Snow_Miser Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Say hello to the 6 Z GFS... The GFS has been consistently switching between these three solutions because those are the solutions that the ENS show. Usually about 1/3 have shown a solution that is good for I-95, while a few take it inland, and others take it OTS. These have consistently balanced the mean out to show a solution just off of the coast. There were also some really interesting GEFS Individual snow maps from 6z today. c000 looks about the same as 0z. Another colder solution for I-95. NYC does well on this one. Congrats Philly/C NJ This Individual ENS shows more of an OTS scenario, so thus less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 At least we have two systems to watch in the next 8 to 10 days as apposed to 300 hours of 50-60s and rain chances.It is good that some models do have it cold enough for some snow, even if it is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 At least we have two systems to watch in the next 8 to 10 days as apposed to 300 hours of 50-60s and rain chances.It is good that some models do have it cold enough for some snow, even if it is a long shot. The weather is starting to get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 JB on Twitter Mid atlantic snow threat evolving on tail end of warmth, front part of cold period Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The #1 CIPS analog for the MA/SE region on the 00Z GFS for 120 hours is 12/13/89 which was a storm that hit DC/MD/DE very hard but completely missed our area, we received an epic bust ourselves about 36-48 hours later on the 14th and 15th. I think that this event is too timing sensitive to know much inside 72-84 hours whats going to happen, I doubt this will be a big time inland tracker, it could go slightly inland but its more likely to be a miss to the east I think. Just had a chance to look over the analogs. Only half of the analogs had a snowfall map available but of those I was surprised to find 5 of them actually show a hit for the mid Atlantic with only two showing hits farther north. Don't really follow the analogs that much so don't know their worth or tendencies but I did note that looking over the 500's of those that shows snow that have very little similarities to the 00Z mean projected for 120. If that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 6z GFS would be perfect for places around here since it gives several inches of snow.and then it gets real cold for at least a few days afterward, therefore preserving the snow. It would pretty much save the month of December if this happened. It's only the first week of December Control run of the 0z Euro keeps us on the NW fringe of the snow shield with only a dusting or so of accumulation on Thursday. 850's are around -5 the entire time. It really goes crazy with the storm the middle of the following week that the GFS also shows, taking a low from like Missouri to the DelMarva and deepening to a 996mb low as it exits the coast. Total precip of around 2 inches with most of it rain, but with 850's only around +2 or +3 and changing to snow before ending on Thursday afternoon with a few inches of accumulation. It is long duration also, all day Wednesday and Thursday. It keeps us cold the entire time, through 360 hrs with the warmest basically being for that storm and just before it, but no real warmth at all through the run. Where can I get the control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Do you have any vacation time to enjoy the holidays watching a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Do you have any vacation time to enjoy the holidays watching a snowstorm? I used my vacation hours in the Summer. I am going to take off for the holidays though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 except I wasn't talking abou that storm, i was talking about the rainstorm before it. Why? That storm was never the one in question.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 How funny would it be, through all that doom and gloom about December and winter as a whole, that we get a significant snow event and a below average temperature month. Any snow may be a long shot but it's certainly possible. Regardless of the snow, it definitely looks rather cold for a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 How funny would it be, through all that doom and gloom about December and winter as a whole, that we get a significant snow event and a below average temperature month. Any snow may be a long shot but it's certainly possible. Regardless of the snow, it definitely looks rather cold for a couple of weeks. It's certainly possible. Some people don't see that happening though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS just about almost back to what the models had last week. Stronger shortwave this run and less of an influence from the PV. Slowly gaining confidence on a rain storm now. GFS ensembles and ensemble mean should be interesting. Also for what it is worth H5 of the NAM has a stronger shortwave now and just about every SREF member is still stronger and more held back with the shortwave energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Earthlight can you root for GB today please, seeing how well you did with Georgia yesterday? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 JB is going with 3-6 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Someone please write something about the upcoming system that will make me believe that we might get some snow out of it. Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Someone please write something about the upcoming system that will make me believe that we might get some snow out of it. Go! There once was a man from nantucket.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 ****ALERT**** 12z gfs shows a huge upset today in east rutherford. giants 27 packers 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Earthlight can you root for GB today please, seeing how well you did with Georgia yesterday? Thanks. Done deal, man. I'm still pissed about that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Done deal, man. I'm still pissed about that game. when you hold LSU to 18 total yards at half, you better be up by more than 3pts. that was the game right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Now this is how December is supposed to feel, it's beautiful outside. I see some of the usual late peaking trees nearing peak/at peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Now this is how December is supposed to feel, it's beautiful outside. I see some of the usual late peaking trees nearing peak/at peak. i think you have dec confused with oct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Earthlight just cancelled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Is it me or did the newest mobile version of these forums that was implemented a few days ago is preventing me from viewing attached images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Is it me or did the newest mobile version of these forums that was implemented a few days ago is preventing me from viewing attached images? I thought I was the only one, I can only see certain images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I thought I was the only one, I can only see certain images. you can no longer see the red, green or black in the screen name either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yup same here on my ipod touch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Someone please write something about the upcoming system that will make me believe that we might get some snow out of it. Go! despite being sheared out, the associated vort max has a concentrated core. the strong pva leads me to believe that a heavy banded precip will be present. the fact that it's getting sheared out also leans toward a more southern system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 despite being sheared out, the associated vort max has a concentrated core. the strong pva leads me to believe that a heavy banded precip will be present. the fact that it's getting sheared out also leans toward a more southern system there's a trof split which helps... the northern side of the splitting trof acts as a de facto source of confluence, despite the fast flow and low pressure in southern canada. however, any timing differences with the speed of this northern side will change the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 there's a trof split which helps... the northern side of the splitting trof acts as a de facto source of confluence, despite the fast flow and low pressure in southern canada. however, any timing differences with the speed of this northern side will change the forecast. as well as the location of the polar vortex euro is colored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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