HurricaneJosh Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Since I'm starting the NATL thread, I have to start the EPAC, too-- especially because this is my personal pet basin. The 2011 EPAC season contrasted sharply with the NATL season-- because it was solid quality. There were only 11 named storms, but a whopping 10 were hurricanes, and 6 were majors. (Also, 5 were Cat 4s!)And of course there was Jova-- my angry little pet microcane that came ashore in a rural part of Mexico with a ferocious shriek late one dark, October night. Whatever category it was, Jova is one of my all-time personal-best cyclones-- a treasure in my portfolio. So, what's 2012 going to bring us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 The season starts in a little over a month-- woo hoo! I always have high hopes for the EPAC. If we have an El Nino, my hope will be even higher. Just in the last seven years, three disastrous NATL seasons were counterbalanced by cool EPAC landfalls-- 2006 (John, Lane), 2009 (Jimena), and 2011 (Jova). Unfortunately, I didn't chase the 2006 cyclones-- that was the year I decided to officially add EPAC to my turf. Here's a short highlights video from my Hurricane Jimena chase. I rode out a direct, bullseye hit from this 90-kt cyclone in a remote fishing village on the Baja Peninsula. It was a nice storm-- I liked it very much-- and I got good footage of the eyewall and eye passing through: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 As I've said before, your videos from the East Pac are great Josh! It's funny how El Nino's are supposed to be associated with good TCs to the East Pac and garbage in the Atlantic, and vise versa for Ninas, yet last year was a Nina and we saw the opposite. So maybe this year we get very few, but high quality, storms in the Atlantic while the East Pac gets a taste of double-digit Don clones ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 As I've said before, your videos from the East Pac are great Josh! Thank you so much. It's funny how El Nino's are supposed to be associated with good TCs to the East Pac and garbage in the Atlantic, and vise versa for Ninas, yet last year was a Nina and we saw the opposite. So maybe this year we get very few, but high quality, storms in the Atlantic while the East Pac gets a taste of double-digit Don clones ? Evil of you to even joke like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The general consensus so far is for less active ATL season which brings in the inverse relationship with EPAC so maybe EPAC will be more active. Globally, the Southern Hemisphere has been definitely below the usual levels of overall activity while WPAC has already produced its first 'phoon so maybe the North Pacific will wake up this year. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The ENSO 1+2 trends are a good sign that we might salvage a decent EPAC season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 There's a new invest, 90E! Looks like the season wants to start a few days earlier than planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 There are actually some decent westerly wind anomalies out near 120W. This probably has a 50/50 shot of developing next week. P.S. I think you mean 90E, since 90P would be in the South Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 There are actually some decent westerly wind anomalies out near 120W. This probably has a 50/50 shot of developing next week. P.S. I think you mean 90E, since 90P would be in the South Pacific. Oops-- yeah. Fixed. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Actually looking fairly good right now. You can see the cyclonic rotation in the loop too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Wow-- looks kinda awesome. Has that outflow thing goin' on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Invest 91E: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 We have a Mandarin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 There has been some speculation about a disturbance spinning up near the Yucatan in the longer range as the monsoonal trough become very active across Central America. The 12Z GFS now shows this feature in the EPAC where the Euro Ensembles have been sniffing development that past couple of days. Both models suggest some Pacific moisture will be thrown NE into the Bay of Campeche/Western Caribbean. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 12, 2012 Author Share Posted May 12, 2012 What's interesting is that some of the models show this recurving N and NE, toward Mexico, which is unusual for early-season systems. But I also notice that the SHIPS isn't too enthused with this system-- barely making it a TS before weakening it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 What's interesting is that some of the models show this recurving N and NE, toward Mexico, which is unusual for early-season systems. But I also notice that the SHIPS isn't too enthused with this system-- barely making it a TS before weakening it. Recurving TC's in the early season aren't that unusual, its just that if they make it too far west before recurving, there is pretty much no chance it will be able to survive due to far colder SSTs and strong vertical wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 12, 2012 Author Share Posted May 12, 2012 Recurving TC's in the early season aren't that unusual, its just that if they make it too far west before recurving, there is pretty much no chance it will be able to survive due to far colder SSTs and strong vertical wind shear. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but significant impacts to the Mexican coast tend to be later in the season, when the cyclones start hooking back. Early and mid-season, it seems like they pretty-much move away from the coast. Obviously, there are exceptions. But if you look at the landfall data, you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 I'd keep an eye SE of 90E. Deep convection has fired today and the Euro is very aggressive regarding development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 12, 2012 Author Share Posted May 12, 2012 I'd keep an eye SE of 90E. Deep convection has fired today and the Euro is very aggressive regarding development. Wow-- look at that. The Euro goes nuts with it! I wasn't expecting to have to chase in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but significant impacts to the Mexican coast tend to be later in the season, when the cyclones start hooking back. Early and mid-season, it seems like they pretty-much move away from the coast. Obviously, there are exceptions. But if you look at the landfall data, you'll see. Oh I agree... I'm just saying the synoptic pattern isn't that unfavorable for recurvature in May/Early June since you can still oftentimes get cutoff lows near Baja California. The main difference is the sea surface temperatures aren't supportive for a tropical cyclone above 15 degrees north so you probably won't get many substancial tropical cyclone landfalls. In any event, while 90E has some potential to become a TC, its already near the stable air located just to its northwest, and the system in general will probably have a short lifespan before its killed off by cold SSTs. Things become more favorable in the latter half of the month, where the ECMWF is suggesting some development beyond the day 5 range near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. I think that period will be a lot more interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Well isn't that interesting...the GFS suggests E of the Yucatan today, but the Canadian finally jumps onboard the EPAC and the Euro after taking a siesta last night is back with a cyclone as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 *cue Josh tingles* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I see we have a Cherry with 90E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I see we have a Cherry with 90E. It's got about 36 hours or so before it runs into stable air west of 110W. Probably about a 50/50 shot (or, you know, 60/40 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I hope this works out for Josh... It'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Meh... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 105.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Meh... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 105.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Meh, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 They keep it well offshore, I see. No recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 They keep it well offshore, I see. No recurve. Yeah, that's been the forecast for this one all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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