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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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ECMWF: Kevin gets a foot of snow Christmas morning. I get five inches in my usual fringe position, but I wouldn't complain.

I remain skeptical about the Euro. I think it has potential to be a complete non-event here...it threaded the needle the 00z run.

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Euro ensembles have a semblance of this well se, but it's hinting at it. I think at some point this week, we'll have some wintry wx.

Definitely a threat there but not liking how easy it is for the 6z GFS to turn that into a near toaster bath solution for Christmas day with a primary heading towards the St Lawrence Valley with secondary development over SNE. If we end up with this going so far NW that it rains up here I'm going to lose it, lol.

Hit SNE, hit NNE, or whiff but for the love of god do not go west of here.

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Definitely a threat there but not liking how easy it is for the 6z GFS to turn that into a near toaster bath solution for Christmas day with a primary heading towards the St Lawrence Valley with secondary development over SNE. If we end up with this going so far NW that it rains up here I'm going to lose it, lol.

Hit SNE, hit NNE, or whiff but for the love of god do not go west of here.

Yeah that's what I mean...not much room for error.

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Scootnanny..can you talk about the Thursday nite/Friday possible event ?

Well it's kind of a sheared out mess so QPF may be limited. Colder air will be coming in so it may be a rain or mix type deal to begin with, but it looks very light at this time.

After that, cold high pressure may build in with onshore flow, so could be periods of -SN if that happens. Then we wait and see to whatever happens down the coast. That's a real toss up right now and not much room for error. The thing is....neither one of these are high confidence and could crap out as we get closer.

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Well it's kind of a sheared out mess so QPF may be limited. Colder air will be coming in so it may be a rain or mix type deal to begin with, but it looks very light at this time.

After that, cold high pressure may build in with onshore flow, so could be periods of -SN if that happens. Then we wait and see to whatever happens down the coast. That's a real toss up right now and not much room for error. The thing is....neither one of these are high confidence and could crap out as we get closer.

Key right now is just to hope we can sneak in some light snow at week's end. I'd say I'm cautiously scooter optimistic that we can have some light mood snows around Friday eve into maybe some of Xmas eve.

Christmas day...eh...6 days out and requires another perfect deal

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Key right now is just to hope we can sneak in some light snow at week's end. I'd say I'm cautiously scooter optimistic that we can have some light mood snows around Friday eve into maybe some of Xmas eve.

Christmas day...eh...6 days out and requires another perfect deal

I took a look at the euro RH fields. They have that look where it could be periods of -SN with a decent amount of mid level RH streaming northeast from the deep south, as well as onshore flow providing a little more moisture. Almost like a constant mid level WAA type stuff from that trough in the central and southern Plains.

Christmas looks like will need everything perfect.

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LOL good call out... I only look at the EURO PSU Ewall maps so they really don't tell me all that much. I have to use our crappy American models for most of my stuff.

PF - you don't find all the ECMWF stuff at Weather Underground useful? Perhaps you need more for your professional stuff, but I find it amazing how you can get all those different types of maps for every 3 hours and you can really zoom in as far as you want. That makes it much easier for me than trying to scrutinize the tiny 4-panel maps available at some places.

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Key right now is just to hope we can sneak in some light snow at week's end. I'd say I'm cautiously scooter optimistic that we can have some light mood snows around Friday eve into maybe some of Xmas eve.

Christmas day...eh...6 days out and requires another perfect deal

I took a look at the euro RH fields. They have that look where it could be periods of -SN with a decent amount of mid level RH streaming northeast from the deep south, as well as onshore flow providing a little more moisture. Almost like a constant mid level WAA type stuff from that trough in the central and southern Plains.

Christmas looks like will need everything perfect.

If that scenario happens later this week..are we talking about like a 1-3 inch type deal?

Something like that?

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