Logan11 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Previous discussion. http://www.americanw...ued/page__st__0 ECMWF: Kevin gets a foot of snow Christmas morning. I get five inches in my usual fringe position, but I wouldn't complain. Yep ..Kevin's Christmas miracle is on the 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 ECMWF: Kevin gets a foot of snow Christmas morning. I get five inches in my usual fringe position, but I wouldn't complain. I remain skeptical about the Euro. I think it has potential to be a complete non-event here...it threaded the needle the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro ensembles have a semblance of this well se, but it's hinting at it. I think at some point this week, we'll have some wintry wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 What a night of model runs..You can't help but feel good this morning. 2 snow events in a horrific pattern. Locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 What a night of model runs..You can't help but fell good this morning. 2 snow events in a horrific pattern. Locked in Lets not go overboard. It's still sort of threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro ensembles have a semblance of this well se, but it's hinting at it. I think at some point this week, we'll have some wintry wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 What a night of model runs..You can't help but feel good this morning. 2 snow events in a horrific pattern. Locked in All these wintry threats isn't healthy. We should all take time away from the board and spend it with family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just threw the first facebook salvo across the bow. Fear and panic strikes. Cancel your flights now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro ensembles have a semblance of this well se, but it's hinting at it. I think at some point this week, we'll have some wintry wx. Definitely a threat there but not liking how easy it is for the 6z GFS to turn that into a near toaster bath solution for Christmas day with a primary heading towards the St Lawrence Valley with secondary development over SNE. If we end up with this going so far NW that it rains up here I'm going to lose it, lol. Hit SNE, hit NNE, or whiff but for the love of god do not go west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 What a night of model runs..You can't help but feel good this morning. 2 snow events in a horrific pattern. Locked in Cybil feels good. We should all be confident. Like I said in the other thread, you're better focusing on events than pattern. Bad patterns can still produce opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Thursday night has trended colder..Looks like that is the first snow event this week..esp inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Definitely a threat there but not liking how easy it is for the 6z GFS to turn that into a near toaster bath solution for Christmas day with a primary heading towards the St Lawrence Valley with secondary development over SNE. If we end up with this going so far NW that it rains up here I'm going to lose it, lol. Hit SNE, hit NNE, or whiff but for the love of god do not go west of here. Yeah that's what I mean...not much room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Thursday night has trended colder..Looks like that is the first snow event this week..esp inland You would be great at ski area marketing. I can't even find the event you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 BUCKLE UP, it's going to be a wild ride. Yeah!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 See Euro and stop using the GFS for anything LOL good call out... I only look at the EURO PSU Ewall maps so they really don't tell me all that much. I have to use our crappy American models for most of my stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm pretty confident we'll have snow otg by week's end. Bet ftw? Hey Pete....you said the darkest moment is nigh or something ing like that the sun came put and we have snow in the guidance, a cold shot that overperperformed....life is good for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pattern still is pretty bad after this week, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pattern still is pretty bad after this week, unfortunately. Who cares. Cold and snowy days in this pattern are savored. We take what we get. Remember 2007-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Who cares. Cold and snowy days in this pattern are savored. We take what we get. Remember 2007-08. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Scootnanny..can you talk about the Thursday nite/Friday possible event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Scootnanny..can you talk about the Thursday nite/Friday possible event ? Well it's kind of a sheared out mess so QPF may be limited. Colder air will be coming in so it may be a rain or mix type deal to begin with, but it looks very light at this time. After that, cold high pressure may build in with onshore flow, so could be periods of -SN if that happens. Then we wait and see to whatever happens down the coast. That's a real toss up right now and not much room for error. The thing is....neither one of these are high confidence and could crap out as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At least there is something to follow in this otherwise dreadful pattern, We are going to need some luck with the track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Well it's kind of a sheared out mess so QPF may be limited. Colder air will be coming in so it may be a rain or mix type deal to begin with, but it looks very light at this time. After that, cold high pressure may build in with onshore flow, so could be periods of -SN if that happens. Then we wait and see to whatever happens down the coast. That's a real toss up right now and not much room for error. The thing is....neither one of these are high confidence and could crap out as we get closer. Key right now is just to hope we can sneak in some light snow at week's end. I'd say I'm cautiously scooter optimistic that we can have some light mood snows around Friday eve into maybe some of Xmas eve. Christmas day...eh...6 days out and requires another perfect deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Key right now is just to hope we can sneak in some light snow at week's end. I'd say I'm cautiously scooter optimistic that we can have some light mood snows around Friday eve into maybe some of Xmas eve. Christmas day...eh...6 days out and requires another perfect deal I took a look at the euro RH fields. They have that look where it could be periods of -SN with a decent amount of mid level RH streaming northeast from the deep south, as well as onshore flow providing a little more moisture. Almost like a constant mid level WAA type stuff from that trough in the central and southern Plains. Christmas looks like will need everything perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 LOL good call out... I only look at the EURO PSU Ewall maps so they really don't tell me all that much. I have to use our crappy American models for most of my stuff. PF - you don't find all the ECMWF stuff at Weather Underground useful? Perhaps you need more for your professional stuff, but I find it amazing how you can get all those different types of maps for every 3 hours and you can really zoom in as far as you want. That makes it much easier for me than trying to scrutinize the tiny 4-panel maps available at some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I suppose also that there may be some very light SN Tuesday night if a batch of moisture can lift ne from the big storm out in TX. That's just a maybe scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 My worry is that the so called Christmas miracle could bet a wet one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Key right now is just to hope we can sneak in some light snow at week's end. I'd say I'm cautiously scooter optimistic that we can have some light mood snows around Friday eve into maybe some of Xmas eve. Christmas day...eh...6 days out and requires another perfect deal I took a look at the euro RH fields. They have that look where it could be periods of -SN with a decent amount of mid level RH streaming northeast from the deep south, as well as onshore flow providing a little more moisture. Almost like a constant mid level WAA type stuff from that trough in the central and southern Plains. Christmas looks like will need everything perfect. If that scenario happens later this week..are we talking about like a 1-3 inch type deal? Something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 My worry is that the so called Christmas miracle could bet a wet one. Not with the Euro ens SE and the op with that track. Better chance of it being a whiff than cutting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If that scenario happens later this week..are we talking about like a 1-3 inch type deal? Something like that? Eh, maybe if we are lucky. It's starts out pretty warm. Would likely be closer to an inch if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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