ouamber Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey Okie, do you mind explaining what the maps above are showing?? And why the WOW? LOL...need someone to explain this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey Okie, do you mind explaining what the maps above are showing?? And why the WOW? LOL...need someone to explain this. Stratosphere vortex super-weak and split at almost all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, I'm not a met...what does that mean for getting colder air in Oklahoma? particularly Tulsa:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, I'm not a met...what does that mean for getting colder air in Oklahoma? particularly Tulsa:) Severe blocking likely down the road... maybe VERY cold February... could be some fun and games with the Jets as well during that time. Oh, and I'm from Tulsa too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12Z GFS... WOW!!! The vortex is so weak on the last image I'm not sure if I'm even seeing it correctly. Good to see things maybe falling in line with the solar based predictions for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not sure how it "should" play out, but in this instance we do have the models holding firm on a +NAO look despite the AO going negative. My point was that the AO itself is more connected to troposphere/stratosphere coupling. The NAO branch is not correlated well with the stratopshere at all, rather just tropospheric influences forcing a block up into Greenland. So in essence what I'm saying is if there is an instance where the AO goes negative and the NAO remains positive, perhaps this is a situation for that. Knowing where the tropospheric Polar Vortex is, wouldn't you expect the +NAO to remain for a bit longer after the -AO develops? I feel it'd be the end of January where the east finally sees a sustained cold period arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 A lot of wishcasting here. There is much work to do. The 30mb winds really need to turn around and those EP flux vectors still aren't in a favorable state. The warming is doing some damage, but things have been so stable, it really will take a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 AO & NAO do travel pretty much hand in hand during the winter. The extent of the anomaly varies between the 2 at any given time but it is very uncommon for the anomalies to be opposites. Especially when were dealing with +1.0 or -1.0 or more. I've run AO daily graphs for 14 winters. I've been trying to find time to run the NAO daily numerical data and put it into graphical format so they can be compared side by side. I'm pretty sure I know the answer already but I'm still curious so I'll get around to it in the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 AO & NAO do travel pretty much hand in hand during the winter. The extent of the anomaly varies between the 2 at any given time but it is very uncommon for the anomalies to be opposites. Especially when were dealing with +1.0 or -1.0 or more. I've run AO daily graphs for 14 winters. I've been trying to find time to run the NAO daily numerical data and put it into graphical format so they can be compared side by side. I'm pretty sure I know the answer already but I'm still curious so I'll get around to it in the next couple of weeks. I think the correlation is like 0.82. It's pretty high...but you can occasionally get one negative and the other positive. It would seem difficult for one to be in the tank and not the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think the correlation is like 0.82. It's pretty high...but you can occasionally get one negative and the other positive. It would seem difficult for one to be in the tank and not the other. Exactly. That's what I was seeing when I was breezing over the daily data. It's possible to have one negative and one positive but only when the anomaly is inside of 1 standard deviation one way or the other. Once I run the graphs I'll be certain, but I'm pretty sure the occurances of having one index aoa +1 and the other aob -1 is either extremely rare or just plain doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Exactly. That's what I was seeing when I was breezing over the daily data. It's possible to have one negative and one positive but only when the anomaly is inside of 1 standard deviation one way or the other. Once I run the graphs I'll be certain, but I'm pretty sure the occurances of having one index aoa +1 and the other aob -1 is either extremely rare or just plain doesn't happen. I think the problem is WHERE the positive anomalies at 500mb are in relation to Greenland. The past 2 winters, the -AO was centered throughout the arctic or even leaning toward the North Atlantic. The latest developments show the positive anomalies on the opposite side of the world from Greenland. This allows negative anomalies in Northern Canada to Greenland, with a continuing +NAO. If the correlation between AO and NAO is .82, this is the type of pattern that covers the other .18 In short, we're not there-yet. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshAJ Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think the Stratospheric Warming event will give us a "window of opportunity" for a cold shot, but I don't think it will be "sustained" anytime soon until AO and NAO get out of major positive territory. As for the energy markets, I think many of the Nat Gas traders have pretty much given up on cold and just Winter in general...Nat gas prices are at 28 month lows and we have a ton of storage even with this "hint" of sustained cold through the vendors. Many of the vendors are already showing strong cold in the 6-10 and 11-15 throughout Canada and less warmth in the US. Yet the markets don't care. So, I think in terms of energy trading...the traders will start focusing on Summer for any sustained upward momentum in Nat Gas! Winter's over (from an energy trader perspective). What do you think? AJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 A lot of wishcasting here. There is much work to do. The 30mb winds really need to turn around and those EP flux vectors still aren't in a favorable state. The warming is doing some damage, but things have been so stable, it really will take a while. People need to stop wishing for something that might bring us a flake 3 weeks from now. It's just not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If the correlation between AO and NAO is .82, this is the type of pattern that covers the other .18 In short, we're not there-yet. Glenn Heh, it is painful but true when you put it that way. It's been a tough winter for pretty much the entire country to get the teleconnections aligned right for real winter weather. December was just stuck in the crapper. Now that things are moving around again the elusive favorable pattern just can't quite align itself right. The real kick in the teeth will come later when we do get a period of a -ao/nao but the nao is east based so it can't interact properly with the -ao and the trough axis is too far east to produce any winter weather of consequence along the east coast (except for LES of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Heh, it is painful but true when you put it that way. It's been a tough winter for pretty much the entire country to get the teleconnections aligned right for real winter weather. December was just stuck in the crapper. Now that things are moving around again the elusive favorable pattern just can't quite align itself right. The real kick in the teeth will come later when we do get a period of a -ao/nao but the nao is east based so it can't interact properly with the ao and the trough axis is too far east to produce any winter weather of consequence along the east coast (except for LES of course). Reverse psychology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What do we need to see to force the Arctic air southward? -NAO? -EPO? Chuck Norris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Unfortunately, on a grander scale, the stratospheric connections (HT relationships mostly) couldn't have gone worse this winter. We started with an active sun (solar flux/spots reached predicted max values for a time) and an old +QBO regime and now we are heading into a -QBO regime as the sun begins a decline. The flux/ TSI will slowly come down and will take longer to respond to the lessening spots. By the time that is complete, we'll have the exact opposite state you would want for a warming come Feb and Mar (+QBO / active sun). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 A lot of wishcasting here. There is much work to do. The 30mb winds really need to turn around and those EP flux vectors still aren't in a favorable state. The warming is doing some damage, but things have been so stable, it really will take a while. A certain pro met says that the EP flux vectors at that level do not matter that it is at 90 mb where it matters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 A certain pro met says that the EP flux vectors at that level do not matter that it is at 90 mb where it matters... The troposphere/stratosphere combo still points to the equator. Besides, if you want to take the troposphere into account..here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Unfortunately, on a grander scale, the stratospheric connections (HT relationships mostly) couldn't have gone worse this winter. We started with an active sun (solar flux/spots reached predicted max values for a time) and an old +QBO regime and now we are heading into a -QBO regime as the sun begins a decline. The flux/ TSI will slowly come down and will take longer to respond to the lessening spots. By the time that is complete, we'll have the exact opposite state you would want for a warming come Feb and Mar (+QBO / active sun). The weird state of the QBO probably helped muck things up. We just caught it at a bad time I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll repost a couple of images, as the Euro EPV forecasts for 10hpa don't tell the whole picture. Fig. 1 EP flux the past 8 days Fig 2. For propagation we want the figures in the top left There are no forecasted values there, but the picture is the same... closer to the top right in Fig. 2, unfavorable for propagation. Fig. 2 is the 10 day average prior to the SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The weird state of the QBO probably helped muck things up. We just caught it at a bad time I think. That was part of it but not the whole story. The solar state rising to levels not predicted until max was also a major problem. This kept the winds at the equatorial stratopause westerly, which propagated to the poles early winter. The solar state on its own can create easterly wind anomalies and perturb the AO. Having some downwelling stratospheric warming is one of the rarest ways to get a -AO and it is what everyone seems to look for every year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That was part of it but not the whole story. The solar state rising to levels not predicted until max was also a major problem. This kept the winds at the equatorial stratopause westerly, which propagated to the poles early winter. The solar state on its own can create easterly wind anomalies and perturb the AO. Having some downwelling stratospheric warming is one of the rarest ways to get a -AO and it is what everyone seems to look for every year! Yeah I agree...just saying we caught the QBO in a weird state. I think people started mentioning the solar aspect in October when we started getting blasted with activity. So are you saying the increased solar help keep the QBO more positive than it should have been? In other words, slowed the progression of the +QBO to -QBO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah I agree...just saying we caught the QBO in a weird state. I think people started mentioning the solar aspect in October when we started getting blasted with activity. So are you saying the increased solar help keep the QBO more positive than it should have been? In other words, slowed the progression of the +QBO to -QBO? Well, yes, the sun can modulate the QBO but I was talking about winds way up there in the stratopause. There is an oscillation called the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) which is a fairly predictable zonal wind switch high up in the Equatorial Stratopause (yes I know, another oscillation). It switches winds between equinoxes and solstices. This past early winter / late fall and last year's early winter/late fall saw an unprecedented lack of wind reversal. This year: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2011.gif'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2011.gif Last year: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2010.gif'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2010.gif Pick any other year to see something more normal: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ While data is scarce, early research suggests it is statistically significant to the AO what the winds are doing at this level. That can propagate down into the polar vortex and allow for internal breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well, yes, the sun can modulate the QBO but I was talking about winds way up there in the stratopause. There is an oscillation called the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) which is a fairly predictable zonal wind switch high up in the Equatorial Stratopause (yes I know, another oscillation). It switches winds between equinoxes and solstices. This past early winter / late fall and last year's early winter/late fall saw an unprecedented lack of wind reversal. This year: http://www.cpc.ncep....ALL_EQ_2011.gif Last year: http://www.cpc.ncep....ALL_EQ_2010.gif Pick any other year to see something more normal: http://www.cpc.ncep....ere/strat-trop/ While data is scarce, early research suggests it is statistically significant to the AO what the winds are doing at this level. That can propagate down into the polar vortex and allow for internal breaking. That's interesting, I've never heard it spelled out like that. I heard of the SAO, but nothing much more than that. Thanks for that tidbit. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That's interesting, I've never heard it spelled out like that. I heard of the SAO, but nothing much more than that. Thanks for that tidbit. Good stuff. It is unfortunate that our data is lacking in this department because the theories are sound and it makes sense. I know the last two years were quite extreme with the SAO but it would be nice to have some sort of index derived from these winds to see how strong a particular zonal state is behaving. Between the SAO extended, westerly QBO and active sun, it is no wonder we had an extended autumn this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That was part of it but not the whole story. The solar state rising to levels not predicted until max was also a major problem. This kept the winds at the equatorial stratopause westerly, which propagated to the poles early winter. The solar state on its own can create easterly wind anomalies and perturb the AO. Having some downwelling stratospheric warming is one of the rarest ways to get a -AO and it is what everyone seems to look for every year! And if the 12Z GFS is right, we're gonna get it big time in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This thread was started in early december and I still see images being posted of 384 hour forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Be careful with the long range GFS 10mb forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow just keeping up with this stuff is real interesting. So much knowledge being past around. Great read guys, keep up the good work and more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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