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Thursday Wintry Threat

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

I've just gone over most of the data for today as I was out most of today...we are definitely a lot closer to getting almost a perfect thread the needle track on the vortmax and strength.

Our first two significant SNE events will be thread the needle types...in the case of 10/29 a really tiny needle

NAM has you and WeatherMA jackpotting

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Hey Will, I am out of the loop on this puppy, life is so busy right now, but what would you think for my area down here, I suppose my western location helps while being near LIS and the marine influence hurts.

I was thinking rain changing to snow, maybe a coating??

Hope all is well.

Yeah you prob have a shot at rain to snow...there's still time for things to shift quite a bit and the boundary layer is going to be a huge issue in this storm most likely. This storm still has the same issues it always has had...the snow area will be relatively narrow on the NW side...at least the >4" snows. We might see a lot of 1-4" slushy amounts SE of that stripe.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Yeah you prob have a shot at rain to snow...there's still time for things to shift quite a bit and the boundary layer is going to be a huge issue in this storm most likely. This storm still has the same issues it always has had...the snow area will be relatively narrow on the NW side...at least the >4" snows. We might see a lot of 1-4" slushy amounts SE of that stripe.

Thanks Will!

Happy Festivus

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I know it is deamplifying, but I like the potency of the vortmax for a band of heavy snows on the NW side. That's probably going to produce for someone. The NAM is really hitting that aspect hard.

It's a shame for my area to have a rotten airmass at first...and it's not even due to marine taint...just leftover crud as the mid levels cool off the further west you go. Just hoping for at least a coating. I have Thursday off to enjoy whatever happens.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I wonder if it is possible for you to go a day on here without mentioning some sort of "easterners" or lower elevation snow climo.

What is your major problem Will? We all have different desires for the ultimate track of this and every storm that comes through. You've been coming at me for two days now. Got a problem with me? How about sending me a PM instead of sniping in the open forum. This holier than thou act of yours gets old too. You play the same elevation/latitude card with Blizz and Ray all the time. Are you so comically challenged you don't realize I'm kidding around? Did you read the post I made this morning to your overnight attack on my character? Do you really think that I think I'm better because I get more snow? Here's a big flare!!!! It's all a fookin' goof!!!! The annual snow totals from anywhere in SNE are laughable, mine included. I couldn't care less that Litchfieldlibations gets way less snow than me and he couldn't really care less that I get more than him yet we rib each other while behind the scenes we wish each other happy holidays and best of luck with our football teams. When I say everything east of the CT.River is the CP do you think I really believe that? Please. You must be kidding. Again, I'll spell it out for you to be absolutely clear, I don't equate a person's annual snowfall average with their worth as a person. I don't think that I am in some way special because I live in a snowy spot (relative to the rest of SNE). You insult my intelligence if that is what you truly think I'm about.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I know it is deamplifying, but I like the potency of the vortmax for a band of heavy snows on the NW side. That's probably going to produce for someone. The NAM is really hitting that aspect hard.

It's a shame for my area to have a rotten airmass at first...and it's not even due to marine taint...just leftover crud as the mid levels cool off the further west you go. Just hoping for at least a coating. I have Thursday off to enjoy whatever happens.

Some hints at some banding with some marginal -epv overlaid with some good mid level frontogenesis in n nj up into w ct and c/w ma on that 18z run....short lived but there

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted

What is your major problem Will? We all have different desires for the ultimate track of this and every storm that comes through. You've been coming at me for two days now. Got a problem with me? How about sending me a PM instead of sniping in the open forum. This holier than thou act of yours gets old too. You play the same elevation/latitude card with Blizz and Ray all the time. Are you so comically challenged you don't realize I'm kidding around? Did you read the post I made this morning to your overnight attack on my character? Do you really think that I think I'm better because I get more snow? Here's a big flare!!!! It's all a fookin' goof!!!! The annual snow totals from anywhere in SNE are laughable, mine included. I couldn't care less that Litchfieldlibations gets way less snow than me and he couldn't really care less that I get more than him yet we rib each other while behind the scenes we wish each other happy holidays and best of luck with our football teams. When I say everything east of the CT.River is the CP do you think I really believe that? Please. You must be kidding. Again, I'll spell it out for you to be absolutely clear, I don't equate a person's annual snowfall average with their worth as a person. I don't think that I am in some way special because I live in a snowy spot (relative to the rest of SNE). You insult my intelligence if that is what you truly think I'm about.

:popcorn:

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Welcome back home for the Rev..lalalalalalala locking up 4-8. The bus is fired up and ready to rock. I have room for 40 weenies. Who's in?

I'm in :scooter:

FWIW, all news outlets saying this isn't going to be a big deal for anyone. I guess that settles it.

What's more interesting then the fact that they are downplaying it...is they are downplaying it in the wrong direction. Bruchard has a chance of less then 2" and doesn't mention rain...favoring the scrape scenario. If the advisory or low end warning snows don't work out, I would think it would be because it's amped up and not because its OTS...we'll see. There's been many times where day 3 or 4 the news is really down playing the storm and you wake up the next morning and you see them calling for 4-8". Most stations stay conservative until within 48 hours.

Clown

LOL 14" :wub:

I would not mind a snow day Thursday

Sick of looking at green lawns and frisbee playing mets

this. :santa: The timing is perfect.

Let's do this. NAM has it snowing form about 4am to 11am here..couldn't be better timing...gfs is about the same...like 7z to 14z or so.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I stayed out by KBUF on my work trip there in October...that area just seems like surburbia anywhere and not bad. Some neighborhoods of the city (away from downtown) are quite depressed and you see abandoned houses and empty lots where condemned houses once stood as the population just continues to whither away in western NY. Cross the bridge into Ontario and all of a sudden much more affluent....

Not pretty to look at one approach but it's a nice city. I've been there several times and always had a good time.

DT has a wide swath of you guys in the 3-6 with even an inch down to the Cape.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

another piss poor map from whdh

Indeed. Makes no sense...I would agree with that area as best chance of snow...although where they outline the hills and how far south they go may be off...but why write "of less then 2". If all works out like the nam or euro those areas would get 3-6" at least. :huh:

This on the blog from wbz is much better and outlines the potential...but doesn't give specifics as its 60-72hr away.

If this solution occurs there could be several inches of snow in eastern MA by dawn Thursday morning. We will keep you up to date on this as we get more info.
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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Indeed. Makes no sense...I would agree with that area as best chance of snow...although where they outline the hills and how far south they go may be off...but why write "of less then 2". If all works out like the nam or euro those areas would get 3-6" at least. :huh:

Sometimes I wonder if they even look at guidance. Pete B is their only decent forecaster. Other channels blow them away, I wonder if they even care.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

. . . Looks like some just aren't getting the joke.

-lol.

LOL, must be me but I never thought Pete really was serious about any of the flaming of the lowlands. He made that point several years ago that it was all ball busting.

Humbling job this wxforecasting stuff. Lots of crow eating ongoing in the Met world in various formats.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

I'm shocked Kevin hasn't posted this yet. BOX on board :o

BUT WITH THE A GOOD AMOUNT OF

Q-FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH AND

ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED. RIGHT NOW WITH THE CURRENT

TRACK...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL CT AND CENTRAL MASS WILL SEE THE

HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES...WHILE THE I-95 CORRIDOR MAY SEE ONLY 1-2

INCHES. AGAIN THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE

STORM...FOR NOW CAN ONLY SAY SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT SNOW ACCUMS

WILL BE UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. PLEASE STAY TUNE FOR FORECAST UPDATES

INVOLVING THIS COASTAL STORM.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What is your major problem Will? We all have different desires for the ultimate track of this and every storm that comes through. You've been coming at me for two days now. Got a problem with me? How about sending me a PM instead of sniping in the open forum. This holier than thou act of yours gets old too. You play the same elevation/latitude card with Blizz and Ray all the time. Are you so comically challenged you don't realize I'm kidding around? Did you read the post I made this morning to your overnight attack on my character? Do you really think that I think I'm better because I get more snow? Here's a big flare!!!! It's all a fookin' goof!!!! The annual snow totals from anywhere in SNE are laughable, mine included. I couldn't care less that Litchfieldlibations gets way less snow than me and he couldn't really care less that I get more than him yet we rib each other while behind the scenes we wish each other happy holidays and best of luck with our football teams. When I say everything east of the CT.River is the CP do you think I really believe that? Please. You must be kidding. Again, I'll spell it out for you to be absolutely clear, I don't equate a person's annual snowfall average with their worth as a person. I don't think that I am in some way special because I live in a snowy spot (relative to the rest of SNE). You insult my intelligence if that is what you truly think I'm about.

lol

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I like how Will just stops in, makes one post about how it looks better, and leaves. lol

Isnt much to say that hasn't already been rehashed in this thread. I'll comment as the 00z suite comes out....I'm still a tad skeptical of this whole setup but we might sneak the perfect vortmax track and strength combo after all. Hopefully it trends like the 18z NAM.

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