donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I really don't know what the policy on profanities are on the board, but I don't know of any other way to say this: You're ****ing depressing, man. Educational. But, depressing. If it's a no-no, I'm sure a mod will be along shortly to edit... Last winter was a lot more fun. I hate the possible warm outcome as much as anyone here. This morning's 60° temperatures were as depressing as it can get in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Last winter was a lot more fun. I hate the possible warm outcome as much as anyone here. This morning's 60° temperatures were as depressing as it can get in December. Slept with the a/c on last night courtesy of dew point at 62*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Last winter was a lot more fun. I hate the possible warm outcome as much as anyone here. This morning's 60° temperatures were as depressing as it can get in December. don, do you see any hope in the near future, maybe, mid-january/febuary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 If we are able to do a flip like we did last year, it's still is going to take time. The AO dropped below -5 on 12/18/10 and didn't rebound positive until later in January. So if we get lucky this year, maybe by early January we will see a pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 don, do you see any hope in the near future, maybe, mid-january/febuary? Thunderbolt, I don't know if I would call January or February the near future. That's still quite far out. Also, I don't know what area you are referring to, but will assume that it is perhaps somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas currently suffering from excessive warmth. Right now, if I had to venture a guess, either January or February (but not both) could have enough cold weather that one of the months might have a near normal temperature anomaly. If everything worked out, one of those months might even have a somewhat below normal anomaly. None of the months will likely be persistently cold, but the cold could match or somewhat exceed the warmth in one of them. The other month could well wind up being much warmer than normal. Presently, I lean toward January as being the coldest month relative to normal based on when the ongoing AO+ regime began. Snowfall opportunities will be hit or miss. I don't expect any KU storms this winter and that will be a trying experience given the frequent KU events of the past two winters. However, a "near miss" where a small area receives a > 10" snowfall or, perhaps more likely, interior cities (Pittsburgh, Allentown, Albany, or Burlington) have a 10" or greater snowfall, is a possibility. I do believe the Great Lakes' cities Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, etc., could see one big event with 10" or more snow at some point. The big cities of the East (Washington to Boston) will probably experience a moderate snowfall (2"-4:/3"-6" type) at some point later this winter. Boston might have the best chance out of the big cities to see a 10" or greater snowfall, but that isn't assured. Changeover cases may predominate. December's snowfall data could add or reduce confidence in these scenarios and, unfortunately, a worse case (<10" seasonal snowfall, inclusive of October's snowfall, in such cities as New York and Philadelphia) is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Thunderbolt, I don't know if I would call January or February the near future. That's still quite far out. Also, I don't know what area you are referring to, but will assume that it is perhaps somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas currently suffering from excessive warmth. Right now, if I had to venture a guess, either January or February (but not both) could have enough cold weather that one of the months might have a near normal temperature anomaly. If everything worked out, one of those months might even have a somewhat below normal anomaly. None of the months will likely be persistently cold, but the cold could match or somewhat exceed the warmth in one of them. The other month could well wind up being much warmer than normal. Presently, I lean toward January as being the coldest month relative to normal based on when the ongoing AO+ regime began. Snowfall opportunities will be hit or miss. I don't expect any KU storms this winter and that will be a trying experience given the frequent KU events of the past two winters. However, a "near miss" where a small area receives a > 10" snowfall or, perhaps more likely, interior cities (Pittsburgh, Allentown, Albany, or Burlington) have a 10" or greater snowfall, is a possibility. I do believe the Great Lakes' cities Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, etc., could see one big event with 10" or more snow at some point. The big cities of the East (Washington to Boston) will probably experience a moderate snowfall (2"-4:/3"-6" type) at some point later this winter. Boston might have the best chance out of the big cities to see a 10" or greater snowfall, but that isn't assured. Changeover cases may predominate. December's snowfall data could add or reduce confidence in these scenarios and, unfortunately, a worse case (<10" seasonal snowfall, inclusive of October's snowfall, in such cities as New York and Philadelphia) is still on the table. There already has been a KU storm this season... not this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just gets more and more depressing the more I read. I feel like I'm back in the late '90s. We all knew we'd have to pay for the slew of awesome winters at some point though, right? Hopefully, this'll just be one crappy one that precedes a few blockbuster ones (Don, please say saomething about my hopes having some merit ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If we are able to do a flip like we did last year, it's still is going to take time. The AO dropped below -5 on 12/18/10 and didn't rebound positive until later in January. So if we get lucky this year, maybe by early January we will see a pattern change? Blue wave, that's what I'm hoping for but would be happy if it occurred by mid Jan. However, without help I'm not sure how long it would last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 this winter had a record cold February with a KU storm... 1978 10 10 1.562 1978 10 11 1.925 1978 10 12 1.330 1978 10 13 0.828 1978 10 14 0.730 1978 10 15 0.634 1978 10 16 0.487 1978 10 17 0.529 1978 10 18 0.974 1978 10 19 1.615 1978 10 20 1.508 1978 10 21 1.486 1978 10 22 1.220 1978 10 23 1.243 1978 10 24 1.672 1978 10 25 1.822 1978 10 26 2.336 1978 10 27 2.547 1978 10 28 2.549 1978 10 29 2.909 1978 10 30 3.091 1978 10 31 3.294 1978 11 1 3.925 1978 11 2 4.544 1978 11 3 3.921 1978 11 4 3.105 1978 11 5 2.566 1978 11 6 2.307 1978 11 7 2.254 1978 11 8 2.940 1978 11 9 3.256 1978 11 10 3.509 1978 11 11 3.941 1978 11 12 3.825 1978 11 13 3.596 1978 11 14 3.392 1978 11 15 2.997 1978 11 16 2.803 1978 11 17 2.623 1978 11 18 2.776 1978 11 19 3.242 1978 11 20 4.009 1978 11 21 3.690 1978 11 22 3.348 1978 11 23 2.310 1978 11 24 0.581 1978 11 25 -1.222 1978 11 26 -2.138 1978 11 27 -1.428 1978 11 28 -0.018 1978 11 29 0.619 1978 11 30 0.174 1978 12 1 0.239 1978 12 2 0.390 1978 12 3 0.653 1978 12 4 0.540 1978 12 5 -0.483 1978 12 6 -1.686 1978 12 7 -2.057 1978 12 8 -1.255 1978 12 9 -0.298 1978 12 10 -0.266 1978 12 11 -0.166 1978 12 12 0.383 1978 12 13 1.064 1978 12 14 1.445 1978 12 15 0.541 1978 12 16 0.503 1978 12 17 0.674 1978 12 18 0.960 1978 12 19 -0.125 1978 12 20 -0.937 1978 12 21 -1.192 1978 12 22 -1.522 1978 12 23 -1.551 1978 12 24 -1.573 1978 12 25 -2.607 1978 12 26 -3.588 1978 12 27 -4.292 1978 12 28 -4.184 1978 12 29 -3.693 1978 12 30 -3.103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 My opinion doesn't mean anything, but I really think February will surprise alot of people as will the potential snowfall in the second half of January. I could explain my method but I'm not sure if it'd be taken well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Previously, the GFS ensembles hinted that the AO could dip below 0 for a short time in the near-term. IMO, that forecast was, in part, the result of initialization errors of > 1 standard deviation. Historic experience with super AO+ regimes argued against such a development. Since that time, the GFS ensembles have adjusted and now show the AO staying positive for the foreseeable future. That is consistent with a composite based on past occasions when the AO peaked at +5 or above. In fact, the GFS ensembles are forecasting a scenario that is very close to that of the 1989 AO+ regime (the single La Niña case when the AO peaked at +5 or above) when transposed on the current month. In conclusion, the current AO+ regime, which has now lasted 19 days, is likely to continue through the foreseeable future. It will likely continue into at least a part of January. For perspective, the 1989 AO+ regime lasted 68 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 What is interesting with the 1989 AO analogy was the record cold that followed in Texas. Significant freeze damage occured throughout the Lower Rio Grande Valley from that event. It will certainly be something I'll monitor as the month of December moves along. Thanks for the input as always, Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Don, really good stuff as usual. The stratospheric temps continue to be well below normal north of 60N also supporting the positive ao continuing for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Thanks Srain. Texas will probably have some good opportunities to see a number of strong cold shots this winter. It will be interesting to see if something rivaling the 1989 Arctic outbreak occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Don, really good stuff as usual. The stratospheric temps continue to be well below normal north of 60N also supporting the positive ao continuing for awhile. Thanks Wes. It is dsappointing how persistently cold the stratosphere remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 There has been a lot of talk about the persistence of this +AO scenario, but what is going to have to change for it to go away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 There has been a lot of talk about the persistence of this +AO scenario, but what is going to have to change for it to go away? comet, nuclear explosion, or sun dramatically going back to sleep our only hope is #3, but solar cycle 24 is still progressing towards its peak, so don't hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 comet, nuclear explosion, or sun dramatically going back to sleep our only hope is #3, but solar cycle 24 is still progressing towards its peak, so don't hold your breath Blue line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 this winter had a record cold February with a KU storm... 1978 10 10 1.562 1978 10 11 1.925 1978 10 12 1.330 1978 10 13 0.828 1978 10 14 0.730 1978 10 15 0.634 1978 10 16 0.487 1978 10 17 0.529 1978 10 18 0.974 1978 10 19 1.615 1978 10 20 1.508 1978 10 21 1.486 1978 10 22 1.220 1978 10 23 1.243 1978 10 24 1.672 1978 10 25 1.822 1978 10 26 2.336 1978 10 27 2.547 1978 10 28 2.549 1978 10 29 2.909 1978 10 30 3.091 1978 10 31 3.294 1978 11 1 3.925 1978 11 2 4.544 1978 11 3 3.921 1978 11 4 3.105 1978 11 5 2.566 1978 11 6 2.307 1978 11 7 2.254 1978 11 8 2.940 1978 11 9 3.256 1978 11 10 3.509 1978 11 11 3.941 1978 11 12 3.825 1978 11 13 3.596 1978 11 14 3.392 1978 11 15 2.997 1978 11 16 2.803 1978 11 17 2.623 1978 11 18 2.776 1978 11 19 3.242 1978 11 20 4.009 1978 11 21 3.690 1978 11 22 3.348 1978 11 23 2.310 1978 11 24 0.581 1978 11 25 -1.222 1978 11 26 -2.138 1978 11 27 -1.428 1978 11 28 -0.018 1978 11 29 0.619 1978 11 30 0.174 1978 12 1 0.239 1978 12 2 0.390 1978 12 3 0.653 1978 12 4 0.540 1978 12 5 -0.483 1978 12 6 -1.686 1978 12 7 -2.057 1978 12 8 -1.255 1978 12 9 -0.298 1978 12 10 -0.266 1978 12 11 -0.166 1978 12 12 0.383 1978 12 13 1.064 1978 12 14 1.445 1978 12 15 0.541 1978 12 16 0.503 1978 12 17 0.674 1978 12 18 0.960 1978 12 19 -0.125 1978 12 20 -0.937 1978 12 21 -1.192 1978 12 22 -1.522 1978 12 23 -1.551 1978 12 24 -1.573 1978 12 25 -2.607 1978 12 26 -3.588 1978 12 27 -4.292 1978 12 28 -4.184 1978 12 29 -3.693 1978 12 30 -3.103 Unc, That's the one I had brought up to you a month or so ago in regards to a possible winter analogue. It was a -PDO neutral enso( as opposed to la nina now) that went from a strongly positive ao to negative ao/nao January/February. That winter followed two brutal winters and the buzz was the opposite of the spectru may be the case the upcoming one as November was so mild throughout the East that ski resorts were concerned and at one point , (late November/early December) snow was shipped via rail to some of the NE resorts. You remember that? I don't think that type of flip will occur this year, as some other pattern players are on the field this year of which the experts, Wes, Don etc.; have exposed and detailed. However, there is that glimmer of hope, though it be dim, that something similar could occur this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Today, the AO reached +5.647. That demolishes the December record of +5.040 set on December 2, 1979 and is the second highest AO reading on record. Recordkeeping began in 1950. Not sure if maybe there were some recent adjustments to the AO readings, but the highest value I see now is +4.394 on Dec. 3rd. That would be a noteworthy difference. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Not sure if maybe there were some recent adjustments to the AO readings, but the highest value I see now is +4.394 on Dec. 3rd. That would be a noteworthy difference. http://www.cpc.ncep....ily.index.ascii I have some reservations about those revisions. They appear to put the AO into line with the initialization of the GFS ensembles, which had been off by 1-2 standard deviations around that time. However, on the re-analysis data, the area of 500 mb height anomalies < -300 mb was larger than that for a number of the AO +5 dates e.g. 2/25/1990. It fell short of the 2/26/1990 record value (+5.911). The ECMWF ensembles also initialized at greater than +4 around that time and that initialization was the basis of my suggesting that the AO had dropped below +4 after four consecutive days at or above +4. Given the above, I'm still comfortable with the idea that the current AO+ regime will continue for the time being before ending in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 To Add to Don's Discussion on the AO index, Using all the last daily occurrences in December as analogs that had a value of +3.5 or higher, and rolling them forward equals the graphic below. 10 Dates: 19511225 19711220 19751221 19791206 19831228 19841209 19901226 19911219 19991225 20061231 The last 3.5+ AO value was on Dec 6th,2011. Here are composite plots of the mean daily 500mb pattern right after the AO peaks at 3.5 Standard Deviations above normal in December. As of now, December 6th was the last date the AO got above +3.5 (That could change). Here is an animated gif of the initial analogs all the way out to 35 days after (5 day increments), as you can see, there is quite a change. That would mean in general 25-35 days (Lines up with Don's timing) from the 6th of December, things would begin to turn around as far as the cold pattern. But, if the AO peaks again past +3.5, this would reset back to a later initial date. 50 days after (Not Shown), there is also a hell of a signal for a -NAO pattern, I guess thats a plus, wouldn't happen Till Late January though, barring a more positive trend in the +AO again of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This morning's AO was +0.313. This is the 27th consecutive day on which the AO has been positive. Per the discussions earlier in this thread, odds favor the current AO+ regime lasting at least 30 days, and I believe it will. Even if the AO briefly dips into negative territory (indicated by a few ensemble members), the guidance strongly points to the AO's rising and remain stable at positive levels. In short, the Atlantic pattern remains relatively persistent. What is forecast to change is that the GFS ensembles are pointing to the PNA's going positive albeit not strongly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This morning's AO was +0.313. This is the 27th consecutive day on which the AO has been positive. Per the discussions earlier in this thread, odds favor the current AO+ regime lasting at least 30 days, and I believe it will. Even if the AO briefly dips into negative territory (indicated by a few ensemble members), the guidance strongly points to the AO's rising and remain stable at positive levels. In short, the Atlantic pattern remains relatively persistent. What is forecast to change is that the GFS ensembles are pointing to the PNA's going positive albeit not strongly positive. a hint of 70/71? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 a hint of 70/71? Ginx, I believe January 1971 saw a PNA-. However, there were several episodes of blocking (AO-). December was very blocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 This morning, the AO was +0.719, the 28th consecutive day on which it has been positive. Yesterday likely marked the lowest the AO will fall for the foreseeable future. The AO is forecast to continue to rise in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 This morning, the AO was +0.719, the 28th consecutive day on which it has been positive. Yesterday likely marked the lowest the AO will fall for the foreseeable future. The AO is forecast to continue to rise in coming days. Don, you beat me to it. The NAO is more positive than the AO and both are forecast to remain positive into the new year. Makse me feel good about the AO call that we made earlier in the month. I don't know whether you saw Jason's post showing a graph of seasonal snowfall based on enso state and the nao but la nina winters with a positive nao were the pits. It was a cool graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 So far through the first half of the month, the 500 mb anomalies are on the eastern side of the envelope like December 1999 with the big ridge near the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I don't know whether you saw Jason's post showing a graph of seasonal snowfall based on enso state and the nao but la nina winters with a positive nao were the pits. It was a cool graph. I did. It's a very nice graph, even if the outcome is ugly. P.S. For those who haven't seen Jason's graphs, they can be found at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/two-devastating-graphs-for-dc-snow-lovers/2011/12/15/gIQAASxOwO_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 FWIW, the following is a scatter diagram showing KU snowstorms during La Niña, Neutral, and El Niño ENSO situations for AO+ and AO- situations: The single La Niña KU snowstorm that commenced when the AO was positive was the January 24-26, 2000 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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