. Strough southerly winds from the angle forecasted on friday aren't that typical (we do get strong pre-frontal winds in winter quite often but those come w/sw as opposed to almost due south). So really it's going to be a go see what happens sorta deal on friday afternoon. One thing is for sure, if you take the model runs verbatim people will be saying "this storm wasn't a big deal" till around 2pm friday when all of a sudden like white death will be upon them with 50mph winds and snow squalls. I love it! Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It has scaled back here on snow some 4-5" before we changeover, I will take whatever comes, Need to see the rest of the 12z pkg Ah, figures. We just can't get this crappy winter going. 3" of slop in MBY is what I'm expecting. Better than the washout that was forecast last week though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Guys thanks for the help. Ill be skiing friday instead of Thursday. Actually read the famous internet skiers site by mistake! What an awesome job you guys do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just checked out NWS BTV and looks like they are calling for a warmer storm, with non frozen precip Friday until afternoon. PRECIPITATION INITIALLY WILL BE A LIGHT MIX AS THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THIS OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. Thoughts? Trying to determine if I am coming down with the powder flu on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Don't think friday is the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The "old" map was a technical error. The current map represents the snowfall expected with the winter weather advisory (effective through 7pm Thursday). There will be additional snowfall Friday, but the graphic is meant to represent the snowfall for the advisory period. There are other ways to see the snowfall forecast for Friday, including the "hourly weather graph" available as a link from the NWS point and click pages. Thanks for the info, I figured it was a technical issue like that with the first map going all the way through Friday and containing numbers inconsistent with other parts of the forecast, so I posted the updated map as soon as I saw it. Also, that hourly weather graph option for the chosen location is great – I hadn’t really used it before, but I pasted one below for Mt. Mansfield for those that haven’t seen what the output looks like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Don't think friday is the day. Agreed - Friday is really the dry slot day. One can actually make use of the hourly weather graph type of format that I posted above (mine cuts off Friday at midnight, but you can set it for a different 48-hour chunk and watch the upslope keep going). My call for the most fun in the fresh stuff would be Thursday afternoon/evening, and then Saturday morning onward. Things should be fun right from the get go with this system on Thursday though; it’s not like the mountains are recovering from a thaw-freeze event or anything. Non-manmade surfaces are nice and soft at most elevations, just like PF, adk, and I mentioned in our Stowe reports from the weekend. Things should really just be going from good to great, although if sbos_wx can change around his ski trip timing a bit he might get more optimal conditions (and get to experience some of the upslope snowfall if he also wants that). Friday could be fine, or it could be a bit more “meh” depending on how the dry slot period plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol im getting close to just canceling this trip. I think you all forget it becomes weekend prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol im getting close to just canceling this trip. I think you all forget it becomes weekend prices. I figured, just didn't know if Thursday afternoon/PM was an option - but for that part of the event you could be just as well off or even better at somewhere closer or over in that area of ME/NH that is expected to get the good shot of snow from the front end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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