Hoosier Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Probably time to start a thread for this event. Models are showing pretty good big picture agreement now in taking the sw cutoff toward the OV and trying to phase, potentially leading to an area of accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Lock it in! Sent from my SPH-D710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Cool, new thread for this storm. Foreign models had it yesterday and the rest of them followed in short order today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I take it that that Dayton won't be seeing any accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 This storm is going to be nearly fully dependent upon how deep the southern stream anomaly is after it kicks out of the Rockies. Given how long this system will sit and slowly fill over the Rockies then eject across the plains...it doesn't seem terribly likely that the NAM will be correct with a deep PV (NAM has a sub-546 500 hpa low) and a negative tilt storm with a large defo band across the CCB. But it will be worth watching trends. ECMWF does have some light accumulating snow with this system as it features a better phase with the northern stream. Keep into consideration that the ECMWF current run is a nearly ideal phase...seasonal trends and the dominant +AO regime suggest the northern stream will be a dominant feature once again, so care must be taken into buying the ECMWF at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Triple phasers, which this event is, are never fun. Essentially Polar Vortex phasing with the Pacific wave ejecting off the Pacific Jet firehose crossing the Canadian Rockies phasing with that migratory cutoff PV. Sums up this entire winter where every event has been a needle threading event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Triple phasers, which this event is, are never fun. Essentially Polar Vortex phasing with the Pacific wave ejecting off the Pacific Jet firehose crossing the Canadian Rockies phasing with that migratory cutoff PV. Sums up this entire winter where every event has been a needle threading event. I thought triple phasers created the biggest storms? Or am I getting that confused with something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I thought triple phasers created the biggest storms? Or am I getting that confused with something else? They can. The problem (and frustrating part) is getting everything to fall in line for them to happen successfully. If one thing in the process goes amiss (which happens quite often) then the (non) system is as good as crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I thought triple phasers created the biggest storms? Or am I getting that confused with something else? They can be. Superstorm 93 was a triple phase. The monster storms associated with a triple phase are few and far between though since the stars need to align for everything to work perfectly to see epic storms of such magnitude. But a triple phase does not = monster storm just like a two phase system doesn't = big storm. You can also get epic storms with no phasing at all. There is no recipe for success with winter storms. Chinook on our forums has an awesome page of phasing storms. http://www.greatlake...ing_Storms.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Chinook on our forums has an awesome page of phasing storms. http://www.greatlake...ing_Storms.html The late January 1978 storm was a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The late January 1978 storm was a beast. I would say so. Just an epic phase. Pure weather pron. The pure size of the southern vortex is incredible. Vortex-vortex mergers are incredibly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I would say so. Just an epic phase. Pure weather pron. The pure size of the southern vortex is incredible. Vortex-vortex mergers are incredibly rare. Holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I would say so. Just an epic phase. Pure weather pron. The pure size of the southern vortex is incredible. Vortex-vortex mergers are incredibly rare. I could watch this on loop forever. What a beautiful phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Holy crap! Holy crap is right. That's an awesome map sequence, BI. It brings back memories. Imagine GHD snow with blizzard or near-blizzard conditions for a full day over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 since were alittle OT and talking about phased events...something I put together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 0Z NAM still looks sexy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I would say so. Just an epic phase. Pure weather pron. The pure size of the southern vortex is incredible. Vortex-vortex mergers are incredibly rare. Amazing how that storm managed to happen looking at that Pacific which looks VERY familiar. Thus crappy. That indeed was a thread the needle event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 0z NAM comes in alittle slower and a tad stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 00z NAM came pretty far nrthward this run. Even we're flirting with the dry slot now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 00z NAM came pretty far nrthward this run. Even we're flirting with the dry slot now... Not really...H7 low passes over LAF on both of the last runs. Detroit would be fine on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 If I took the NAM seriously outside of 48 hours, this winter would be fantastic. I'm with baro here, I just don't buy the NAM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 since were alittle OT and talking about phased events...something I put together I think the Superstorm was already sub 990 mb in the GOM. Just an amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Not really...H7 low passes over LAF on both of the last runs. Detroit would be fine on this run. Nice run...can't afford much northward shift though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Nice run...can't afford much northward shift though lol I can Lets see what the GFS does, as always its going to be a forecasting headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think the Superstorm was already sub 990 mb in the GOM. Just an amazing storm. I believe so, then 980mb around the GA/SC border. Also had the sickest upper level jet coupling I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 bump The NAM has been horrible. No reason to pay too much attention to it until it proves to be worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Hopefully this thing produces some measurable snow somewhere...anywhere in the region. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 bump Well, duh. The NAM has been atrocious this winter, I think everyone knows that. But it's eye candy right now...nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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